A systematic approach to planning, decision-making and management has become best-practice in conservation over the past two of decades. The field of ‘systematic conservation planning’ is concerned with identifying cost-effective places and actions to protect biological diversity. Past research has focused on static assessments. However, given the fact that biological diversity and processes that threaten its persistence vary in space and time, conservation assessments might need to be made in a dynamic context. In addition, we must explicitly account for the trade-offs associated with implementing conservation actions and investing in improved knowledge and learning to reduce uncertainty on where, how and when to act. The aim of this thesis was to develop novel approaches for accounting for both ecosystem dynamics and uncertainty in conservation planning. Ecosystems are generally treated as static in conservation planning despite many being spatially and temporally dynamic. For example, pelagic marine ecosystems are quite dynamic because ecological processes, such as eddies, that produce resources that many species depend on can be erratic. In chapter two we explored the issue of developing a system of fixed protected areas that consider the physical and biological dynamics typical of the pelagic realm. The approach was to maximize the representation of key fisheries species and species of conservation concern due to significant declines in their abundance, within a network of protected areas. We also ensured that protected area design reflected system dynamics and this was achieved by representing key oceanographic process (such as upwellings and eddies), and biological processes (such as the abundance of small pelagic fish) in protected areas. To account for the variability where these processes occur, we used time series data to find both predictable areas and anomalies, assuming that their past location was somewhat reflective of their future locations. Implementing conservation actions that are fixed in space and time are probably not the most effective strategy in ecosystems that are dynamic. This is because of the movements of particular species. For example, many species have distributions and abundances that change seasonally and might only require temporary management in particular areas. In chapter three, we tested the utility of three approaches to implementing fisheries closures to reduce bycatch in the South African Longline Fishery; 1) time closures, 2) permanent spatial closures and 3) episodic spatial closures. In chapter three, we identified these closures using an existing database containing catch and bycatch data from 1998 to 2005. There was variation where and when different species were caught as bycatch, and it was determined seasonal area closures were the best strategy. This was because it achieved the same conservation objectives for bycatch species as the other types of closures, but impacted less on the long-lining industry. While this result is intuitive, it demonstrated quantitatively, how much more effective moveable management can be. Decisions on where conservation actions are implemented are always based on incomplete knowledge about biological diversity. It is generally assumed that gathering more data is a good investment for conservation planning. However, data can take time and incur costs to collect and given habitat loss, there are both costs and benefits associated with different levels of investments in knowledge versus conservation implementation. In chapter four, the aim was to determine the return on investment from spending different amounts on survey data before undertaking a program of implementing new protected areas. We found that, after an investment of only US$100,000, there was little increase in the effectiveness of conservation actions, despite the full species dataset costing at least 25 times that amount. Surveying can take time because of expertise limitations, logistics and funding shortfalls. Biological diversity may be lost while data collection occurs conversely, not collecting enough data can lead to erroneous decisions. Additionally, resources spent on learning may be better spent on other actions. In chapter five, in a series of retrospective simulations, we compared the impact of spending different amounts of time collecting biological data prior to the implementation of new protected areas. The aim was to find the optimal survey period given the trade-off between gaining knowledge to improve conservation decisions while there is concurrent loss of habitat. We discovered that surveying beyond two years rarely increased the effectiveness of conservation decisions, despite a substantial increase in the knowledge of species distributions. Often there are choices between different actions and uncertainty as to which are the most effective. In chapter six, we discuss how the principles of adaptive management might be applied to conservation planning. Improving future management decisions through learning should be viewed as essential in all conservation plans but such learning is often included as a minor step, or is completely ignored. In this chapter we provide a brief overview of an adaptive framework for conservation planning and ideas for future research.

