This paper examines the methodology currently used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate unemployed entrants into the labor force. Unemployed entrants are individuals who enter the labor force for the first time, or after an absence of a year or more. Since these individuals lack current work experience, they are not eligible to receive unemployment compensation and therefore are not accounted for in the Unemployment Insurance system. According to the national Current Population Survey, unemployed entrants make up approximately 40 percent of the total unemployed. The estimation of unemployed entrants is a crucial step in the development of unemployment estimates at the labor market level. This paper demonstrates that the current method in use does not produce realistic estimates. Inconsistencies in the methodology are discussed and an econometric model is presented that produces more accurate measurements of the number of unemployed entrants into the labor force. / Master of Arts

Explicit parameterizations of labor supply are specified and estimated on a sample of single unattached individuals using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a generalized Tobit maximum likelihood method which is consistent under the assumption that employed hours are exogenous. Results of these estimations are then used to compute triangle approximation and direct closed form solutions for labor market constraint compensation. Underemployment compensation estimates are generated and compared to actual and hypothetical payments which would accrue under the UI systems of representative states. Certain compensation results for overemployment are also offered. Where they are directly comparable, results from Tobit estimation of the basic labor supply relations are found to strictly dominate ordinary least squares (OLS) results in terms of efficiency. While the OLS and Tobit parameter estimates differ dramatically in most cases, the latter are consistent with the bulk of recent empirical labor supply research. A corollary purpose of estimating the several labor supply specifications is the search for an appropriate structure of preferences to be used in modeling the labor-leisure choice problem. Direct likelihood ratio tests yielded no best form, but suggested that more flexible parameterizations are to be desired. Results on compensation amounts tend to support accepted standards of UI benefit adequacy. For all levels of unemployment the direct compensation results suggested that "one-half gross wage replacement" would slightly overcompensate individuals from a utility based perspective.

O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar se a probabilidade dos trabalhadores do mercado formal serem demitidos aumenta quando esses são elegíveis ao recebimento do seguro-desemprego. Utilizando da Relações Anuais de Informações Sociais (RAIS), a alteração na elegibilidade ao auxílio promovida pela MP665/2014 permitiu uma estimação de diferenças em diferenças a fim de identificar esse efeito. O resultado encontrado aponta uma queda de 0,73 p.p. na probabilidade de demissão sem justa causa dos grupos que eram elegíveis no período anterior à mudança e deixaram de ser após sua entrada em vigor, em comparação com os não-elegíveis nos dois períodos. A partir desse número, conclui-se que pelo menos 13% das demissões sem justa causa são induzidas. Os efeitos são maiores para os indivíduos empregados em firmas pequenas, que tenham baixa escolaridade e que não estejam no setor de serviços ou indústria. Utilizando a Pesquisa Mensal do Emprego (PME) em uma análise complementar, conclui-se que 34% dos indivíduos que saem do formal para acessar o seguro-desemprego se empregam no setor informal no mês subsequente. / This study investigates whether the probability of Brazilian formal workers being laid-off increases when they are elegible to receive the unemployment insurance. Using an administrative data, Relações Anuais de Informações Sociais (RAIS), for the universe of formal workers, we estimate the effect of a change in the elibility criteria on the probability of lay-off for the workers using a diff-in-diff model. The results point out to a 0,73 p.p. decrease in this probability for groups who were elegible before the change and became inelegible afterwards, in comparison to the non-eligible workers in both periods. We conclude that fake layoffs accounts for at least 13% of total layoffs. The effects are more relevant for workers employed in small firms, with low education level and not employed in service or industrial sectors. In an additional analysis using a survey of labor force, Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME), we find that 34% of workers engaged in fake layoffs are reemployed in the informal sector in the next month.

<p>There have been numerous studies, both theoretical and empirical, dealing with how the degree of experience rating affects employment. The results have been often contradicting, giving ground for ongoing debate among the economists. Here in this thesis I will present the most central studies done concerning the effects on employment induced by layoff costs and UI payroll tax in particular. A special interest will be put on the implicit-contract model, since it appears to be especially useful when studying the effects of experience rating. The theoretical approaches and the existing empirical evidence will be discussed. By doing this survey I will make an attempt in explaining and summarizing the crucial and sometimes contradicting conclusions made though the years, so that a reader unfamiliar with those concepts will be able to easily grasp.</p>

There have been numerous studies, both theoretical and empirical, dealing with how the degree of experience rating affects employment. The results have been often contradicting, giving ground for ongoing debate among the economists. Here in this thesis I will present the most central studies done concerning the effects on employment induced by layoff costs and UI payroll tax in particular. A special interest will be put on the implicit-contract model, since it appears to be especially useful when studying the effects of experience rating. The theoretical approaches and the existing empirical evidence will be discussed. By doing this survey I will make an attempt in explaining and summarizing the crucial and sometimes contradicting conclusions made though the years, so that a reader unfamiliar with those concepts will be able to easily grasp.

Thesis (doctoral)--Universität Erlangen, 1929. / Includes bibliographical references (p. v-vi).

Thesis (doctoral)--Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 345-352).

Th. doc. : Droit : Toulouse : 1935. / Bibliogr. p. [235]-238.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, Los Angeles, 2007. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (doctoral)--Universität Zürich, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references and index.