This research investigates motivational and procedural aspects of households’ long-term decisions of residential locations. The main goal of the research is to develop microbehavioural models of location processes in order to implement this critical land use component within a microsimulation-based model of Integrated Land Use, Transportation and Environment (ILUTE). The research takes a disaggregate and longitudinal approach to develop the models, which is consistent with the real-world decision-making process of households concerning their movements from one residence to another over time. It identifies two sequential model components to represent households’ relocation behaviour: (1) a model of household residential mobility that determines whether a household decides to become active in the housing market, and (2) a (re) location choice model. Both components are empirically investigated using retrospective surveys of housing careers. For the residential mobility decision, the research tests continuous-time hazard duration models and discrete-time panel logit models, and attempts to capture heterogeneity effects due to repeated choices within both modelling techniques. A discrete-time random parameter model is selected for implementation within ILUTE since it incorporates time-varying covariates. Assuming a sequential decision process, this mobility decision model is linked to the (re) location choice model that establishes preference orderings for each active household for a given set of dwelling units that it considers to relocate within the housing market. A unique feature of the (re) location model developed in this research is that it incorporates reference dependence that explicitly recognizes the role of the status quo and captures asymmetric responses towards gains and losses in making location choice decisions. The research then estimates an asking price model, which is used to generate base prices for active dwellings to interact with active households through a market clearing process within a microsimulation environment. A multilevel model that simultaneously accounts for both temporal and spatial heterogeneity is developed in this research using multi-period property transaction data. Finally, this research simulates evolution of households’ location choices for a twenty-year period (1986-2006) and compares the results against observed location patterns.

This research investigates motivational and procedural aspects of households’ long-term decisions of residential locations. The main goal of the research is to develop microbehavioural models of location processes in order to implement this critical land use component within a microsimulation-based model of Integrated Land Use, Transportation and Environment (ILUTE). The research takes a disaggregate and longitudinal approach to develop the models, which is consistent with the real-world decision-making process of households concerning their movements from one residence to another over time. It identifies two sequential model components to represent households’ relocation behaviour: (1) a model of household residential mobility that determines whether a household decides to become active in the housing market, and (2) a (re) location choice model. Both components are empirically investigated using retrospective surveys of housing careers. For the residential mobility decision, the research tests continuous-time hazard duration models and discrete-time panel logit models, and attempts to capture heterogeneity effects due to repeated choices within both modelling techniques. A discrete-time random parameter model is selected for implementation within ILUTE since it incorporates time-varying covariates. Assuming a sequential decision process, this mobility decision model is linked to the (re) location choice model that establishes preference orderings for each active household for a given set of dwelling units that it considers to relocate within the housing market. A unique feature of the (re) location model developed in this research is that it incorporates reference dependence that explicitly recognizes the role of the status quo and captures asymmetric responses towards gains and losses in making location choice decisions. The research then estimates an asking price model, which is used to generate base prices for active dwellings to interact with active households through a market clearing process within a microsimulation environment. A multilevel model that simultaneously accounts for both temporal and spatial heterogeneity is developed in this research using multi-period property transaction data. Finally, this research simulates evolution of households’ location choices for a twenty-year period (1986-2006) and compares the results against observed location patterns.

This thesis investigates the impact of physical planning policy on combined transport and dwelling-related energy use by households. Separate analyses and reviews are conducted into dwelling-related and transport-related energy use by households, before a model is developed to investigate the city-wide implications of different land-use scenarios in Sydney, Australia. The analysis of household energy use in Chapter 3 suggests that medium density housing (i.e. lose-rise apartments, townhouses, and terraces) is likely to result in the lowest per-capita energy use, while also allowing for sufficient densities to make frequent public transport service viable. The analysis of transport energy in Chapter 4 confirms that increasing urban density is associated with decreased car ownership and use, independent of other factors. However, land use changes alone are likely to result in modest changes to travel behaviour. The results of the scenario modelling in Chapters 7-9 support the view that changes to land use alone can reduce household energy consumption, but the changes, even over a long time period (25 years) are small (~0-10%) for all but the most extreme land-use policies. Instead, a coordinated (land-use/transport and other policy levers) approach is much more effective. The results confirm that it is transport energy that is most sensitive to planning policy, but that a combined consideration of dwelling-related and transport-related energy use is still useful. The micro-simulation model developed to assess the impact of different land-use planning scenarios allows the establishment of a lower-bound estimate of the effect that housing policy has on household energy use, assuming ‘business as usual’ transport policy, household behaviour, and technology.

This thesis investigates the impact of physical planning policy on combined transport and dwelling-related energy use by households. Separate analyses and reviews are conducted into dwelling-related and transport-related energy use by households, before a model is developed to investigate the city-wide implications of different land-use scenarios in Sydney, Australia. The analysis of household energy use in Chapter 3 suggests that medium density housing (i.e. lose-rise apartments, townhouses, and terraces) is likely to result in the lowest per-capita energy use, while also allowing for sufficient densities to make frequent public transport service viable. The analysis of transport energy in Chapter 4 confirms that increasing urban density is associated with decreased car ownership and use, independent of other factors. However, land use changes alone are likely to result in modest changes to travel behaviour. The results of the scenario modelling in Chapters 7-9 support the view that changes to land use alone can reduce household energy consumption, but the changes, even over a long time period (25 years) are small (~0-10%) for all but the most extreme land-use policies. Instead, a coordinated (land-use/transport and other policy levers) approach is much more effective. The results confirm that it is transport energy that is most sensitive to planning policy, but that a combined consideration of dwelling-related and transport-related energy use is still useful. The micro-simulation model developed to assess the impact of different land-use planning scenarios allows the establishment of a lower-bound estimate of the effect that housing policy has on household energy use, assuming ‘business as usual’ transport policy, household behaviour, and technology.

This thesis investigates the impact of physical planning policy on combined transport and dwelling-related energy use by households. Separate analyses and reviews are conducted into dwelling-related and transport-related energy use by households, before a model is developed to investigate the city-wide implications of different land-use scenarios in Sydney, Australia. The analysis of household energy use in Chapter 3 suggests that medium density housing (i.e. lose-rise apartments, townhouses, and terraces) is likely to result in the lowest per-capita energy use, while also allowing for sufficient densities to make frequent public transport service viable. The analysis of transport energy in Chapter 4 confirms that increasing urban density is associated with decreased car ownership and use, independent of other factors. However, land use changes alone are likely to result in modest changes to travel behaviour. The results of the scenario modelling in Chapters 7-9 support the view that changes to land use alone can reduce household energy consumption, but the changes, even over a long time period (25 years) are small (~0-10%) for all but the most extreme land-use policies. Instead, a coordinated (land-use/transport and other policy levers) approach is much more effective. The results confirm that it is transport energy that is most sensitive to planning policy, but that a combined consideration of dwelling-related and transport-related energy use is still useful. The micro-simulation model developed to assess the impact of different land-use planning scenarios allows the establishment of a lower-bound estimate of the effect that housing policy has on household energy use, assuming ‘business as usual’ transport policy, household behaviour, and technology.

Understanding and simulating the relationship between urban land-use configuration and patterns of human spatial interaction has been the subject of multi-disciplinary research. Conceptually, it is recognized that the location decisions of several urban actors including individuals, households, firms and public sector institutions, collectively determine the spatial distribution of land-use activities; the emergent land-use patterns, in turn, provide the structural conditions within which flows and interactions between locations occur daily and respond to each other over time. Over the past six decades, various theories and concepts from urban economics, social-physics, transportation studies, and the complexity sciences have underpinned empirical research and development of state-of-the-art simulation models to explore the land-use and travel nexus. Using a case study design and selecting the Kumasi Metropolis, a medium-size metropolis of nearly two-million inhabitants in Ghana, West Africa as the case study area, two main objectives, which reflect research trends and gaps in both the empirical literature and simulation model development have been addressed in this thesis. The first objective was to examine empirically, the location choice behaviour of households and individuals with respect to their residential and job locations, and the mobility patterns associated with the observed home-work location combinations within the metropolis. The second objective was to develop an integrated geospatial and agent-based model to simulate how the residential and job location choice behaviour of heterogeneous households and individuals co-emerge with mobility patterns in the metropolis. The empirical studies presented in this thesis contributes to a deeper understanding of how location-defining attributes at multiple spatial-scales interact with socio-demographic attributes of heterogeneous households and individuals to determine their residential location choice, job location choice and mobility characteristics. The development of the Metropolitan Location and Mobility Patterns Simulator (METLOMP-SIM)—an integrated geospatial and agent-based model also demonstrates how the encoded micro-scale behaviour of purposive households and individuals, interacting with each other and their environment dynamically, could reproduce macro-scale urban location patterns, property market price formation and evolution, and patterns and attributes of spatial flows and interactions anchored on the population’s residential-job location combinations.

