Military acquisition programs have long been criticized for the exponential growth in program costs required to generate modest improvements in capability. One of the most promising reform efforts to address this trend is the open system architecture initiative, which uses modular design principles and commercial interface standards as a means to reduce the cost and complexity of upgrading systems over time. While conceptually simple, this effort has proven to be exceptionally difficult to implement in practice. This difficulty stems, in large part, from the fact that open systems trade additional cost and risk in the early phases of development for the option to infuse technology at a later date, but the benefits provided by this option are inherently uncertain. Practical implementation therefore requires a decision support framework to determine when these uncertain, future benefits are worth the cost and risk assumed in the present. The objective of this research is to address this gap by developing a method to measure the expected costs, benefits and risks associated with open systems. This work is predicated on three assumptions: (1) the purpose of future technology infusions is to keep pace with the uncertain evolution of operational requirements, (2) successful designs must justify how future upgrades will be used to satisfy these requirements, and (3) program managers retain the flexibility to adapt prior decisions as new information is made available over time. The analytical method developed in this work is then applied to an example scenario for an aerial Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance platform with the potential to upgrade its sensor suite in future increments. Final results demonstrate that the relative advantages and drawbacks between open and integrated system architectures can be presented in the context of a cost-effectiveness framework that is currently used by acquisition professionals to manage complex design decisions.

Development of new Advanced Manufacturing Technology (AMT) for the aerospace industry is critical to enhance the manufacture and assembly of aerospace products. These novel AMTs require high development cost, specialist resource capabilities, have long development periods, high technological risks and lengthy payback durations. This forms an industry reluctance to fund the initial AMT development stages, impacting on their success within an ever increasingly competitive environment. Selection of suitable AMTs for development is typically performed by managers who make little reference to estimating the non-recurring development effort in resources and hardware cost. In addition, the performance at the conceptual stage is predicted using expert opinion, consisting of subjective and inaccurate outputs. AMTs selected are then submerged into development research and heavily invested in, with incorrect selections having a detrimental impact on the business. A detailed study of the UK aerospace manufacturing industry corroborated these findings and revealed a requirement for a new process map to resolve the problem of managing AMT developments at the conceptual stages. This process map defined the final research protocol, forming the requirement for a Cost-Benefit Forecasting Framework. The framework improves the decision making process to select the most suitable AMTs for development, from concept to full scale demonstration. Cost is the first element and is capable of estimating the AMT development effort in person-hours and cost of hardware using two parametric cost models. Benefit is the second element and forecasts the AMT tangible and intangible performance. The framework plots these quantified cost-benefit parameters and is capable of presenting development value advice for a diverse range of AMTs with varied applications. A detailed case study is presented evaluating a total of 23 novel aerospace AMTs verifying the capability and high accuracy of the framework within a large aerospace manufacturing organisation. Further validation is provided by quantifying the responses from 10 AMT development experts, after utilising the methodology within an industrial setting. The results show that quantifying the cost-benefit parameters provides manufacturing research and technology with the ability to select AMTs that provide the best value to a business.

A Formulation of Multidimensional Growth Models for the Assessment and Forecast of Technology Attributes Travis W. Danner 229 Pages Directed by Dr. Dimitri Mavris This research proposes the formulation of multidimensional growth models as an approach to simulating the advancement of multi-objective technologies towards their upper limits. These multidimensional growth models are formulated by noticing and exploiting the correlation between technology growth models and technology frontiers. Both are frontiers in actuality. The technology growth curve is a frontier between capability levels of a single attribute and time, while a technology frontier is a frontier between the capability levels of two or more attributes. Multidimensional growth models are formulated by exploiting the mathematical significance of this correlation. The result is a model that can capture both the interaction between multiple system attributes and their expected rates of improvement over time. The fundamental nature of technology development is maintained and interdependent growth curves are generated for each system metric with minimal data requirements. Being founded on the basic nature of technology advancement, relative to physical limits, the availability for further improvement can be determined for a single metric relative to other system measures of merit. A byproduct of this modeling approach is a single n-dimensional technology frontier linking all n system attributes with time. This provides an environment capable of forecasting future system capability in the form of advancing technology frontiers. In addition to formulating the multidimensional growth model, this research provides a systematic procedure for applying it to specific technology architectures. Researchers and decision-makers are able to investigate the potential for additional improvement within that technology architecture and estimate the expected cost of each incremental improvement relative to the cost of past improvements. In this manner, multidimensional growth models provide the necessary information to set reasonable program goals for the further development of a particular technological approach or to establish the need for new technological approaches in light of the constraining limits of conventional approaches.