A systematic approach to planning, decision-making and management has become best-practice in conservation over the past two of decades. The field of ‘systematic conservation planning’ is concerned with identifying cost-effective places and actions to protect biological diversity. Past research has focused on static assessments. However, given the fact that biological diversity and processes that threaten its persistence vary in space and time, conservation assessments might need to be made in a dynamic context. In addition, we must explicitly account for the trade-offs associated with implementing conservation actions and investing in improved knowledge and learning to reduce uncertainty on where, how and when to act. The aim of this thesis was to develop novel approaches for accounting for both ecosystem dynamics and uncertainty in conservation planning. Ecosystems are generally treated as static in conservation planning despite many being spatially and temporally dynamic. For example, pelagic marine ecosystems are quite dynamic because ecological processes, such as eddies, that produce resources that many species depend on can be erratic. In chapter two we explored the issue of developing a system of fixed protected areas that consider the physical and biological dynamics typical of the pelagic realm. The approach was to maximize the representation of key fisheries species and species of conservation concern due to significant declines in their abundance, within a network of protected areas. We also ensured that protected area design reflected system dynamics and this was achieved by representing key oceanographic process (such as upwellings and eddies), and biological processes (such as the abundance of small pelagic fish) in protected areas. To account for the variability where these processes occur, we used time series data to find both predictable areas and anomalies, assuming that their past location was somewhat reflective of their future locations. Implementing conservation actions that are fixed in space and time are probably not the most effective strategy in ecosystems that are dynamic. This is because of the movements of particular species. For example, many species have distributions and abundances that change seasonally and might only require temporary management in particular areas. In chapter three, we tested the utility of three approaches to implementing fisheries closures to reduce bycatch in the South African Longline Fishery; 1) time closures, 2) permanent spatial closures and 3) episodic spatial closures. In chapter three, we identified these closures using an existing database containing catch and bycatch data from 1998 to 2005. There was variation where and when different species were caught as bycatch, and it was determined seasonal area closures were the best strategy. This was because it achieved the same conservation objectives for bycatch species as the other types of closures, but impacted less on the long-lining industry. While this result is intuitive, it demonstrated quantitatively, how much more effective moveable management can be. Decisions on where conservation actions are implemented are always based on incomplete knowledge about biological diversity. It is generally assumed that gathering more data is a good investment for conservation planning. However, data can take time and incur costs to collect and given habitat loss, there are both costs and benefits associated with different levels of investments in knowledge versus conservation implementation. In chapter four, the aim was to determine the return on investment from spending different amounts on survey data before undertaking a program of implementing new protected areas. We found that, after an investment of only US$100,000, there was little increase in the effectiveness of conservation actions, despite the full species dataset costing at least 25 times that amount. Surveying can take time because of expertise limitations, logistics and funding shortfalls. Biological diversity may be lost while data collection occurs conversely, not collecting enough data can lead to erroneous decisions. Additionally, resources spent on learning may be better spent on other actions. In chapter five, in a series of retrospective simulations, we compared the impact of spending different amounts of time collecting biological data prior to the implementation of new protected areas. The aim was to find the optimal survey period given the trade-off between gaining knowledge to improve conservation decisions while there is concurrent loss of habitat. We discovered that surveying beyond two years rarely increased the effectiveness of conservation decisions, despite a substantial increase in the knowledge of species distributions. Often there are choices between different actions and uncertainty as to which are the most effective. In chapter six, we discuss how the principles of adaptive management might be applied to conservation planning. Improving future management decisions through learning should be viewed as essential in all conservation plans but such learning is often included as a minor step, or is completely ignored. In this chapter we provide a brief overview of an adaptive framework for conservation planning and ideas for future research.

The overexploitation of coastal ecosystems continues to threaten global biodiversity and fisheries. This has prompted international conservation commitments, such as the Convention of Biological Diversity’s Aichi Target 11, to improve the coverage and integrity of marine protected area (MPA) networks worldwide. As reflected in Target 11, MPA networks need to be both ecologically representative and socially equitable. Systematic conservation planning (SCP) is an effective and efficient process for designing MPA networks to achieve biodiversity targets at minimal impacts to society. However, SCP has rarely been used effectively to develop MPA networks in developing nations. Three key challenges contribute to this ‘research-implementation’ gap: (1) SCP research concepts and tools are biased towards developed countries, (2) complete and high-quality datasets are lacking in developing countries, and (3) socioeconomic complexities and needs of stakeholders tend to be oversimplified. In working towards addressing these challenges, this thesis focuses on Sogod Bay as a Philippines case study to examine the following overarching research question “How can systematic conservation planning be applied as a framework for designing MPAs to achieve national biodiversity objectives in a manner that is socially equitable and accommodating to the needs of coastal communities?”. To help answer this question, the thesis addresses three research objectives: 1. Develop and document strategies for incorporating dimensions of equity (recognition, procedural, and distributive) for stakeholders and coastal communities in the planning stages of SCP. 2. Investigate how recognition and procedural equity can impact the systematic design of MPA plans in terms of biodiversity representation, spatial efficiency, and distributive equity for fisher stakeholder groups and communities. 3. Evaluate and compare MPAs designed using a SCP approach with more conventional planning approaches in terms of their impacts on representation and social equity. Objective one and two were assessed in Chapter two of this thesis. The findings of this chapter demonstrate how equity considerations can be integrated in the planning stages of SCP though consulting with local partners; integrating science-driven and participatory approaches; recognizing the key stakeholder groups of MPAs (recognition equity); engaging with representatives of each stakeholder group and community to inform MPA planning processes (procedural equity), and distributing costs of MPAs fairly across all stakeholder groups and communities (distributive equity). Additionally, the chapter demonstrates how inadequate inclusion of stakeholders and/or the variations between communities can disproportionately impact some fishers and communities more than others. Objective three was achieved through the findings of Chapter three, which investigated impacts on representation and equity from MPA plans derived under a SCP approach and two conventional planning approaches. MPAs planned and selected by communities resulted in inadequately representation and unfair distributions of costs across fisheries and community. A donor-assisted approach that used local knowledge to select MPAs resulted in a plan with near-optimal representation but was inequitable for fisheries and communities. The SCP approach was the only approach to produce a representative and equitable MPA plan, thus highlighting the utility of SCP for achieving the representation and equity aspects of Target 11. / Graduate

O crescimento dos sistemas de áreas protegidas nas últimas décadas é considerado um dos maiores esforços da humanidade para conter a atual crise da biodiversidade. No entanto, a cobertura da superfície global por áreas protegidas é um indicador simplificado, sendo necessário ir mais além e avaliar se os sistemas de áreas protegidas representam os diferentes componentes da biodiversidade e processos ecológicos e se estão sendo geridos de forma efetiva para garantir a manutenção da biodiversidade no longo prazo. O objetivo geral do presente estudo foi realizar uma análise da efetividade de gestão e representatividade biológica do sistema de unidades de conservação (UCs) no Estado do Tocantins, avaliando como os diferentes níveis de gestão de áreas protegidas podem interferir nos processos de planejamento sistemático da conservação. Os resultados indicaram a existência de lacunas significativas na implementação das áreas protegidas existentes, apesar do desempenho relativamente bom em alguns elementos. As quatro ameaças mais importantes para o sistema de UCs avaliado foram: infraestrutura, queimadas descontroladas, caça e pecuária. A análise da distribuição de 109 espécies de vertebrados e plantas indicou a presença de padrões biogeográficos claros na biota do Tocantins, que coincidem com padrões relatados por outros autores para alguns grupos taxônomicos. No entanto, lacunas significativas foram observadas tanto na proteção das espécies, quanto na representação dos elementos bióticos identificados. Para testar os impactos dos baixos valores de efetividade e altos valores de ameaças das UCs no planejamento do sistema, reduzimos o estado de conservação das áreas protegidas em 25% e 50%. Isso resultou em acréscimos de 250.000 ha e 590.000 ha, respectivamente, no sistema de áreas protegidas, necessário ao cumprimento das metas de conservação. A representatividade dos sistemas de áreas protegidas depende da persistência da biodiversidade dentro dessas áreas, que é reconhecidamente comprometida por níveis elevados de ameaça associados à efetividade de gestão incipiente. Portanto, sugerimos que o estado de conservação da biodiversidade dentro das áreas protegidas seja incorporado a exercícios de planejamento sistemático de conservação. A definição de prioridades para a criação de novas áreas protegidas deve fazer parte de um planejamento integrado, que aborde também a consolidação de áreas protegidas existentes e estratégias mais amplas para mitigar os efeitos dos fatores principais da perda de biodiversidade fora das reservas. / The growth of protected areas (PAs) in the last decades is considered one of the humanity\'s best efforts to refrain the current crisis of biodiversity. However, the global PA coverage is a simplified indicator; it is necessary to go further and assess whether PA systems represent the different components of biodiversity and ecological processes and are being managed effectively to ensure the maintenance of their values in the long term. The main goal of this study was to analyze the management effectiveness and representation of PA system in Tocantins State, assessing how the different levels of PA management may impact the systematic conservation planning process. Results indicated the existence of significant gaps in the implementation of Tocantins PAs, despite the relatively good performance found in some elements. The four most important threats to the PAs evaluated were: infrastructure, uncontrolled fires, hunting and cattle ranching. Analysis of the distribution of 109 vertebrates and plants indicated that selected species represent biogeographical patterns of Tocantins biota and that there are significant gaps in the protection of the species and biotic elements in the current PA system. In order to test for the effects of detected low management effectiveness and high levels of threat, we reduced the conservation status of protected areas by 25% and 50%. This resulted in an increase in the conservation area network needed to achieve targets of around 250,000 ha and 590,000 ha, respectively. Our results strongly indicate that the representation of PA systems depends on the persistency of biodiversity inside PAs, which are known to be impacted by high levels of threat associated to poor management effectiveness. Therefore, we advocate that biodiversity status within PAs should be incorporated in systematic conservation planning exercises. The definition of priority areas for the establishment of new reserves should be part of an integrated planning process that addresses both the consolidation of existing protected areas and broader strategies to mitigate the effects of major drivers of biodiversity loss outside reserves.

Deep-sea benthic ecosystems remain poorly studied in South Africa, limiting understanding of community biodiversity patterns and their environmental drivers. This is one of the first studies to (i) visually investigate marine epifaunal community patterns and their environmental drivers along the Agulhas ecoregion outer shelf, shelf edge and upper slope to support marine ecosystem classification and mapping, and (ii) to determine the conservation targets for selected national marine ecosystem types to inform improved management of the marine environment, through Marine Spatial Planning processes. Visual surveys of the seabed were conducted to quantify epifauna during the ACEP Deep Secrets Cruise in 2016, using a towed benthic camera system. Twenty-nine sites were sampled, ranging from 120-700 m in depth and spanning the shelf-slope transition from the western edge of the Agulhas Bank to offshore of the Kei River mouth. A total of 855 seabed images were processed, and 173 benthic taxa quantified. Corresponding environmental variables were used to determine potential drivers of observed biodiversity patterns. Data were analysed using multivariate analyses, including CLUSTER, MDS and DistLM, in PRIMER v6 with PERMANOVA. Ten different epifaunal communities were classified and described with key characteristic taxa identified. Communities found in habitats that comprised mostly hard rocky substrata generally exhibited higher in species richness and were most commonly characterized by stalked crinoids, various corals and bryozoans, whereas communities found in habitats comprising unconsolidated sediment were lower in species richness and commonly characterized by polychaetes, cerianthids and brittle stars. Communities found in habitats comprising both hard and soft substrata had a mix of the above-mentioned epifauna. The distribution of these communities was mostly influenced by substratum type, longitude, trawling intensity, depth, and presence of visible particulate organic matter. The combined interactions of topography, substratum and the unique hydrodynamic conditions along the Agulhas ecoregion shelf-slope transition are likely responsible for the observed patterns. The observed community patterns were also compared to the existing classification of marine ecosystem types from the 2018 National Biodiversity Assessment. Fine-scale heterogeneity was revealed within the examined marine ecosystem types, particularly with substratum type and associated community variability and should be recognized and incorporated into future iterations of the national marine ecosystem classification and map. Species-area curves were used to calculate conservation targets for three ecosystem types, defined by the 2018 National Biodiversity Assessment, namely the Agulhas Coarse Sediment Shelf Edge, South West Indian Upper Slope, and the Agulhas Rocky Shelf Edge. Considering the epifaunal species richness (using the bootstrap estimator) and area, per image and per ecosystem type, the rate of accumulation of species was calculated and used to estimate the percentage of species expected to be represented by any given percentage of protected ecosystem type area. Between 20 and 30% of the area within these ecosystem types will need to be protected to represent 80% of the species. This study has shown that an integration of environmental parameters together with biodiversity measures to better understand and classify offshore benthic ecosystems has worked well. However, to improve the resolution of the national marine ecosystem classification and map, there needs to be greater input of fine-scale biological and environmental sampling and mapping of substratum types across the Agulhas ecoregion shelf-slope transition zone. This work is contributing to improvements in the national marine ecosystem classification and map and hence the spatial assessment and planning processes that rely on these products.