Neste trabalho de pesquisa desenvolveu-se uma metodologia, através de ensaios em túnel de vento, para determinar as cargas sobre estruturas altas situadas em centros urbanos e considerando a distribuição aleatória do entorno superficial. Assim, como este estudo trata do problema da determinação de cargas de estruturas situadas em centros urbanos, produziu-se, em primeiro lugar, o campo de velocidades de fundo, caracterizado por um terreno suburbano e definido pelo Código Brasileiro NBR/6123, Terreno Categoria IV. Posteriormente, nas cercanias do modelo em estudo, adicionou-se o entorno superficial. Para contemplar as variações das cargas provocadas pelo vento no entorno rugoso, as estruturas que o conformam dimensionaram-se através da Técnica Monte Carlo. Apresenta-se um método para reproduzir o entorno superficial em zonas centrais de grandes cidades, considerando a natureza aleatória das dimensões e a separação das construções, permitindo simular campos ou processos aleatórios, neste caso o entorno, definido como um campo aleatório tridimensional, em termos da densidade de probabilidade e da densidade espectral das construções. Analisou-se a estrutura da camada limite urbana na região inferior, por meio das medições em diferentes alturas das velocidades medias e flutuantes, intensidade de turbulência, macroescala integral e escala temporal da turbulência e espectros da componente de velocidade flutuante longitudinal. A bibliografia indica que para verificar a presença da subcamada rugosa, em camada limite sobre superfície rugosa, é suficiente comprovar que as tensões de Reynolds aumentam com a altura de medição. Neste trabalho, sem haver realizado medições de Tensões de Reynolds, foi possível reconhecer a presença da subcamada rugosa através de medições e comparações em diferentes alturas de velocidades médias e valores estatísticos da componente flutuante longitudinal do escoamento médio. Verificou-se que o campo de velocidade em centro urbano é nitidamente tridimensional e que a direção do vento de fundo influi no campo de velocidade. Ademais, sugeriu-se um espectro de potência para análise dinâmica de edifícios altos expostos à ação do vento em ambientes urbanos, assim como recomendações referidas à variação de velocidade e intensidade de turbulência da componente longitudinal da turbulência. Para analisar a confiabilidade das cargas de vento sugeridas nos códigos de vento Argentino e Brasilero estudaram-se as cargas sobre dois modelos de diferentes alturas, medidas em condição de modelo isolado e situado em seis situações de entornos rugosos diferentes. As cargas medidas foram momentos de flexão na base longitudinal e transversal ao escoamento médio e momento de torção. Com os resultados obtidos, pode-se avaliar as diferenças com respeito às cargas sugeridas pelos códigos NBR 6123 e CIRSOC 102 e as variações provocadas ao modificar as rugosidades superficiais. / In this research work a methodology to determine loads on tall structures located in urban centres is proposed. The proposal is based in wind tunnel tests and considers a random distribution of the surface environment. As this study deals with the determination of wind loads on structures located in urban centres, firstly the background wind velocity field, characterized by a suburban terrain, which is defined by the Brazilian code of practice NBR/6123 as a terrain of Category IV, had to be reproduced. Thereafter, the near environment of the model under study was added. In order to take into account the variations of loads caused by the random environment, the structures that shape it were dimensioned using the Monte Carlo technique. A procedure to reproduce the surface neighbouring in central areas of large cities considering the random nature of both size and distribution of buildings is presented. This procedure allows simulating either random fields or processes, in this case the neighbouring, which is defined as a three-dimensional random field, in terms of both its probability density and its spectral density. The structure of the lower part of the urban boundary layer was studied by means of measurements at different heights of both fluctuating and mean velocities, turbulence intensity, integral macroscale and time scale of turbulence, and spectra of the longitudinal fluctuating velocity component. It is widely accepted in the literature that verifying that the Reynold stresses increases with height is sufficient to prove the existence of the rough sublayer in a boundary layer over rough surface. As in this work Reynolds stresses were not measured, it was possible to distinguish the presence of a roughness surface through measurements and comparisons of mean velocities and statistical values of the longitudinal fluctuating component of the mean flow at different heights. It was verified that the velocity field in an urban centre is clearly three-dimensional and that the direction of the background wind has influence on the velocity field. Furthermore, a power spectrum for the dynamic analysis of tall buildings exposed to wind in urban environments is suggested as well as guidelines regarding the variation of both the velocity and turbulence intensity of the longitudinal component of the turbulence. Loads over two models were studied in order to analyse the reliability of the loads suggested by codes of Argentina e Brasilero. The models had different heights and loads were measured with the models isolated and in six situations of different rough urban environments. The loads that were measured were longitudinal-to-the-mean-flow and transversal-to-themean- flow bending and torsion moments. With these results it was possible to assess the differences with regard to loads suggested by the code NBR 6123 and CIRSOC 102 and the variations appearing when changing the surface roughness.

Neste trabalho de pesquisa desenvolveu-se uma metodologia, através de ensaios em túnel de vento, para determinar as cargas sobre estruturas altas situadas em centros urbanos e considerando a distribuição aleatória do entorno superficial. Assim, como este estudo trata do problema da determinação de cargas de estruturas situadas em centros urbanos, produziu-se, em primeiro lugar, o campo de velocidades de fundo, caracterizado por um terreno suburbano e definido pelo Código Brasileiro NBR/6123, Terreno Categoria IV. Posteriormente, nas cercanias do modelo em estudo, adicionou-se o entorno superficial. Para contemplar as variações das cargas provocadas pelo vento no entorno rugoso, as estruturas que o conformam dimensionaram-se através da Técnica Monte Carlo. Apresenta-se um método para reproduzir o entorno superficial em zonas centrais de grandes cidades, considerando a natureza aleatória das dimensões e a separação das construções, permitindo simular campos ou processos aleatórios, neste caso o entorno, definido como um campo aleatório tridimensional, em termos da densidade de probabilidade e da densidade espectral das construções. Analisou-se a estrutura da camada limite urbana na região inferior, por meio das medições em diferentes alturas das velocidades medias e flutuantes, intensidade de turbulência, macroescala integral e escala temporal da turbulência e espectros da componente de velocidade flutuante longitudinal. A bibliografia indica que para verificar a presença da subcamada rugosa, em camada limite sobre superfície rugosa, é suficiente comprovar que as tensões de Reynolds aumentam com a altura de medição. Neste trabalho, sem haver realizado medições de Tensões de Reynolds, foi possível reconhecer a presença da subcamada rugosa através de medições e comparações em diferentes alturas de velocidades médias e valores estatísticos da componente flutuante longitudinal do escoamento médio. Verificou-se que o campo de velocidade em centro urbano é nitidamente tridimensional e que a direção do vento de fundo influi no campo de velocidade. Ademais, sugeriu-se um espectro de potência para análise dinâmica de edifícios altos expostos à ação do vento em ambientes urbanos, assim como recomendações referidas à variação de velocidade e intensidade de turbulência da componente longitudinal da turbulência. Para analisar a confiabilidade das cargas de vento sugeridas nos códigos de vento Argentino e Brasilero estudaram-se as cargas sobre dois modelos de diferentes alturas, medidas em condição de modelo isolado e situado em seis situações de entornos rugosos diferentes. As cargas medidas foram momentos de flexão na base longitudinal e transversal ao escoamento médio e momento de torção. Com os resultados obtidos, pode-se avaliar as diferenças com respeito às cargas sugeridas pelos códigos NBR 6123 e CIRSOC 102 e as variações provocadas ao modificar as rugosidades superficiais. / In this research work a methodology to determine loads on tall structures located in urban centres is proposed. The proposal is based in wind tunnel tests and considers a random distribution of the surface environment. As this study deals with the determination of wind loads on structures located in urban centres, firstly the background wind velocity field, characterized by a suburban terrain, which is defined by the Brazilian code of practice NBR/6123 as a terrain of Category IV, had to be reproduced. Thereafter, the near environment of the model under study was added. In order to take into account the variations of loads caused by the random environment, the structures that shape it were dimensioned using the Monte Carlo technique. A procedure to reproduce the surface neighbouring in central areas of large cities considering the random nature of both size and distribution of buildings is presented. This procedure allows simulating either random fields or processes, in this case the neighbouring, which is defined as a three-dimensional random field, in terms of both its probability density and its spectral density. The structure of the lower part of the urban boundary layer was studied by means of measurements at different heights of both fluctuating and mean velocities, turbulence intensity, integral macroscale and time scale of turbulence, and spectra of the longitudinal fluctuating velocity component. It is widely accepted in the literature that verifying that the Reynold stresses increases with height is sufficient to prove the existence of the rough sublayer in a boundary layer over rough surface. As in this work Reynolds stresses were not measured, it was possible to distinguish the presence of a roughness surface through measurements and comparisons of mean velocities and statistical values of the longitudinal fluctuating component of the mean flow at different heights. It was verified that the velocity field in an urban centre is clearly three-dimensional and that the direction of the background wind has influence on the velocity field. Furthermore, a power spectrum for the dynamic analysis of tall buildings exposed to wind in urban environments is suggested as well as guidelines regarding the variation of both the velocity and turbulence intensity of the longitudinal component of the turbulence. Loads over two models were studied in order to analyse the reliability of the loads suggested by codes of Argentina e Brasilero. The models had different heights and loads were measured with the models isolated and in six situations of different rough urban environments. The loads that were measured were longitudinal-to-the-mean-flow and transversal-to-themean- flow bending and torsion moments. With these results it was possible to assess the differences with regard to loads suggested by the code NBR 6123 and CIRSOC 102 and the variations appearing when changing the surface roughness.

Neste trabalho de pesquisa desenvolveu-se uma metodologia, através de ensaios em túnel de vento, para determinar as cargas sobre estruturas altas situadas em centros urbanos e considerando a distribuição aleatória do entorno superficial. Assim, como este estudo trata do problema da determinação de cargas de estruturas situadas em centros urbanos, produziu-se, em primeiro lugar, o campo de velocidades de fundo, caracterizado por um terreno suburbano e definido pelo Código Brasileiro NBR/6123, Terreno Categoria IV. Posteriormente, nas cercanias do modelo em estudo, adicionou-se o entorno superficial. Para contemplar as variações das cargas provocadas pelo vento no entorno rugoso, as estruturas que o conformam dimensionaram-se através da Técnica Monte Carlo. Apresenta-se um método para reproduzir o entorno superficial em zonas centrais de grandes cidades, considerando a natureza aleatória das dimensões e a separação das construções, permitindo simular campos ou processos aleatórios, neste caso o entorno, definido como um campo aleatório tridimensional, em termos da densidade de probabilidade e da densidade espectral das construções. Analisou-se a estrutura da camada limite urbana na região inferior, por meio das medições em diferentes alturas das velocidades medias e flutuantes, intensidade de turbulência, macroescala integral e escala temporal da turbulência e espectros da componente de velocidade flutuante longitudinal. A bibliografia indica que para verificar a presença da subcamada rugosa, em camada limite sobre superfície rugosa, é suficiente comprovar que as tensões de Reynolds aumentam com a altura de medição. Neste trabalho, sem haver realizado medições de Tensões de Reynolds, foi possível reconhecer a presença da subcamada rugosa através de medições e comparações em diferentes alturas de velocidades médias e valores estatísticos da componente flutuante longitudinal do escoamento médio. Verificou-se que o campo de velocidade em centro urbano é nitidamente tridimensional e que a direção do vento de fundo influi no campo de velocidade. Ademais, sugeriu-se um espectro de potência para análise dinâmica de edifícios altos expostos à ação do vento em ambientes urbanos, assim como recomendações referidas à variação de velocidade e intensidade de turbulência da componente longitudinal da turbulência. Para analisar a confiabilidade das cargas de vento sugeridas nos códigos de vento Argentino e Brasilero estudaram-se as cargas sobre dois modelos de diferentes alturas, medidas em condição de modelo isolado e situado em seis situações de entornos rugosos diferentes. As cargas medidas foram momentos de flexão na base longitudinal e transversal ao escoamento médio e momento de torção. Com os resultados obtidos, pode-se avaliar as diferenças com respeito às cargas sugeridas pelos códigos NBR 6123 e CIRSOC 102 e as variações provocadas ao modificar as rugosidades superficiais. / In this research work a methodology to determine loads on tall structures located in urban centres is proposed. The proposal is based in wind tunnel tests and considers a random distribution of the surface environment. As this study deals with the determination of wind loads on structures located in urban centres, firstly the background wind velocity field, characterized by a suburban terrain, which is defined by the Brazilian code of practice NBR/6123 as a terrain of Category IV, had to be reproduced. Thereafter, the near environment of the model under study was added. In order to take into account the variations of loads caused by the random environment, the structures that shape it were dimensioned using the Monte Carlo technique. A procedure to reproduce the surface neighbouring in central areas of large cities considering the random nature of both size and distribution of buildings is presented. This procedure allows simulating either random fields or processes, in this case the neighbouring, which is defined as a three-dimensional random field, in terms of both its probability density and its spectral density. The structure of the lower part of the urban boundary layer was studied by means of measurements at different heights of both fluctuating and mean velocities, turbulence intensity, integral macroscale and time scale of turbulence, and spectra of the longitudinal fluctuating velocity component. It is widely accepted in the literature that verifying that the Reynold stresses increases with height is sufficient to prove the existence of the rough sublayer in a boundary layer over rough surface. As in this work Reynolds stresses were not measured, it was possible to distinguish the presence of a roughness surface through measurements and comparisons of mean velocities and statistical values of the longitudinal fluctuating component of the mean flow at different heights. It was verified that the velocity field in an urban centre is clearly three-dimensional and that the direction of the background wind has influence on the velocity field. Furthermore, a power spectrum for the dynamic analysis of tall buildings exposed to wind in urban environments is suggested as well as guidelines regarding the variation of both the velocity and turbulence intensity of the longitudinal component of the turbulence. Loads over two models were studied in order to analyse the reliability of the loads suggested by codes of Argentina e Brasilero. The models had different heights and loads were measured with the models isolated and in six situations of different rough urban environments. The loads that were measured were longitudinal-to-the-mean-flow and transversal-to-themean- flow bending and torsion moments. With these results it was possible to assess the differences with regard to loads suggested by the code NBR 6123 and CIRSOC 102 and the variations appearing when changing the surface roughness.

O presente trabalho investiga possibilidades quanto à utilização de dados desagregados, especificamente do Cadastro Nacional de Endereços para Fins Estatísticos (CNEFE) do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), em modelos e análises urbanas. A divulgação do CNEFE representa uma mudança no quadro histórico de escassez de dados a respeito do uso do solo urbano no Brasil. Nesse novo contexto em que a aquisição deste tipo de informação – sem perder de vista suas contingências – deixa de ser uma debilidade em estudos a respeito das cidades brasileiras, apresenta-se nesta dissertação quatro métodos de modelagem e análise sob a perspectiva dos sistemas configuracionais urbanos que lançam mão do CNEFE enquanto insumo. Ao longo de três capítulos com características de artigos, explora-se primeiro a construção de modelos descritivos a partir dos dados; em seguida, busca-se como avaliar a nitidez com que os dois modelos produzidos descrevem o sistema urbano representado; e, por último, discute-se como confrontar os resultados da análise da acessibilidade do sistema urbano com os dados do modelo. Como estudo de caso, utilizou-se a cidade de Ijuí, RS. / This work investigates possibilities regarding the use of disaggregated data, specifically from the National Addressing Record for Statistical Purposes (CNEFE) of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in urban modelling and analysis. The release of CNEFE represents a change in the historic scenario of land use data shortage in Brazil. Within this new context, in which the acquisition of this kind of information is no longer a weakness for research on Brazilian cities, this dissertation presents four methods for the construction of urban models and analyses under the perspective of urban configurational systems. Along three paper-like chapters, we first explore the construction of descriptive models with the mentioned data; then, we evaluate how sharply the produced models can describe the represented system; and, at last, we discuss how to confront the results of the accessibility analysis with the data. As a case study, we used the city of Ijuí, in Southern Brazil.