Since Bretton Woods System break down in year 1973. Many economists found that there are more similar business cycle between industrial countries. Recently, Doyle and Faust(2002) proposed the correlation of business cycle between two countries becomes weaker. Therefore in this search, we try to carry out two different aspect factor that effects the countries¡¦ business cycle correlation. The factor is so-called ¡§transmission mechanism.¡¨ Generally specking, Many empirical analysis have pointed out the temporary factors to the business cycle mainly come from the transferred factors of economic aspect. What is ¡§Transmission Mechanisms?¡¨ Economists often try to substitute it in good markets, financial markets, and the coordination of monetary policies. However, in this duration of the empirical analysis, using only these proxy variables to explain BCCs between two countries seems too limited. According to this situation, we believe if the BCCs can be explained by using proxy factors of non-economic variable, the result can be utilized by making up the defect. We attempt to find new factors in political approach and combine with the ¡§Transmission Mechanisms¡¨ that we have introduced earlier. To analyze further economic implication in our research, five conclusions have been summarized below: Firstly, increasing bilateral trade has significantly provided positive effect to BCCs among G7 countries from 1980 to 2002. Because bilateral trade intensity index is endogenous , we use exogenous variable as instrumental variable to estimate ¡§Trade¡¨. Secondly, we use Panel method to expand its matrix. Finally, we improve the empirical estimators of insignificant statistics before. So, when we talk about the relations between BCCs and good and service markets, we must consider these exogenous factors. Eventually, we will receive more detailed results. Secondly, although to trade in financial markets can increase the BCCs between two countries, the statistic report is insignificant . About this empirical result, we can obtain reasonable explanations from the researches (for instance: Imbs, 2004 or Kose et al, 2003), they point out that financial markets are bound excessively by globalization. Therefore, this will aggravatingly make each country to focus on its specialization. Finally, this situation will make the BCCs getting collapsed among these countries. This also explains that the specialization among these countries will reduce the positive effect from the BBCs to financial markets. Thirdly, in the research, the statistics effect of the trade intensity index and specialization are significant negative. It means that when good in transaction will result in more specialization. Two countries have similar industrial structure.Imbs(2004) consider the problem is the index we use to measure bilateral trade intensity. This index was effected from two countries¡¦ size . If use Clark and van Wincoop¡¦s trade intensity index to measure the effect, we can find that significant specialization by comparative advantage effect. Fourth, there are high level financial integration between two countries, because international risk sharing result in two countries have different industrial structure. Lastly, in the research, the statistics effect of the party variables and business cycle of correlations are very significant. This also indicates the political factor will play an important role for many sources of the fluctuation tread of BCCs. In other words, when we discuss the issue of BCCs if miss the contribution of political factors to the BCCs. Then, this might cause the omitted variable biased, and finally cause the whole computation become inefficient. In addition, we can have further discussion by an input of a factor: to conserve the joint benefit of all the member countries in an economic organization, these countries need to be ruled by the same ideal political party. Otherwise, the institute will never reach its essential result. Combining all the conclusions we have shown above, we can find out the BCCs among G7 countries from 1980-2002. Besides the influence of the ¡§Transmission Mechanisms,¡¨ the result will be varied by the political factors. In conclusion, we need to consider the contribution of the political party variables to the BCCs when talking about this issue, therefore; the original theoretical model can be more persuasive. According to a statistics of IMF, the BCCs among those industrial countries are falling little by little in recent years. Therefore, consolidating trade cooperation is essential for what we believe to improve the BCCs among G7. At the same time, pass through a strong integrate monetary policy can move forward all the incumbent parties from all the countries to agree among themselves, and even reach more substantial effect. From the example like this, we might find evidence from BCCs issues by discussing the integration process in European Monetary Union.

The rates of childhood obesity remain high in spite of the enormous efforts dedicated to tackling the disease. This dissertation investigates the effect of two of its causes, including parental time and children's obesity risk behaviors. Trends in these causes have changed over time and might explain changes in obesity. The two factors are analyzed separately given the differences in impact process and concentration of literature. The data for the investigation is drawn from the Parental Time, Role Strains, Coping, and Children's Diet and Nutrition project. In examining parental time, the attention is directed towards the mother's actual time spent with the child which has been associated with reduction in child weight status. The major aim is to test and correct for the problem of endogeneity stemming from unobserved health factors that can distort any meaningful causal impact of maternal time on child weight status. Using the household production theory, parental time allocation decisions towards child health are modeled and analyzed using instrument variable (IV) methods. Results indicate that the effect of mother's time allocation reduces child weight status. Her decision to allocate time to the child is affected by unseen factors. Father's work to family spillover was found to be a valid instrument for mother's time with the child. Results were robust across different estimators. In analyzing the relationship between childhood obesity risk behaviors and weight status, this study focuses on three child practices including breakfast intake, fast food consumption and sleep patterns. The main aim was to score their joint impact, while at the same time accounting for contextual factors. This work adopted the ecological systems framework which accommodates multiple factors. Based on this theory, a simultaneous system of equations considering child weight status, risk behavior and contextual factors was set up and analyzed using 3SLS. Findings indicated that dietary behaviors remain a major factor in affecting weight status. In addition, feedback mechanism from child weight status will influence the diet pattern adopted by the child. Sleep sufficiency had no effect on child weight status.

A simultaneous demand and supply model for the U.S. ski/wakeboard boat market is estimated by three-stage least squares and iterated three-stage least squares methods using publicly available data. The model is used to test if, and to what extent, certain factors impact the annual quantity of new ski/wakeboard boats demanded and supplied. Statistical analysis suggests that the model does a good job of explaining the annual quantity of new ski/wakeboard boats demanded and supplied. The findings are most immediately beneficial to manufacturers and dealers. Dealers can use the results to better forecast demand which in turn will lead to more efficient production planning for manufacturers.

Considerando as micorregiões do Censo Agropecuário de 1995-1996 e dos Censos Demográficos de 1991 e 2000, este trabalho estima, primeiramente, uma função de produção Cobb-Douglas. Para tal, controla-se o efeito dos preços regionais sobre o valor da produção. São levados em conta fatores tradicionais (mão-de-obra, terra, insumos químicos e capital) e o capital humano (nível de escolaridade formal e conhecimento de mercado). A estimativa foi obtida através do método de mínimos quadrados em três estágios – MQ3E. O método se justifica pelo modelo econômico proposto ser um sistema de equações (estima-se também a demanda por capital e o custo relativo da utilização deste fator) e pela forte presença de heteroscedasticia na estimação em mínimos quadrados ordinários – MQO. Em seguida, estima-se a Produtividade Total dos Fatores – PTF por estado, verificando-se a contribuição relativa do capital humano. / Using data from the Agricultural Census of 1995-96 and the Demographic Censuses of 1991 and 2000, this dissertation first estimate a Cobb-Douglas production function. The value of production is calculated in order to control the effect of regional prices. Traditional factors (labor, land, fertilizers and capital) and human capital (years of schooling and market knowledge) are used as explanatory variables in the production function. The economic model is a simultaneous equations system that considers both decisions to produce and maximize profits. Results of the proposed economic model are obtained by using the three-stage least squares (3-SLS) method due to presence of heteroskedasticity. Afterwards, total productivity factor (TFP) is estimated to each of the Brazilian states and the relative contribution of human capital is analyzed.

Considerando as micorregiões do Censo Agropecuário de 1995-1996 e dos Censos Demográficos de 1991 e 2000, este trabalho estima, primeiramente, uma função de produção Cobb-Douglas. Para tal, controla-se o efeito dos preços regionais sobre o valor da produção. São levados em conta fatores tradicionais (mão-de-obra, terra, insumos químicos e capital) e o capital humano (nível de escolaridade formal e conhecimento de mercado). A estimativa foi obtida através do método de mínimos quadrados em três estágios – MQ3E. O método se justifica pelo modelo econômico proposto ser um sistema de equações (estima-se também a demanda por capital e o custo relativo da utilização deste fator) e pela forte presença de heteroscedasticia na estimação em mínimos quadrados ordinários – MQO. Em seguida, estima-se a Produtividade Total dos Fatores – PTF por estado, verificando-se a contribuição relativa do capital humano. / Using data from the Agricultural Census of 1995-96 and the Demographic Censuses of 1991 and 2000, this dissertation first estimate a Cobb-Douglas production function. The value of production is calculated in order to control the effect of regional prices. Traditional factors (labor, land, fertilizers and capital) and human capital (years of schooling and market knowledge) are used as explanatory variables in the production function. The economic model is a simultaneous equations system that considers both decisions to produce and maximize profits. Results of the proposed economic model are obtained by using the three-stage least squares (3-SLS) method due to presence of heteroskedasticity. Afterwards, total productivity factor (TFP) is estimated to each of the Brazilian states and the relative contribution of human capital is analyzed.

The impact of political and economic events on the asset pricing model described by the arbitrage pricing theory (APTM) was examined in order to establish if they had caused any changes in its specification. It was concluded that the APTM is not stationary and that it must be continuously tested before it can be used as political and economic events can change its specification. It was also found that political events had a more direct effect on the specification of the APTM, in that their effect is more immediate, than did economic events, which influenced the APTM by first influencing the economic environment in which it operated. The conventional approach that would have evaluated important political and economic events, case by case, to determine whether they affected the linear factor model (LFM), and subsequently the APTM, could not be used since no correlation was found between the pricing of a risk factor in the LFM and its subsequent pricing in the APTM. A new approach was then followed in which a correlation with a political or economic event was sought whenever a change was detected in the specification of the APTM. This was achieved by first finding the best subset LFM, chosen for producing the highest adjusted R2 , month by month, over 87 periods from 20 October1991 to 21 June 1998, using a combination of nine prespecified risk factors (five of which were proxies for economic events and one for political events). Multivariate analysis techniques were then used to establish which risk factors were priced most often during the three equal subperiods into which the 87 periods were broken up. Using the above methodology, the researcher was able to conclude that political events changed the specification of the APTM in late 1991. After the national elections in April 1994 it was found that the acceptance of South Africa into the world economic community had again changed the specification of the APTM and the two most important factors were proxies for economic events. / Business Leadership / DBL

Cette thèse analyse l’impact des facteurs institutionnels et de la gouvernance sur l’investissement privé dans les pays en développement. La problématique de la « bonne gouvernance » et de l’amélioration de la qualité institutionnelle notamment dans les pays en développement sont au coeur des préoccupations de la communauté internationale. Pour autant, il n’existe pas un cadre institutionnel et un système de gouvernance unique et optimal qui s’imposeraient de manière exogène à tous les pays, car les facteurs culturels, historiques et anthropologiques modèlent la qualité des institutions et le mode de gouvernance. En effet, si les pays peuvent avoir un objectif commun, celui d’un cadre institutionnel permettant notamment de garantir la viabilité et la crédibilité du climat d’investissement, ils démarrent tous de points différents, marqués par des caractéristiques propres.Ces facteurs nous emmènent à privilégier une approche relativiste et non normative de la qualité des institutions et de la gouvernance. Cependant,tous les cadres institutionnels ne se valent pas. Certaines configurations institutionnelles accroissent l’incertitude et l’irréversibilité de l’investissement. Nos analyses placent le déficit de gouvernance et la faiblesse des institutions au cœur de la problématique de l’incertitude et de l’irréversibilité de l’investissement dans les pays en développement. Nous adoptons dans cette thèse une démarche plurielle consistant en une analyse macroéconométrique qui permet d’apprécier le comportement de l’investissement au niveau agrégé, et une analyse microéconométrique qui a l’intérêt de prendre en compte l’hétérogénéité des comportements d’investissement des entreprises. Un accent particulier est porté à l’Afrique subsaharienne qui est la région ayant le plus faible taux d’investissement. / This thesis analyzes the impact of governance and institutions on private investment in developing countries. "Good governance" and institutional quality especially in developing countries are of great concern to the international community. However, there is no unique and optimal institutional framework and governance system which can be set up in all countries independently to their cultural, historical and anthropological characteristics. Indeed, if all countries can share a common objective which consists of an institutional framework, able to ensure the sustainability and credibility of the investment climate, they will all start from different points with specific characteristics. These factors lead us to favor a non normative approach of the quality of institutions and governance. However, some institutional framework increases uncertainty and irreversibility ofinvestment. In this thesis, we consider weak institutions and poor governance as the main sources of uncertainty and irreversibility of investment indeveloping countries. We use a macroeconometric approach which analyses the investment behavior at the aggregate level, and a microeconometric approach which takes into account the heterogeneity of the investment behavior of firms. An emphasis is put on sub-Saharan African countries that have the lowest private investment rate.

The impact of political and economic events on the asset pricing model described by the arbitrage pricing theory (APTM) was examined in order to establish if they had caused any changes in its specification. It was concluded that the APTM is not stationary and that it must be continuously tested before it can be used as political and economic events can change its specification. It was also found that political events had a more direct effect on the specification of the APTM, in that their effect is more immediate, than did economic events, which influenced the APTM by first influencing the economic environment in which it operated. The conventional approach that would have evaluated important political and economic events, case by case, to determine whether they affected the linear factor model (LFM), and subsequently the APTM, could not be used since no correlation was found between the pricing of a risk factor in the LFM and its subsequent pricing in the APTM. A new approach was then followed in which a correlation with a political or economic event was sought whenever a change was detected in the specification of the APTM. This was achieved by first finding the best subset LFM, chosen for producing the highest adjusted R2 , month by month, over 87 periods from 20 October1991 to 21 June 1998, using a combination of nine prespecified risk factors (five of which were proxies for economic events and one for political events). Multivariate analysis techniques were then used to establish which risk factors were priced most often during the three equal subperiods into which the 87 periods were broken up. Using the above methodology, the researcher was able to conclude that political events changed the specification of the APTM in late 1991. After the national elections in April 1994 it was found that the acceptance of South Africa into the world economic community had again changed the specification of the APTM and the two most important factors were proxies for economic events. / Business Leadership / DBL