The Swedish potential of electricity production from roof mounted solar panels has been determined in three steps: accessing the existing roof top areas, simulating the amount of electricity solar panels can produce on these areas and finally analyzing how large the necessary economical change is to make the solar cells profitable. The total existing amount of roof top areas are 319 square kilometers and the area distribution follows the distribution of people. This leads to an installed power of 47,9 GW which are expected to produce 49,0 TWh electricity per year. If the quality of the electricity is prioritized the highest the power is reduced to 3,7 GW, generating 3,8 TWh yearly, but if the hosting capacity is calculated from Sweden’s total electricity need, the capacity is 42 TWh per year. Today, solar panels are not profitable in Sweden for houses, even though there is a subsidy of 35 % of the investment costs, discounted in 25 years. The profitability is calculated with a cost of capital of 5 %, a price on electricity of 1 SEK/kWh and an investment cost of 20 SEK/Wp. With a kept subsidy of 35 %, the price of electricity needs to rise 30 % to make the systems profitable for houses, and the corresponding increase without the subsidy is 95 %. Historically the subsidy has decreased as the costs of solar cells have decreased as well. For apartment buildings solar panels are profitable with the governmental subsidy if the solar systems are at least 3 kWp per house hold. The corresponding price increase without the subsidy is 60 %.

Sverige har som mål att år 2040 ha helt förnybar elproduktion och därmed utredsalternativ som till exempel vind- och solenergi till elförsörjning där främstsolenergin har potential för mindre och medelstora system för privatpersoner ochföretag. Som en del i denna utveckling har bostadsrättsföreningen Stenbär i Gävlebörjat intresserat sig för att installera solcellssystem, vilket blev grunden för dettaprojekt. Målet med den här utredningen var att utreda områdets potential för ensolcellsanläggning samt hur många kilowattimmar denna skulle kunna genereraper år.Inledningsvis var intentionen att utföra simuleringarna i IDA ICE 4.8, men underförberedelserna inför arbetet uppmärksammades ett webinar på Youtube där IDAICE 5.0 beta presenterades. Equa Simulations AB, vilka har utvecklatprogrammet, förklarade där uppdateringar och styrkor med den nya versionen. Iden nya versionen finns nu möjlighet att upprätta och simulera mer komplexasolcellsystem samt få ut mer korrekta och mer detaljerade resultat. På så vis bleväven en mindre analys av IDA ICE 5.0 beta en del av det här examensarbetet.Mätningar av husens höjd och längd samt avstånd till omkringliggande skogutfördes på plats och takens lutning beräknades till 14,5°. Ritningar över områdettilldelades av uppdragsgivaren och klimatdata återfanns i mjukvaran. En kartbildfrån Google maps behandlades i Photoshop till grund för modellering i IDA ICE.Byggnaderna delades sedan upp i två kategorier, sydlig och öst/västlig riktning.Inga moduler placerade i nordlig riktning simulerades då det inte förväntades varalönsamt. Solcellerna placerades i två lutningar, 14,5° som är takens lutning och45° vilken är den lutning som används av Energimyndigheten vid deras tester avsolcellssystem. Jämförelsen av taklutningarna visade dock endast en skillnad på2,5 %. Då all information om byggnaderna ej varit tillgänglig har områdetsenergibehov, utifrån schablonvärden, beräknats till 64 kWh/m2 och totalt522 MWh/år. Detta för att kunna ställa den i proportion mot solcellsystemetspotentiella elproduktion, vilken i simuleringsresultaten uppgick till 554 MWh/år.Systemkostnaden för det fullstora modellerade systemet landade på 10 600 kronorper installerad kilowattpeak respektive 2 025 kronor per installerad kvadratmetersolpanel. Om återbetalningstiden sätts till 10 år ger det en systemkostnad på 1.17kronor per producerad kilowattimme. Undersökningen visar att potential finns attproducera en stor mängd solel i området. Då systemet producerar ett överskottunder sommarhalvåret finns även möjlighet att sälja el. / Sweden’s energy policy objectives aim to have strictly renewable energyproduction by the year 2040. Alternatives such as wind- and solar power aretherefore implemented as alternatives to fossil fuel where solar power has thebiggest potential for small and medium sized systems for private houses andsmaller companies. As a part of this development homeowner’s association BRFStenbär i Gävle have considered installing PV-systems in their residential areaand that became the foundation for this master thesis. The goal with this projectwas to investigate the residential areas potential for solar powered electricityproduction and how much energy it may produce per year.The simulations were initially meant to be made in IDA ICE 4.8, but during thepreparations a webinar on Youtube was found where the beta version of IDA ICE5.0 was presented. In the presentation Equa Simulations AB, who are thedevelopers of the programme, explained the updates and new features with thenew version. The new version includes possibilities to model and build morecomplex PV-systems and receive more correct and detailed results. Hence, asmaller analysis of IDA ICE 5.0 beta became a part of this master thesis.Measurements of the building’s height and length and the distance to thesurrounding trees were made on site. Drawings of the residential area wereprovided by the client and the climate data were already installed in the software.A map of the area was downloaded from Google maps, modified in a pictureediting programme and used as a base for the modelling in IDA ICE. Thebuildings were divided into two categories, south and east/west orientation. NoPV-systems were placed and simulated in northern orientation since it was notexpected to be profitable.The solar panels were placed in two different angles, 14.5° which is the angle ofthe roofs, and 45° which is the angle used by the Swedish energy agency for theirtesting of PV-systems. The comparisons only showed a deviation of 2.5 %. Allinformation about the building’s energy needs were not available, so fromstandard values their needs were calculated to be 64 kWh/m2 and in total522 MWh/year. This was made to enable comparisons of their needs with thepotential energy production, which amounted to 554 MWh/year. The system costof the total PV-system amounted to 10 600 SEK/installed kWp and 2 025 SEK/m2installed PV-panel. If the repayment period is set to 10 year the system costbecomes 1.17 SEK/kWh. As the system produces more electricity during summerthan needed there is also a possibility to sell the excess to the grid.