Os grandes carnívoros necessitam de vastos territórios para sobreviver em longo prazo, sendo que sua coexistência com humanos é fundamental, porém gera conflitos. O objetivo geral dessa tese é integrar a conservação de grandes carnívoros ao processo de planejamento de uso e ocupação da terra do estado de São Paulo. Para isso os objetivos específicos são: (1) sistematizar, espacializar e analisar a ocorrência de grandes carnívoros, estabelecendo correlações com os padrões de uso e ocupação da terra, variáveis climáticas e topográficas; (2) estabelecer áreas prioritárias para conservação de grandes carnívoros no estado de São Paulo; e (3) caracterizar os padrões de uso e conservação da terra nos municípios indicando necessidades e oportunidades para conservação (ênfase em Brotas-SP). O delineamento desse estudo foi feito buscando a aplicação de Modelos de Distribuição de Espécies - MDEs (espécies estudadas: Chrysocyon brachyurus, Leopardus Pardalis e Puma concolor) em uma abordagem de Planejamento Sistemático da Conservação - PSC. Para isso, foi aplicado o algoritmo MAXENT para as análises de distribuição das espécies e o algoritmo ZONATION para análises de priorização espacial e identificação de áreas prioritárias para conservação. Os modelos gerados mostraram alto desempenho (AUCs ≥ 0.8) e foram significantes (p ≤ 0.05) para o limite de corte mais inclusivo considerado \"minimum training presence\". Apesar da plasticidade das espécies estudadas, a variável porcentagem de vegetação nativa foi uma das três mais importantes para os modelos gerados. A distribuição das espécies abrange tanto paisagens naturais quanto paisagens antropizadas, porém as áreas com alta adequabilidade ambiental (acima de 0.5) se concentram em regiões com vegetação nativa remanescente e em sua maior parte não estão protegidas em Unidades de Conservação de Proteção Integral. Os resultados das análises de priorização espacial mostraram prioridades altas para os carnívoros concentradas na região central do estado de São Paulo, onde existem conflitos entre a demanda por áreas para conservação e a demanda por áreas para desenvolvimento humano. Recomenda-se a ampliação das UCPIs nessa região e ações de manejo e conservação em propriedades privadas (ex. Reservas Legais e Áreas de Preservação Permanente). Tanto as prioridades para conservação como as prioridades para desenvolvimento são muito diferentes entre os municípios do estado de São Paulo. Sendo assim, as estratégias precisam ser elaboradas caso a caso em escala municipal. Brotas possui localização estratégica na conservação de grandes carnívoros com alta porcentagem de áreas núcleo e alto potencial ecoturístico, sendo recomendada a expansão de UCPIs e a restauração da vegetação nativa para ampliar a proteção de grandes carnívoros. Os resultados desse estudo devem informar o processo de tomada de decisão (Ex. Planos de Ação para Conservação de Espécies Ameaçadas; Zoneamentos; Avaliações de Impactos Ambientais) e a abordagem metodológica serve como um modelo para orientar processos semelhantes que visam à conservação de espécies em outras regiões. / Large carnivores need large territories to survive in long term, requiring the use of existing protected areas and private properties with many land uses types and human occupation levels for dispersion and as additional habitat. Thus, the coexistence between large carnivores and humans is essential. However, it leads to conflicts of interest. The overall objective of this thesis is to integrate the conservation of large mammals to land use planning process in São Paulo State, Brazil. For this, the specific objectives are: (1) to systematize, to spatialize and to analyze the occurrence of large mammals, establishing correlations between large mammals distribution and land use patterns, climatic and topographic variables; (2) to establish priority areas for conservation of large mammals in São Paulo State; and (3) to characterize the land use and conservation patterns in São Paulo\'s municipalities (emphasis in Brotas-SP). The design of this study aimed to apply Species Distribution Models tools (species studied: Chrysocyon brachyurus, Leopardus Pardalis and Puma concolor) in an approach of Systematic Conservation Planning. For this, MAXENT algorithm was applied for species distribution modelling and Zonation algorithm was applied for spatial prioritization analysis and conservation priority areas identification. All models were significant (p ≤ 0.05) considering the minimum training presence threshold showing high performance (AUC ≥ 0.8). Despite the plasticity of the species, the variable percentage of native vegetation was one of the top three most important for all models. The distribution of the species covers both natural and disturbed landscapes, but high environmental suitability areas (up to 0.5) concentrate in regions with native vegetation fragments. However the most part of these areas are not protected by law. Spatial prioritization results showed high priorities for carnivores concentrate in the central region of São Paulo, where there are conflicts there are both high demand for carnivore conservation and high demand for human development. Conservation strategies need to be developed case by case because both priorities for conservation and priorities for development were showed very different between the municipalities. For example, Brotas is strategic for carnivore\'s conservation, having high percentage of core areas in its territory and high ecotourism potential. However the percent of native vegetation cover is low. Therefore, it is recommended protected areas expansion and native vegetation restoration to increase the protection of large carnivores in Brotas. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for large mammals, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also native habitat conservation and management on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental policies and land use planning in São Paulo State, Brazil (e.g. Action Plan for Conservation of Endangered Species; Zoning; Reviews of Environmental Impacts), and it serves as a useful model to guide similar process for other large-carnivore species world-wide.

abstract: In the face of increasing anthropogenic threats to marine systems, marine reserves have become a popular tool to promote sustainable fisheries management and protect marine biodiversity. However, the governance structures that determine marine reserve success are not well understood. The response of resource users to reserve establishment, as well as the socioeconomic, institutional, and political contexts in which they occur, are rarely considered during reserve implementation. I use the Coupled Infrastructure Systems (CIS) framework to better understand the interdependencies between social, economic, natural, and institutional processes affecting reserve implementation and performance efficacy in the Gulf of California, Mexico. I used a combination of interviews, qualitative case study comparisons, and systematic conservation planning tools to evaluate the role of different infrastructures, institutions, and governance for marine reserve efficacy in the Gulf of California, Mexico. At a local scale, I assessed stakeholder perceptions, preferences, and knowledge on reserves in the Midriff Islands sub-region of the Gulf. My results show differences in fisher perceptions about the use of reserves for biodiversity conservation and fisheries management, misconceptions about their location, and non-compliance behavior problems. At the regional scale, I explored the trajectories of reserve implementation and performance. I show that capacity-building programs and effective collaboration between non-profit organizations, environmental, fisheries, and other government authorities are essential to coordinate efforts leading to the provisioning of infrastructure that enables effective marine reserves. Furthermore, these programs help facilitate the incorporation of fishers into diversified management and economic activities. Infrastructure provision tradeoffs should be carefully balanced for designing scientifically-sound reserves that can achieve fisheries recovery objectives and incorporating stakeholder engagement processes during the planning phase that allow fishers to include their preferences in a way that complements proposed reserve network solutions. Overall, my results highlight the importance of multiple infrastructures in understanding the dynamics of interacting action situations at various stages of marine reserve implementation and operation. I identify strengths and weaknesses within marine reserve systems that help understand what combinations of infrastructures can be influenced to increase marine reserve effectiveness and robustness to internal and external challenges, as well as delivering benefits for both nature and people. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Environmental and Resource Management 2017

Os grandes carnívoros necessitam de vastos territórios para sobreviver em longo prazo, sendo que sua coexistência com humanos é fundamental, porém gera conflitos. O objetivo geral dessa tese é integrar a conservação de grandes carnívoros ao processo de planejamento de uso e ocupação da terra do estado de São Paulo. Para isso os objetivos específicos são: (1) sistematizar, espacializar e analisar a ocorrência de grandes carnívoros, estabelecendo correlações com os padrões de uso e ocupação da terra, variáveis climáticas e topográficas; (2) estabelecer áreas prioritárias para conservação de grandes carnívoros no estado de São Paulo; e (3) caracterizar os padrões de uso e conservação da terra nos municípios indicando necessidades e oportunidades para conservação (ênfase em Brotas-SP). O delineamento desse estudo foi feito buscando a aplicação de Modelos de Distribuição de Espécies - MDEs (espécies estudadas: Chrysocyon brachyurus, Leopardus Pardalis e Puma concolor) em uma abordagem de Planejamento Sistemático da Conservação - PSC. Para isso, foi aplicado o algoritmo MAXENT para as análises de distribuição das espécies e o algoritmo ZONATION para análises de priorização espacial e identificação de áreas prioritárias para conservação. Os modelos gerados mostraram alto desempenho (AUCs ≥ 0.8) e foram significantes (p ≤ 0.05) para o limite de corte mais inclusivo considerado \"minimum training presence\". Apesar da plasticidade das espécies estudadas, a variável porcentagem de vegetação nativa foi uma das três mais importantes para os modelos gerados. A distribuição das espécies abrange tanto paisagens naturais quanto paisagens antropizadas, porém as áreas com alta adequabilidade ambiental (acima de 0.5) se concentram em regiões com vegetação nativa remanescente e em sua maior parte não estão protegidas em Unidades de Conservação de Proteção Integral. Os resultados das análises de priorização espacial mostraram prioridades altas para os carnívoros concentradas na região central do estado de São Paulo, onde existem conflitos entre a demanda por áreas para conservação e a demanda por áreas para desenvolvimento humano. Recomenda-se a ampliação das UCPIs nessa região e ações de manejo e conservação em propriedades privadas (ex. Reservas Legais e Áreas de Preservação Permanente). Tanto as prioridades para conservação como as prioridades para desenvolvimento são muito diferentes entre os municípios do estado de São Paulo. Sendo assim, as estratégias precisam ser elaboradas caso a caso em escala municipal. Brotas possui localização estratégica na conservação de grandes carnívoros com alta porcentagem de áreas núcleo e alto potencial ecoturístico, sendo recomendada a expansão de UCPIs e a restauração da vegetação nativa para ampliar a proteção de grandes carnívoros. Os resultados desse estudo devem informar o processo de tomada de decisão (Ex. Planos de Ação para Conservação de Espécies Ameaçadas; Zoneamentos; Avaliações de Impactos Ambientais) e a abordagem metodológica serve como um modelo para orientar