The study was undertaken in response to a prediction by the Virginia Department of Forestry (VDOF) that current harvest levels cannot be sustained into the future given an increasing growth to removal insufficiency throughout the state of Virginia. The purpose of the study is to determine how market signals, land and owner characteristics, and owner preferences affect landowners' decisions concerning their forestland. Particular emphasis is placed on the effects of absenteeism and land fragmentation on landowner behavior. Such information is important for targeting policies that will successfully maintain commercial timber levels throughout the state. / Master of Science

Given the neoclassical assumptions of optimizing economic agents, perfect information, perfect competition, and productive efficiency, timber supply is a dynamic process. Different discrete-time dynamic timber supply models and their solution methods are compared and their common elements derived. A continuous-time model is derived, but not solved. The discrete-time timber supply model is then incorporated into a dynamic multi-sector model and a dynamic general equilibrium model. In the multi-sector model, all household's utility functions are aggregated into a single community utility function which is maximized subject to the technology of the economy. The technology for the forest sector is the same as in the discrete-time dynamic timber supply models. Wood is treated as an intermediate input into the production of consumer goods. The technology of the consumer goods sectors is based on the technology used in computable general equilibrium models. The optimal steady state problem for this model is discussed, and the solution for an example problem is presented. Disaggregating the utility function is necessary for modeling true general equilibrium. This greatly complicates the problem of Ending numerical solutions, but enriches the model considerably. The formulation of the general equilibrium model as an optimization problem is described, but proved rather difficult to solve. The optimal steady state problem can be solved using an algorithm developed by Scarf (1967) for finding fixed points of continuous functions. The fixed-point approach provides a reliable solution method and appears to have more potential for modeling departures from perfect competition than the optimization approach. The equivalence of the two approaches is discussed. / Ph. D.

Conservation easements are increasingly becoming a popular land use control for landowners, government agencies and non-profit conservation organizations. These legal documents restrict a landowner's development rights and constrain other property uses. The landowner (grantor) voluntarily places an easement on his or her property, while the government agency or qualified conservation organization (grantee) holds it in perpetuity. While the Land Trust Alliance's (LTA) most recent estimate of easement-protected land amounts to nearly 2.6 million acres in 2000, an estimate of forestland protected is nonexistent. Additionally, no empirical studies address forest management on current easements nationwide, although a few studies address forestry at the state- or regional-level. As a result, this survey was designed to address three goals by sampling 1,527 conservation organizations and 63 state government agencies that may hold conservation easements. The first goal estimates total forestland protected. The second goal determines forestry restrictions commonly found in current easements. The third goal ascertains the impact of easements on forest management and timber supply. Survey results show that over 536 conservation organizations and 20 state agencies hold over 16,025 conservation easements on 4.9 million acres of all land types. Of these totals, a minimum of 3,598 easements protect over 2.5 million forestland acres. Forest management restrictions tend to vary based on the protected property's forest resources. The desires of the grantee holding the easement also influence the type and level of forestry restrictions. To date, conservation easement restrictions do not appear to impact timber supply nationally, although local or regional timber supply may be impacted in the future, especially in the Northeast. Several conclusions offer technical insights on forestland protection by conservation easements. First, grantees should complete a baseline forest inventory prior to placing an easement on a forested property. This inventory provides a basis for drafting effective easement provisions and permits future monitoring. Second, grantees should encourage professionally-written forest management plans on every working forest easement. Third, all conservation organizations need to work cooperatively with government agencies in locating potential conservation lands. GIS/GPS technology helps demonstrate the spatial relationship of conservation easements to other government-protected lands, promoting efficient location of properties that augment other protected lands. / Master of Science

This dissertation comprises three interrelated studies exploring the effects of hurricanes on forestlands and the optimization of salvage logging practices. The first study examines land cover changes and salvage logging patterns following Hurricane Michael. It utilizes predictive models to identify key drivers of these changes, exploring the relative influence of storm intensity, forest vulnerability, and economic/operational factors. The second study builds upon these findings, focusing on the agent attribution for land cover change observations leveraging advanced remote sensing tools and relevant spatial data. By distinguishing between wind damage and salvage logging activities, it advances the understanding of post-hurricane land cover dynamics. The third study introduces a novel timber supply model that utilizes robust stochastic optimization to optimize salvage operations under uncertainty. It integrates various data sources to optimize site selection, transportation logistics, and resource allocation under uncertain timber stocks, aiming to enhance salvage operations' efficiency and economic returns. Collectively, these studies provide valuable insights for improved hurricane disturbance management.

