O uso de imagens de satélite tem aprimorado o estudo da dinâmica do uso do solo. Os mapeamentos da cobertura da terra se tornaram instrumentos fundamentais na avaliação das alterações na paisagem provocadas pela ação antrópica e sua influência sobre o planejamento regional e urbano. A utilização de ferramentas computacionais como os Sistemas de Informação Geográfica e os modelos hidrológicos têm auxiliado essas avaliações. O modelo hidrológico SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), desenvolvido pelo Departamento de Agricultura norte-americano, é um modelo de base física e parâmetros distribuídos, auxiliado por uma interface gráfica de software GIS. Por seu valor ambiental e econômico, a caracterização ambiental da área de drenagem da Represa de Itupararanga, com 936,54 \'KM POT.2\', localizada no estado de São Paulo, tem fundamental importância e a utilização de dados atuais permite que o estudo da área seja mais preciso no que diz respeito aos seus resultados. A partir de imagens do sensor Liss 3 do satélite ResourceSat-1, foi produzido o mapa atual de uso e ocupação do solo através da classificação supervisionada de máxima verossimilhança, validada por coletas de campo de ponto de controle com índice Kappa de 0,64 e índice de exatidão global de 71%. Os parâmetros morfológicos demonstraram que a área de estudo é bem drenada e possui baixa probabilidade de enchentes. A modelagem hidrológica foi calibrada para o período de janeiro de 2005 a dezembro de 2008 e resultou em coeficiente de eficiência de 0,41 e tendência percentual de 0%. A validação alcançou resultado de 0,301 e 5,5% para estes avaliadores, valores de ajuste considerados aceitáveis. Foram encontrados os valores de 9,66 e 1,5 para nitrogênio e fósforo, respectivamente, em kg/ha.ano, para os valores de poluição difusa, resultados elevados na comparação entre pesquisas com este foco. A comparação entre cenários identificou a necessidade de adotar práticas conservacionistas através do planejamento da ocupação para tornar sustentáveis as atividades dentro bacia e atenuar as pressões sobre os recursos naturais. / The use of satellite images has improved the study of the land use dynamics. Land cover mapping have become fundamental tools in the assessment of landscape changes caused by human action and its influence on regional and urban planning. Computation tools such as Geographic Information Systems and hydrological models have supported these findings. The hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), developed by U. S. Agriculture Department, a model physically based and semi-distributed parameters with a GIS graphical interface. Due your environmental and economic value, the morphologic characterization of Itupararanga watershed, with 936,54 \'KM POT.2\', located in São Paulo state, have fundamental relevance and use of current data alows the study be more accurate. From images of Liss 3 sensor of ResourceSat-1 satelite, the current land use map was produced through supervised classification by maximum likelihood method and validated by control points on field collection, resulting in Kappa coefficient of 0.64 and overall accuracy rate of 71%. The morphological parameters showed that watershed is well drained and has low probability of flooding. The hydrological modeling was calibrated from January of 2005 to December of 2008 and had efficient value of 0.41 and trend rate of zero. Validation reached results of de 0.301 and 5.5% for these coefficients, considered acceptable for adjust values. Were found values of 9.66 and 1.5 for nitrogen and phosphorus, in kg/ha.year, respectively, for the values of diffuse pollution, high results in comparison between studies with this focus. The comparison between scenarios indentified the need to adopt conservation pratices through occupation planning to make the activities inside the basin and mitigate the pressure on natural resources.

A expansão do cultivo de cana-de-açúcar motivada pelo aumento na demanda por etanol após lançamento da tecnologia fex fuel, resultou em grandes transformações na paisagem. O estado de São Paulo absorveu boa parte das áreas de expansão, que se instalaram em novas regiões do estado. A expansão ocorrida gera reflexões sobre os impactos ambientais negativos associados à cultura canavieira, sobretudo quanto às alterações no regime hidrossedimentológico das bacias hidrográficas. Neste contexto o presente estudo buscou avaliar a influência da expansão do cultivo da cana de açúcar sobre os aspectos hidrossedimentológicos (taxa de escorrimento superficial e produção de sedimento) em uma região onde houve um aumento significativo desta cultura. O local de estudo é a microbacia do córrego Cana do Reino, localizada no município de Votuporanga – SP. A avaliação se deu por meio de um comparativo entre as taxas de escorrimento e da produção de sedimentos para os cenários antes do período de expansão do cultivo desta cultura (2005) e após a expansão (2014), utilizando o Modelo SWAT. As simulações das vazões médias mensais apresentaram resultados satisfatórios após a calibração. Nesta etapa obtiveram-se valores para os coeficientes de eficiência de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), coeficiente de determinação (R²) e percentual de tendências (PBIAS) de respectivamente, 0,85, 0,82 e -1,5. Na validação observou-se valores de NSE, R² e PBIAS, iguais a 0,76, 0,81 e -9,0, respectivamente. Nas simulações contatou-se que as taxas médias de escorrimento superficial e produção de sedimentos para o cenário de 2005 foram de 44 mm e 2,6 ton.ha-1.ano-1. Para o cenário de 2014 obteve-se 70 mm e 4,5 ton.ha-1.ano-1. A partir dos resultados obtidos, conclui-se que o Modelo SWAT demonstrou-se satisfatório para a análise comparativa entre os cenários. / The expansion of sugar cane cultivation motivated by the increased demand for ethanol after the launching of the fex fuel technology has resulted in major changes in the landscape. São Paulo state has absorbed many of the expansion areas settled in new regions. Such an expansion has given rise to reflections on the negative environmental impacts associated with sugarcane crop, especially regarding changes in the hydrosedimentological regime of river basins. The present study evaluates the influence of the expansion of sugar cane cultivation on hydrosedimentological aspects (rate of runoff and sediment production) in a region of significant increase in this culture. The study site is Cana do Reino watershed, located in Votuporanga city – SP. The evaluation was conducted through a comparison between the runoff rates and sediment yield for the scenarios before (2005) and after their expansion (2014) and based on SWAT model. Simulations of monthly average flow rates showed satisfactory results after calibration. Values of 0.85, 0.82 and -1.5 were obtained for the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), coefficient of determination (R²) and percentage of trends (PBIAS), respectively. The validation showed values of NSE, R² and PBIAS of 0.76, 0.81 and -9.0, respectively. The simulations revealed the average rates of runoff and sediment yield for the 2005 scenario were 44 mm and 2.6 ton.ha-1.ano-1, whereas values of 70 mm and 4.5 ton.ha-1.ano-1 were obtained for the 2014 scenario. According to the results, SWAT model proved satisfactory for a comparative analysis between the scenarios.

Tanzania, like other developing countries in the tropics is severely affected by the degradation of water resources owing to improper land management practices. Such practices affect water supply through soil erosion which does not only cause sedimentation of rivers and water bodies but also leads to a reduction in the rainwater infiltration capacity of soils. This thesis seeks to demonstrate how the implementation of proper land management measures can reduce soil erosion and increase water supply in the Morogoro River catchment (Uluguru Mountains). The proper practices referred to are the soil and water conservation (SWC) approaches which include contour farming, fanya juu terracing and bench terracing. The thesis combines social science and geoscience methods in a synergetic manner to address this research problem. To understand how and to what degree SWC methods affect water fluxes and sediment yields, the hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied. Before carrying out the modelling procedures, it was necessary to examine the level of SWC adoption among farmers and factors influencing the process so as to establish the baseline. To this end, biophysical and socio-economic factors assumed to affect farmers’ adoption tendency were examined using a household questionnaire. Modelling results indicate that if correctly implemented contour farming, fanya juu terracing and bench terracing would significantly reduce sediment yield at different rates. The reduction would range approximately between 1% - 85% with the highest percentage change achieved by practicing the three SWC methods simultaneously. However, such SWC measures would not increase water flow annually owing to evapotranspiration losses. Nevertheless, according to modelling results groundwater storage would be increased by about 14% and hence contributing to water supply during the dry season. The household questionnaire survey suggests that the adoption of SWC methods in the study area is very low and complex. While age of the head of household, access to extension (professional) services, household annual income and proximity to the farm significantly influenced farmers’ decision to adopt SWC, gender of the head of household, slope characteristics of the farm, number of adults in the household and farmer’s perception on soil erosion effects had no considerable influence on adoption. Therefore, to successfully realize the SWC benefits demonstrated by the modelling results, smallholder farmers upstream of the catchment should be incentivized to implement proper land management practices. Payment for ecosystem services scheme appears to be a suitable strategy. To make this operational, the Tanzanian government should establish a national water fund which will finance watershed management activities. The methodological approach employed in this thesis is transferrable to other sites with problems comparable to the studied catchment.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Human actions modify the environment and increase the degradation of water resources, which are limited and fundamental to the maintenance of life. Thus, it is vital that these resources are quantified, so they can be evaluated and protected, in search of self-sustainability. The application of a hydrological model allows the simulation of different scenarios, becoming a tool for planning and management for the respective committee of the basin, where alternative uses can be simulated beforehand and measures for the preservation of the same. Hydrological processes, such as climatic variables, change the water regime and the hydrological response of the basin. This study presents the results of the simulations with the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model in a small watershed in Southern Brazil (latitude 29°38'37.49" and longitude 53°48'21.99"), representative of the Atlantic Forest biome. This area was monitored by two sequential stations, each one with one rain gauge and one stage gauge, having a contribution area of 4.5 km² and 12 km ² respectively. The altitudes in the basin range from 316 m to 431 m and vegetation is predominantly composed of 55% of native forest and 39% of native pasture. The simulated period was from June 2008 to December 2009, corresponding to the period of monitoring. The temperature ranged from -2.2°C to 39.2°C. The annual rainfall average ranged between 2005 mm and 2250 mm. The quality of the results was characterized by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index (NSE) and by the coefficient of determination (R²). The model was evaluated in a monthly and daily time step. At the monthly time step, the values obtained for NSE, in the calibration phase, were 0.80 and 0.60, respectively for the two sections. The values obtained for the R² were 0.81 and 0.61 in the same sections. In the daily time step, values obtained for NSE, in the calibration phase, was 0.36, for both sections. For R², these values were 0.38 and 0.37 in the respective sections. These results show that the fit was good for monthly values, but not for the daily. Due to the short period of monitoring, the validation of the model results was realized with the observed data from the middle section, with an area of 4.5 km². The values obtained for the NSE in the validation phase were 0.75 and 0.37 for the monthly and daily time step respectively, and for R², 0.75 and 0.37 for the monthly and daily values, which validate the fit. These results are in agreement with the values found by Paiva and Paiva (2006), who evaluated the SWAT in a downstream section, in the same basin, with an area of 18 km². These results show that the SWAT model fits well in this region with monthly time step. Probably, the low values of the adjustment for the daily time step and the main problems of using the model are due to the size of the basin, the short period of observed data and the need for more information on the physical characterization of the soil. Future climatic scenarios A2 (reflects the high emission of greenhouse gases and is considered pessimist) and B2 (reflects the low emission of greenhouse gases and is considered optimist) show that the maximum flows reach more extreme values in the future, the average temperature, maximum and minimum showed a variation of about 1° C. The pessimistic scenario considered A2 showed more extreme values so calculated as to the input data of water flow. / As ações antrópicas modificam o meio ambiente e aumentam o processo de degradação dos recursos hídricos, os quais são limitados e fundamentais à manutenção da vida. Deste modo, é vital que estes recursos sejam quantificados, para que possam ser avaliados e protegidos, em busca da auto-sustentabilidade. A aplicação de um modelo hidrológico possibilita a simulação de diferentes cenários, constituindo-se uma ferramenta de planejamento e gestão para o respectivo comitê da bacia, onde alternativas de uso poderão ser simuladas e medidas previamente para a preservação da mesma. Processos hidrológicos, como as variáveis climáticas, alteram o regime hídrico e a resposta hidrológica da bacia. Este trabalho apresenta os resultados da simulação com o modelo SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) em uma pequena bacia representativa do Bioma Mata Atlântica, no Sul do Brasil (latitude 29°38'37,49" e longitude 53°48'21,99"), monitorada por duas estações fluviográficas/pluviográficas seqüenciais, com área de contribuição de 4,5 Km² e 12 km² respectivamente. As altitudes na bacia variam de 316,21 m a 431,21 m e a cobertura vegetal predominante é composta por 55% de mata nativa e 39 % de campo nativo. O período simulado foi de junho de 2008 a dezembro de 2009, correspondendo ao período de monitoramento. A temperatura variou entre -2,2 °C a 39,2 °C. A precipitação média anual variou entre 2005 mm e 2250 mm. A qualidade do ajuste dos resultados foi caracterizada pelo índice de eficiência de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) e pelo coeficiente de determinação R². O modelo foi avaliado na escala mensal e diária. Na escala mensal os valores obtidos para NSE, na fase de calibração, foram de 0,80 e 0,60, respectivamente para as duas seções. Os valores obtidos para o R² foram 0,81 e 0,61 nas mesmas seções. Na escala diária os valores obtidos para NSE, na fase de calibração, foram de 0,36, para ambas as seções e os valores obtidos para o R² foram 0,38 e 0,37 nas respectivas seções. Estes resultados mostram que o ajuste foi satisfatório para valores mensais, o mesmo não ocorrendo para valores diários. Devido ao pequeno período de monitoramento, para a verificação da qualidade do ajuste dos resultados do modelo utilizou-se os resultados obtidos na seção fluviométrica intermediária, com área de 4,5 Km². Os valores obtidos para o índice de eficiência de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) na verificação foram 0,75 para simulação mensal e 0,37 para a simulação diária e os valores obtidos para o coeficiente de determinação (R²) foram 0,75 para valores mensais e 0,37 para valores diários, o que valida o ajuste obtido. Estes resultados estão em concordância com os valores encontrados por Paiva e Paiva (2006), que avaliaram o SWAT em uma seção de jusante, na mesma bacia, com área de 18 km². Os resultados mostram que o modelo SWAT se adapta bem nesta região com discretização mensal. Provavelmente, os baixos valores de ajuste na calibração diária e os principais problemas de utilização do modelo são devidos ao tamanho da bacia, ao pequeno período de dados e a necessidade de maiores informações sobre a caracterização física do solo. Os cenários climáticos futuros A2 (reflete a alta emissão de gases de efeito estufa, sendo considerado pessimista) e B2 (reflete a baixa emissão de gases de efeito estufa, sendo considerado otimista) mostraram que as vazões máximas poderão alcançar valores mais extremos no futuro; as temperaturas médias, máximas e mínimas apresentaram uma variação aproximada de 1ºC. O cenário A2 considerado pessimista apresentou valores mais extremos tanto para vazão calculada como para os dados de entrada.

De nombreuses études portant sur les impacts du changement climatique sur la ressource en eau ont été réalisées à l'échelle des grands bassins versants continentaux, celle des petits bassins versants demeurant peu étudiée. La région Bourgogne se situe à la croisée de plusieurs bassins hydrographiques (Seine, Loire, Rhône), et offre une grande diversité de contextes hydrogéologiques. Les impacts du changement climatique sont susceptibles de varier localement et leur détermination requiert l'implémentation d'une chaîne de modélisation hydroclimatique à l'échelle locale. L'objectif de cette thèse a consisté en la mise en place d'un tel outil de modélisation à l'échelle des petits bassins versants de Bourgogne. Un échantillon de bassins versants et deux modèles hydrologiques de conceptualisation différente ont été choisis : un modèle pluie-débit global (GR4J) et un modèle semi-distribué à base physique (SWAT). Ces modèles ont permis d'approcher les différents aspects des impacts sur la ressource en eau (débit à l'exutoire, ressource spatialisée, qualité de l'eau). Les modèles ont été calibrés, et leur robustesse a été testée en contexte de changement climatique, validant ainsi leur utilisation sur une période future. Une désagrégation spatiale des données climatiques a été nécessaire afin d'alimenter les modèles hydrologiques sur la période de projection. L'analyse de données observées a permis de mettre en évidence une rupture dans les températures de surface en 1987/88 (en Bourgogne comme en France métropolitaine), et une modification des régimes hydrologiques de part et d'autre de cette rupture. Les projections réalisées sur la période 1980-2100 ont permis de montrer : i) peu d'évolution des débits moyens annuels mais une accentuation de la saisonnalité, via une augmentation des débits hivernaux et une diminution des débits estivaux, en lien avec le régime des précipitations et avec l'augmentation de l'évapotranspiration. ii) des indicateurs d'étiages montrant une aggravation de leur sévérité et une emprise temporelle plus grande durant l'année hydrologique, iii) une qualité de l'eau dégradée. Afin d'ouvrir de nouvelles perspectives grâce à cette chaîne de modélisation (en termes aide à la décision), l'aptitude de la chaîne de modélisation à évaluer les impacts de divers scénarios de changement de pratiques agricoles a été testée. / Numerous studies dealing with climate change impacts on water ressources have been done at global scale, but the moderated size watersheds scale is less studied. The Burgundy region is located over several hydrographical basins (Seine, Loire and Rhône river), and provides a great diversity of hydrogeological and climate contexts. For these reasons, impacts of climate change on water resources are expected to be very different in space, and require an entire hydroclimatic modelling chain at local scale to be assessed. The main objective of this thesis consisted of the implementation of a modelling tool at the moderated-size watersheds scale of Burgundy. In this way, several watersheds and two hydrological models have been chosen : a global and empirical rainfall-runoff model (GR4J) and a physical based and semi-spatialised model (SWAT). These two models allow us to assess every aspects of climate change impacts : quantitative (streamflow and spatialised ressource) and qualitative impacts.Models have been calibrated, including a cross calibration/validation test in climate contrasted periods, to confirm their robustness. A disaggregation of global climate data has been done in order to feed models during projection.Observations analysis highlighted a climate shift (in Burgundy as well as over the entire french territory), resulting in a modification of hydrological regime. Models projection over the XXIth century showed i) not much evolution of annual streamflow, but an accented seasonality, with an increase of winter streamflow, and a decrease of summer streamflow, linked with the rainfall regime and the evapotranspiration increase, ii) drought flow indices showing an increase of severity of the drought flow period, iii) a decrease in water quality. In order to explore the capacities of the modelling chain, several sensibility tests have been done, based on management practices scenarios.

O modelo Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) tem sido utilizado para avaliar os impactos do uso e manejo da terra nos recursos hídricos, sedimentos e agroquímicos em diversas escalas e condições ambientais em todo o mundo. Entretanto, pelo fato de ter sido desenvolvido em centros de pesquisa norte-americanos, alguns parâmetros e rotinas de simulação não refletem adequadamente determinados processos de bacias localizadas em regiões tropicais. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho visou aprimorar a modelagem hidrológica do SWAT através da revisão e modificação de processos relacionados à simulação da evapotranspiração. Os procedimentos propostos incluíram a alteração das rotinas de dormência vegetal no código fonte do modelo e a modificação dos cronogramas de operações de manejo e parâmetros do banco de dados de crescimento das plantas, visando reproduzir com maior precisão o ciclo das culturas em bacias tropicais. As modificações foram testadas em cinco bacias localizadas no Estado de São Paulo, com áreas entre 42 e 5.959 km², sendo comparados os resultados obtidos antes e depois da implementação das mesmas. Com as alterações, a análise do balanço hídrico anual evidenciou um aumento nos valores de evapotranspiração de cerca de 61% nas bacias, aproximando-se dos totais anuais de evapotranspiração calculados através de métodos empíricos, bem como houve redução significativa do escoamento superficial. Verificou-se uma melhoria da simulação de vazão em todas as bacias, sendo obtidos valores superiores para o Coeficiente de Eficiência de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) quando comparados à simulação sem as alterações. A calibração e validação foram realizadas com base na simulação modificada, sendo obtidos valores de NSE mensais entre 0,71 e 0,93 na calibração e 0,53 e 0,88 na validação, enquanto os valores diários de NSE situaram-se entre 0,51 e 0,82 na calibração e 0,38 e 0,83 na validação. A calibração a partir de uma simulação na qual as distorções dos processos hidrológicos da bacia estivessem previamente minimizadas resultou em bons resultados sem alteração excessiva dos parâmetros, indicando uma simulação hidrológica de melhor consistência. / The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in a wide range of scales and environmental conditions across the globe. However, originally developed in the United States, some parameters and routines are unrealistic for simulating in tropical watersheds. In this sense, this work aims to improve the hydrologic modeling of SWAT model by reviewing and modifying parameters and routines related to evapotranspiration process. In order to adequately represent crop growth in tropical basins, the proposed procedures included changes in dormancy routines of SWAT source code and modifications of scheduled management operations and plant growth database parameters. These modifications were tested in five different basins at São Paulo State, Brazil, with areas ranging from 42 to 5959 km², by comparing the results before and after their implementation. Annual water balance analysis showed an increase in evapotranspiration about 61% for basins, approaching the total annual evapotranspiration estimated by empirical methods. Hence, it was observed that surface runoff and base flow components showed a decrease. The modifications resulted in improved flow simulation for all basins, showing better Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) values compared to the unchanged simulation. Calibration and validation processes used the modified simulation database, being achieved monthly NSE between 0.71 – 0.73 at calibration and 0.53 – 0.88 at validation, while daily NSE were 0.51 – 0.82 at calibration and 0.38 – 0.83 at validation. Overall, minimizing distortions in hydrological processes at pre-calibration step resulted in good estimations without excessive modification of parameters at calibration, attesting a consistent hydrological modeling for the basins analyzed.

Tanzania, like other developing countries in the tropics is severely affected by the degradation of water resources owing to improper land management practices. Such practices affect water supply through soil erosion which does not only cause sedimentation of rivers and water bodies but also leads to a reduction in the rainwater infiltration capacity of soils. This thesis seeks to demonstrate how the implementation of proper land management measures can reduce soil erosion and increase water supply in the Morogoro River catchment (Uluguru Mountains). The proper practices referred to are the soil and water conservation (SWC) approaches which include contour farming, fanya juu terracing and bench terracing. The thesis combines social science and geoscience methods in a synergetic manner to address this research problem. To understand how and to what degree SWC methods affect water fluxes and sediment yields, the hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied. Before carrying out the modelling procedures, it was necessary to examine the level of SWC adoption among farmers and factors influencing the process so as to establish the baseline. To this end, biophysical and socio-economic factors assumed to affect farmers’ adoption tendency were examined using a household questionnaire. Modelling results indicate that if correctly implemented contour farming, fanya juu terracing and bench terracing would significantly reduce sediment yield at different rates. The reduction would range approximately between 1% - 85% with the highest percentage change achieved by practicing the three SWC methods simultaneously. However, such SWC measures would not increase water flow annually owing to evapotranspiration losses. Nevertheless, according to modelling results groundwater storage would be increased by about 14% and hence contributing to water supply during the dry season. The household questionnaire survey suggests that the adoption of SWC methods in the study area is very low and complex. While age of the head of household, access to extension (professional) services, household annual income and proximity to the farm significantly influenced farmers’ decision to adopt SWC, gender of the head of household, slope characteristics of the farm, number of adults in the household and farmer’s perception on soil erosion effects had no considerable influence on adoption. Therefore, to successfully realize the SWC benefits demonstrated by the modelling results, smallholder farmers upstream of the catchment should be incentivized to implement proper land management practices. Payment for ecosystem services scheme appears to be a suitable strategy. To make this operational, the Tanzanian government should establish a national water fund which will finance watershed management activities. The methodological approach employed in this thesis is transferrable to other sites with problems comparable to the studied catchment.

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-10-31T10:58:58Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Aldrei Marucci Veiga - 2014.pdf: 5268745 bytes, checksum: 0e3ad5ec1cc47d54396dd6386dfc2034 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-10-31T13:53:40Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Aldrei Marucci Veiga - 2014.pdf: 5268745 bytes, checksum: 0e3ad5ec1cc47d54396dd6386dfc2034 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-31T13:53:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Aldrei Marucci Veiga - 2014.pdf: 5268745 bytes, checksum: 0e3ad5ec1cc47d54396dd6386dfc2034 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-19 / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Goiás - FAPEG / This research paper focus on the analysis of SWAT model calibration in terms of flow and sediment in Samambaia River Basin, a small watershed (32.78 km2) located at Goiânia, Brazil. Streamflow and suspended sediment daily measurements have been carried out by February to December 2013 and climatic data were obtained form a weather station located inside the basin. Terrain data such as Digital Elevation Model (DEM), soil types, and land use were on the SWAT autocalibration too as well as on SWAT-CUP software, which is a specific too for automatic calibration. Initially, the simulation run in SWAT overestimated values of runoff peak and underestimated minimum discharges. However, the peaks were minimized and minimum discharges were adjusted to the observed flows after sensitivity analysis. By using different optimization schemes (GLUE, PARASOL and SUFI-2) in SWAT-CUP, an automatic calibration analysis has been done, which presented a better fit to the observed values (start with streamflow, than move to sediment). Statistical analysis using the coefficient of Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (COE) resulted in 0.80 and 0.88 for runoff and suspended sediment, respectively, which are considered good fits between simulated and observed values. The CN parameter, which is related