processos semelhantes que visam à conservação de espécies em outras regiões. / Large carnivores need large territories to survive in long term, requiring the use of existing protected areas and private properties with many land uses types and human occupation levels for dispersion and as additional habitat. Thus, the coexistence between large carnivores and humans is essential. However, it leads to conflicts of interest. The overall objective of this thesis is to integrate the conservation of large mammals to land use planning process in São Paulo State, Brazil. For this, the specific objectives are: (1) to systematize, to spatialize and to analyze the occurrence of large mammals, establishing correlations between large mammals distribution and land use patterns, climatic and topographic variables; (2) to establish priority areas for conservation of large mammals in São Paulo State; and (3) to characterize the land use and conservation patterns in São Paulo\'s municipalities (emphasis in Brotas-SP). The design of this study aimed to apply Species Distribution Models tools (species studied: Chrysocyon brachyurus, Leopardus Pardalis and Puma concolor) in an approach of Systematic Conservation Planning. For this, MAXENT algorithm was applied for species distribution modelling and Zonation algorithm was applied for spatial prioritization analysis and conservation priority areas identification. All models were significant (p ≤ 0.05) considering the minimum training presence threshold showing high performance (AUC ≥ 0.8). Despite the plasticity of the species, the variable percentage of native vegetation was one of the top three most important for all models. The distribution of the species covers both natural and disturbed landscapes, but high environmental suitability areas (up to 0.5) concentrate in regions with native vegetation fragments. However the most part of these areas are not protected by law. Spatial prioritization results showed high priorities for carnivores concentrate in the central region of São Paulo, where there are conflicts there are both high demand for carnivore conservation and high demand for human development. Conservation strategies need to be developed case by case because both priorities for conservation and priorities for development were showed very different between the municipalities. For example, Brotas is strategic for carnivore\'s conservation, having high percentage of core areas in its territory and high ecotourism potential. However the percent of native vegetation cover is low. Therefore, it is recommended protected areas expansion and native vegetation restoration to increase the protection of large carnivores in Brotas. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for large mammals, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also native habitat conservation and management on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental policies and land use planning in São Paulo State, Brazil (e.g. Action Plan for Conservation of Endangered Species; Zoning; Reviews of Environmental Impacts), and it serves as a useful model to guide similar process for other large-carnivore species world-wide.

Protected area site selection is generally carried out using biodiversity data as surrogates. However, reliable and complete biodiversity data is rarely available due to limited resources, time and equipment. Instead of drawing on inadequate biodiversity data, an alternative is to use environmental diversity (ED) as a surrogate in conservation planning. However, there are few studies that use environmental diversity for site selection or that evaluates its efficiency / unfortunately, no such example exists for Turkey, where biodiversity is high but our knowledge about it is unsatisfactory. Hence, this study was carried out to investigate the efficiency of environmental surrogates and the utility of different biological taxa in conservation planning. The objective was to find out the most efficient surrogates, either environmental or biological, for conservation planning, so that limited resources can be used more efficiently to establish an effective protected areas network. The study was carried out in northeastern Turkey, within the Lesser Caucasus ecoregion. The taxonomic groups considered include large mammals, breeding birds, globally threatened reptiles and amphibians, butterflies, highly threatened plants, and ecological communities. The distribution data was taken from a previous study, while climate and topographical data were obtained from various sources and produced through spatio-statistical techniques. Complementarity-based site selection was carried out with Marxan software, where the planning unit was the 100 sq.km. UTM grid square. Various statistical methods, including geographically weighted regression, principal components analysis, and p-median algorithm, were used to determine ED across the units. Performance of different approaches and different sets of surrogates were tested by comparing them to a random null model as well as representation success. Results indicate that endemic or non-endemic highly threatened plant species, butterfly species and ecological communities represent biodiversity better than other taxa in the study area. As such, they can be used on their own as efficient biodiversity surrogates in conservation area planning. Another finding is that highly threatened plant species are required to be used in the site selection process if they need to be represented well / in other words, they are their own surrogates. It was demonstrated that while ED alone can be used as a surrogate to represent biodiversity of an area, they are not as good as biodiversity surrogates themselves. It is also suggested that using species taxa with smaller distributional ranges or taxa that complement each other due to ecological differences as surrogates provide better results. On the other hand, ED might be a more suitable surrogate if resources are very limited or field work is impossible. In such cases, using ED in conjunction with one of the better biodiversity surrogates is probably the best solution.