Development of new Advanced Manufacturing Technology (AMT) for the aerospace industry is critical to enhance the manufacture and assembly of aerospace products. These novel AMTs require high development cost, specialist resource capabilities, have long development periods, high technological risks and lengthy payback durations. This forms an industry reluctance to fund the initial AMT development stages, impacting on their success within an ever increasingly competitive environment. Selection of suitable AMTs for development is typically performed by managers who make little reference to estimating the non-recurring development effort in resources and hardware cost. In addition, the performance at the conceptual stage is predicted using expert opinion, consisting of subjective and inaccurate outputs. AMTs selected are then submerged into development research and heavily invested in, with incorrect selections having a detrimental impact on the business. A detailed study of the UK aerospace manufacturing industry corroborated these findings and revealed a requirement for a new process map to resolve the problem of managing AMT developments at the conceptual stages. This process map defined the final research protocol, forming the requirement for a Cost-Benefit Forecasting Framework. The framework improves the decision making process to select the most suitable AMTs for development, from concept to full scale demonstration. Cost is the first element and is capable of estimating the AMT development effort in person-hours and cost of hardware using two parametric cost models. Benefit is the second element and forecasts the AMT tangible and intangible performance. The framework plots these quantified cost-benefit parameters and is capable of presenting development value advice for a diverse range of AMTs with varied applications. A detailed case study is presented evaluating a total of 23 novel aerospace AMTs verifying the capability and high accuracy of the framework within a large aerospace manufacturing organisation. Further validation is provided by quantifying the responses from 10 AMT development experts, after utilising the methodology within an industrial setting. The results show that quantifying the cost-benefit parameters provides manufacturing research and technology with the ability to select AMTs that provide the best value to a business.

The implementation of energy policies oriented to incentive the adoption of efficient lighting technologies in the residential sector requires analytic tools able to describe the market conditions necessary for a successful penetration of the innovations. This article describes, using an agent-based model, the relationship between the micro behaviors of householder\'s adoption of lighting technologies and the aggregated macro patterns of diffusion in the Brazilian residential sector. The model also studies the dynamic between the interaction network parameters and the emerging diffusion characteristics in different economic scenarios for energy and technologic prices / A implementação de políticas públicas orientadas a incentivar a adopção de tecnologias de iluminação mais eficientes no setor residencial precisa de ferramentas analíticas capazes de descrever assertivamente as condições de mercado necessárias para uma penetração exitosa destas inovações. Este documento descreve, utilizando modelagem baseado em agentes, a relação entre os micro comportamentos dos usuários ao adotar as tecnologias de iluminação e as macro tendências agregadas de difusão no setor residencial brasileiro. O modelo também estuda a dinâmica existente entre a relação dos parâmetros das redes de interação e as caraterísticas emergentes no processo de difusão em diferentes cenários econômicos para os custos energéticos e tecnológicos.

The implementation of energy policies oriented to incentive the adoption of efficient lighting technologies in the residential sector requires analytic tools able to describe the market conditions necessary for a successful penetration of the innovations. This article describes, using an agent-based model, the relationship between the micro behaviors of householder\'s adoption of lighting technologies and the aggregated macro patterns of diffusion in the Brazilian residential sector. The model also studies the dynamic between the interaction network parameters and the emerging diffusion characteristics in different economic scenarios for energy and technologic prices / A implementação de políticas públicas orientadas a incentivar a adopção de tecnologias de iluminação mais eficientes no setor residencial precisa de ferramentas analíticas capazes de descrever assertivamente as condições de mercado necessárias para uma penetração exitosa destas inovações. Este documento descreve, utilizando modelagem baseado em agentes, a relação entre os micro comportamentos dos usuários ao adotar as tecnologias de iluminação e as macro tendências agregadas de difusão no setor residencial brasileiro. O modelo também estuda a dinâmica existente entre a relação dos parâmetros das redes de interação e as caraterísticas emergentes no processo de difusão em diferentes cenários econômicos para os custos energéticos e tecnológicos.