to soil type, land use, and infiltration, showed the highest sensitivity in the calibration. After that, the alpha factor of base flow was another which showed higher sensitivity. The higher value obtained for the Manning roughness coefficient allows runoff to be damped. With regard to sediment calibration, parameters of sediment from landscape (USLE_P and USLE_C) as well as parameters of sediment from channel (SPCON and SPEXP) have been used in the calibration, once that they have shown higher sensibility. / O objetivo desta pesquisa é fazer a análise da calibração do modelo SWAT em termos de fluxo e sedimentos na bacia do Córrego Samambaia, uma microbacia (32,78km2), localizada em Goiânia, Brasil. Medições diárias de vazões e sedimentos foram realizadas em Fevereiro a Dezembro de 2013, e os dados climáticos foram obtidos a partir de uma estação meteorológica localizada no interior da bacia. Dados do terreno, tais como Elevação Digital do Terreno (MDT), tipos de solos e usos da terra foram obtidos do Sistema de Informação e Estatística de Goiás (SIEG). Análises foram realizadas na ferramenta autocalibração do SWAT, bem como no software SWAT-CUP, que é uma ferramenta específica para a calibração automática. Inicialmente, a execução da simulação no SWAT superestimou os valores de pico do escoamento e subestimou as vazões mínimas. No entanto, os picos foram minimizados e as vazões mínimas foram ajustadas para os fluxos observados após análise de sensibilidade. Ao utilizar diferentes esquemas de otimização (GLUE, ParaSol e Sufi-2) no SWAT-CUP, uma análise de calibração automática foi feito, que apresentou um melhor ajuste aos valores observados (começando pela vazão a qual altera o sedimento). A análise estatística do coeficiente de eficiência de Nach-Sutcliffe (COE) resultou em 0,80 e 0,88 para o escoamento superficial e sedimentos em suspensão, respectivamente, que são considerados bons ajustes entre os valores simulados e observados. O parâmetro CN, que está relacionado com o tipo de solo, uso da terra e infiltração, apresentou maior sensibilidade na calibração. Depois disso, o fator alfa de fluxo de base foi outra que mostrou maior sensibilidade. Quanto maior for o valor obtido para o coeficiente de rugosidade de Manning permite que o escoamento seja amortecido. No que diz respeito a calibração dos sedimentos, os parâmetros de sedimentos de paisagem (USLE_P e USLE_C), bem como os parâmetros de sedimentos a partir do canal (SPCON e SPEXP) tem sido utilizados na calibração, uma vez que eles mostraram maior sensibilidade.

No description available.

Master of Science / Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering / Kyle R. Douglas-Mankin / Radar-derived P3 data from Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) of the National Weather Service (NWS) offer higher spatial resolution than precipitation gauge data, which might improve the accuracy of streamflow simulations using watershed models. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of spatially-averaged subwatershed-specific NEXRAD P3 data on streamflow simulations using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The SWAT hydrologic model was chosen for this study to simulate the hydrologic processes in North Fork Ninnescah Watershed located in south-central Kansas. A precipitation gauge station for each subwatershed was created using an area-weighted average of NEXRAD P3 precipitation estimates for all HRAP grid cells covering the subwatershed. The SWAT model was calibrated with both NEXRAD P3 data and NCDC precipitation gauge (PG) data from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2008. The P3-calibrated model was validated using PG data for the same simulation period (2002-2008), and vice versa. The PG-calibrated model yielded slightly higher daily Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (E(subscript)NS = 0.40) than P3 calibrated model (ENS = 0.35), but the yearly ENS and PBIAS for P3 calibrated model (ENS = 0.80) was much better than PG-calibrated model (ENS = 0.43). The P3-validated model (PG calibration) had yearly ENS = of 0.70, whereas the PGcalibrated model had ENS = 0.43. The daily PBIAS value for P3-calibrated model in 2007 (wet year) was -14.13 and for the P3-calibrated model was -32.83; PG data overestimated the streamflow compared to P3 data in 2007. The P3 data has better agreement with PG data from 2002-2008 period than for 1996-2001 period. The streamflow estimation was better with NEXRAD P3 precipitation data in both calibration and validation runs. Even though the model was calibrated with PG data, the validated model with P3 data has comparatively high ENS. The spatial variation of streamflow response within the watershed was greater compared to the temporal variation in both the calibrated models. The spatial representation of precipitation data by NEXRAD P3 has improved the modeling performance compared to PG data; it is evident that NEXRAD data is an alternative to precipitation gauge measurements.