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-14T12:17:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 5064930 bytes, checksum: 247e078f9d93df87f7340f0cb0801116 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-12 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The conservation of the biodiversity is intimately dependent on the human appreciation of the facts relating to the changes in usage of the area. The scale of the details of this study defines the size of the geossistemas which are areas determined by a relative uniformity of physical characteristics. A 62.143 hectares geossistema were defined around the Paraiba river estuary and this area was studied with a view of conservation of the biodiversity. The Paraiba river estuary geossistemas is located within the Atlantic Forest area which is one of the world s most biodiverse systems and, as it happens, one of the most degraded. The area studied was given, by the Portaria No 9/2007 of the Ministry of the Environment, a high priority for the conservation of the biodiversity in nine categories, and is one of the most populated areas of the Paraiba state, and one which retains important vestiges of the Atlantic Forest and its associated ecosystems. For the analysis of the changes which led to the loss of the biodiversity of the geossistema, were employed Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, remote sensing and landscape ecology. The use of the land was mapped for two historic dates, 1970 and 2010, and through the interpretation of metrics of landscape ecology it was possible to learn the high degree of vulnerability of the natural environment in the studied area. It was discovered that more than two thirds of the natural vegetation was substituted for human land uses. On the left bank of the river Paraiba estuary the increase of the coconut and sugar cane monocultures and on the right bank the increase of the urban areas of João Pessoa, Cabedelo, Bayeux and Santa Rita have transformed the countryside over the last 36 years. The geossistema landscape was characterized by different types of vegetation mosaic with mean patch size of 70 hectares. Actually the fragments of vegetation have become only small patches distributed mainly in protected areas around the ditches, with mean patch area of 50 hectares. The conservation of the remaining vegetation will be compromised if the connections between the fragments are not re-established. Thus it is important to identify not only priority areas for conservation but also areas suitable for the reestablishment of communication between the fragments. In this treatise the method of Systematic Conservation Planning was used to create scenarios to select the areas which are most in need of forest recovery action. / A conservação da biodiversidade está intimamente ligada ao estudo das transformações do espaço a uma escala adequada à compreensão humana dos fatos. Esta escala caracteriza a dimensão dos geossistemas, que são áreas delimitadas segundo uma relativa uniformidade de aspectos físicos. Foi identificado um geossistema com uma área de 62.143 hectares no entorno do estuário do rio Paraíba PB e o mesmo foi estudado a partir da perspectiva da conservação dos ambientes naturais. O geossistema do estuário do rio Paraíba está localizado no domínio da Mata Atlântica, um dos biomas mais biodiversos do mundo, e, no entanto, também um dos mais degradados. A área de estudo foi considerada prioritária para a conservação da biodiversidade pela Portaria Nº 9/2007 do Ministério do Meio Ambiente (MMA) em nove categorias, e é uma das regiões mais populosas do Estado da Paraíba, e que resguarda importantes remanescentes de vegetação de Mata Atlântica Setentrional e ecossistemas associados. Para a análise das transformações que levaram a perda da biodiversidade no geossistema, foram empregadas técnicas de geoprocessamento, sensoriamento remoto e ecologia da paisagem. além disto, foi testada a metodologia do Planejamento Sistemático da Conservação aplicado na elaboração de cenários que indiquem as áreas mais prioritárias para o estabelecimento de ações de recuperação ambiental. O uso do solo foi mapeado em dois momentos históricos, 1970 e 2010 e através da interpretação das métricas de ecologia da paisagem foi possível compreender o alto grau de vulnerabilidade dos ambientes naturais da área estudada. Foi detectado que mais de dois terços da vegetação natural foi substituída por ocupações humanas apenas no período estudado. Na margem esquerda do estuário do rio Paraíba a ampliação de monoculturas de coco e cana-de-açúcar, e na margem direita, o crescimento das áreas urbanas dos municípios de João Pessoa, Cabedelo, Bayeux e Santa Rita transformaram a paisagem do geossistema. A paisagem do geossistema era caracterizada por um mosaico de tipos diferentes de vegetação com média de tamanho dos fragmentos de 70 ha. Atualmente, os fragmentos de vegetação resumem-se a pequenas manchas distribuídas principalmente em unidades de conservação e ao redor dos corpos d água e a média do tamanho dos fragmentos aproxima-se a 50 ha. A conservação dos remanescentes vegetacionais estará comprometida caso não seja restabelecida a conectividade entre os fragmentos. Desta forma é importante que se identifiquem áreas que sejam prioritárias não apenas para a conservação, mas também áreas adequadas ao estabelecimento de medidas que melhorem a comunicação entre os fragmentos, como a recuperação florestal.