To address the scale mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in British Columbia, salvage has become fully integrated with timber supply strategies. The objective of this thesis is to assess the economic impact of different salvage strategies depending on different attack levels, decay rates, and stakeholder discount rates. The study area is located in N.E. British Columbia where the MPB has not yet reached its peak and where susceptible to attack stands account for 40% of the area. Salvage strategies were modelled with a timber supply model (Woodstock) which uses a linear programming type II optimization approach. Performance of the model was assessed over a range of indicators such as NPV, profit, salvage proportion, species composition, inventory levels, and non-recoverable volume. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on harvest flow, discount rate, and ending inventory. The model was very sensitive to the intensity of attack and less sensitive to the decay level. The high level of attack resulted in large volume losses, mostly as un-salvaged inventory. Although allowable annual cut (AAC) uplifts have an economic benefit, they do not necessarily maximize the salvage of pine. Non-pine species are an important component of the salvage and these species are also essential for the future timber supply. If the objective is to ensure quality and quantity of the future forest, policies have to complement AAC uplifts by strongly encouraging the salvage of mainly pine-leading stands and management options that minimize the “by-catch” of non-pine species and minimize destruction of advanced regeneration during salvage. However, this has an opportunity cost for the private industry where the objective is to maximize profit. If the salvage strategy focuses on decreasing the impact on cash flows, achieving desirable ending inventory levels, avoiding salvage of stands after shelf-life, and reducing impact on non-attack species, then the current harvest level will likely lead to a mid-term timber supply fall-down. Using the fibre for bioenergy production is an alternative if managing for bioenergy can be integrated into harvest operations. However, unlike mill residues, the bioenergy supply has to fully account for harvest and transportation costs of dead wood to the mill.

To address the scale mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in British Columbia, salvage has become fully integrated with timber supply strategies. The objective of this thesis is to assess the economic impact of different salvage strategies depending on different attack levels, decay rates, and stakeholder discount rates. The study area is located in N.E. British Columbia where the MPB has not yet reached its peak and where susceptible to attack stands account for 40% of the area. Salvage strategies were modelled with a timber supply model (Woodstock) which uses a linear programming type II optimization approach. Performance of the model was assessed over a range of indicators such as NPV, profit, salvage proportion, species composition, inventory levels, and non-recoverable volume. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on harvest flow, discount rate, and ending inventory. The model was very sensitive to the intensity of attack and less sensitive to the decay level. The high level of attack resulted in large volume losses, mostly as un-salvaged inventory. Although allowable annual cut (AAC) uplifts have an economic benefit, they do not necessarily maximize the salvage of pine. Non-pine species are an important component of the salvage and these species are also essential for the future timber supply. If the objective is to ensure quality and quantity of the future forest, policies have to complement AAC uplifts by strongly encouraging the salvage of mainly pine-leading stands and management options that minimize the “by-catch” of non-pine species and minimize destruction of advanced regeneration during salvage. However, this has an opportunity cost for the private industry where the objective is to maximize profit. If the salvage strategy focuses on decreasing the impact on cash flows, achieving desirable ending inventory levels, avoiding salvage of stands after shelf-life, and reducing impact on non-attack species, then the current harvest level will likely lead to a mid-term timber supply fall-down. Using the fibre for bioenergy production is an alternative if managing for bioenergy can be integrated into harvest operations. However, unlike mill residues, the bioenergy supply has to fully account for harvest and transportation costs of dead wood to the mill.

To address the scale mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in British Columbia, salvage has become fully integrated with timber supply strategies. The objective of this thesis is to assess the economic impact of different salvage strategies depending on different attack levels, decay rates, and stakeholder discount rates. The study area is located in N.E. British Columbia where the MPB has not yet reached its peak and where susceptible to attack stands account for 40% of the area. Salvage strategies were modelled with a timber supply model (Woodstock) which uses a linear programming type II optimization approach. Performance of the model was assessed over a range of indicators such as NPV, profit, salvage proportion, species composition, inventory levels, and non-recoverable volume. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on harvest flow, discount rate, and ending inventory. The model was very sensitive to the intensity of attack and less sensitive to the decay level. The high level of attack resulted in large volume losses, mostly as un-salvaged inventory. Although allowable annual cut (AAC) uplifts have an economic benefit, they do not necessarily maximize the salvage of pine. Non-pine species are an important component of the salvage and these species are also essential for the future timber supply. If the objective is to ensure quality and quantity of the future forest, policies have to complement AAC uplifts by strongly encouraging the salvage of mainly pine-leading stands and management options that minimize the “by-catch” of non-pine species and minimize destruction of advanced regeneration during salvage. However, this has an opportunity cost for the private industry where the objective is to maximize profit. If the salvage strategy focuses on decreasing the impact on cash flows, achieving desirable ending inventory levels, avoiding salvage of stands after shelf-life, and reducing impact on non-attack species, then the current harvest level will likely lead to a mid-term timber supply fall-down. Using the fibre for bioenergy production is an alternative if managing for bioenergy can be integrated into harvest operations. However, unlike mill residues, the bioenergy supply has to fully account for harvest and transportation costs of dead wood to the mill. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate