Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is one of the most economically significant viral diseases facing the global swine industry. Viraemia profiles of PRRS virus challenged pigs reflect the severity and progression of infection within the host and provide crucial information for subsequent control measures. In this thesis we analyse the largest longitudinal PRRS viraemia dataset from an in-vivo experiment, and corresponding immune measures in the form of cytokine data and neutralising antibodies. In the PRRS Host Genetic Consortium (PHGC) trials, pigs were challenged with one of two PRRSV isolates (NVSL and KS06, respectively). In Chapter 2 we derive a statistical description of the temporal changes in viraemia and determine the influence of diverse factors (e.g. PRRSV strain, pig genetic background, resistance genotype, etc.) on viraemia profiles. The well-established methodology of linear mixed modelling with a repeated measures model and fitting a linearized Wood’s function, a gamma-type function, is applied to the viraemia dataset. The virus isolate had a significant impact on the viraemia profiles which was captured by statistically significant differences in model parameters via both statistical methods. The more virulent NVSL isolate had higher early viraemia predictions and a faster rate of decline than KS06. In line with previous studies the WUR “resistance” genotype, associated with lower AUC viraemia found in previous studies, also resulted in lower viraemia predictions in the statistical models. The typical time trends of the viraemia profiles were a rise to a peak followed by a period of decline with dynamics and magnitude influenced by the virus isolate. Both uni and bimodal viraemia profiles were observed. The Wood’s model appeared a suitable candidate model for the data associated with uni-modal profiles and captured the time trends concisely in only three model parameters which also had a biological relevance. Overall the best fitting Wood’s model (y=atbe-ct) was when there was a random effect in Wood’s parameters b and c. Bimodal profiles significantly reduced the model fit, particularly in the later phase of infection resulting in large model residuals. However bimodal profiles did not impact upon the significance of the differences between the LSM repeated measures estimates nor the LSM linearized Wood’s model parameter estimates. The longitudinal viraemia measures from the PRRSV challenge experiment revealed substantial differences in the viraemia profiles between hosts infected with the same PRRSV challenge dose, pointing to considerable variation in the host response to PRRSV infections. In Chapter 3 we provide a suitable mathematical description of all viraemia profiles with biologically meaningful parameters for quantitative analysis of profile characteristics. The Wood’s function and a biphasic extended Wood’s function were fit to the individual profiles using Bayesian inference with a likelihood framework in Chapter 3. Using maximum likelihood inference and numerous fit criteria, we established that the broad spectrum of viraemia trends could be adequately represented by either uni-or biphasic Wood’s functions. Three viraemic categories emerged: cleared (uni-modal and below detection within 42 days post infection(dpi)), persistent (transient experimental persistence over 42 dpi) and rebound (biphasic within 42 dpi). The convenient biological interpretation of the model parameters estimates, allowed us not only to quantify inter-host variation, but also to establish common viraemia curve characteristics and their predictability. The convenient biological interpretation of the model parameters estimates, allowed us not only to quantify inter-host variation, but also to establish common viraemia curve characteristics and their predictability, which were utilized in subsequent quantitative genetic analyses to identify genomic regions associated with these new resistance traits. The Bayesian approach for curve fitting in Chapter 3 led to better model fits than the classical linear mixed models approach of Chapter 2. Furthermore in Chapter 4 we explored the association between the observed PRRS viraemia profile characteristics and the corresponding measures of the immune response in the form of: neutralising antibody (nAb) cross protection data and longitudinal cytokine profiles. Statistical analysis of the profile characteristics revealed that persistent profiles were distinguishable already within the first 21 dpi, whereas it is not possible to predict the onset of viraemia rebound. Analysis of the neutralizing antibody (nAb) data indicated that there was a ubiquitous strong response to the homologous PRRSV challenge, but high variability in the range of cross-protection of the nAbs. Persistent pigs were found to have a significantly higher nAb cross-protectivity than pigs that either cleared viraemia or experienced rebound within 42 dpi. We determined the typical features and time trends of each cytokine profile, examined the associations between cytokines, and characterised the cytokine response. A stronger association was found in the direction of cytokines driving the ensuing viraemia characteristics as opposed to vice versa. It was found that viraemia class differences were best captured in the anti-viral cytokine IFNA and also the chemokine CCL2, furthermore these key cytokines were the most strongly associated with viraemia measures. The breadth of the cytokine responsiveness was associated with viral profile class and genetic background but not the WUR genotype. The statistical categorization of pigs from each PHGC trial through model fitting provides a critical basis for the generation of new desirable host phenotypes, and of potential use in the genetic selection of pigs with favourable infection traits. Our study provides novel insights into the nature and degree of variation of hosts’ responses to infection as well as new informative traits for subsequent genetic and modelling studies.

INTRODUÇÃO: Pacientes em terapia anti-retroviral podem apresentar escapes transitórios de viremia plasmática (blip), porém os preditores desse evento e seu impacto sobre a incidência de falência virológica são ainda controversos na literatura. Neste estudo de coorte estimou-se a incidência de blip e de falência virológica e investigaram-se possíveis preditores de tais desfechos. Blip foi definido como carga viral superior a 50 cópias/mL com subseqüente supressão da viremia plasmática e falência virológica como duas medidas consecutivas de carga viral plasmática superiores a 50 cópias/mL. Adicionalmente, pesquisou-se, por ocasião desses eventos, a presença de mutações genotípicas de HIV capazes de conferir resistência aos anti-retrovirais e as concentrações plasmáticas de inibidores não nucleosídicos da transcriptase reversa e inibidores da protease, comparando-as com o relato dos participantes sobre adesão à medicação. MÉTODOS: 350 participantes infectados pelo HIV (250 homens e 100 mulheres) foram selecionados no Serviço de Extensão ao Atendimento de Pacientes com HIV/Aids Casa da Aids do Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP, São Paulo, Brasil. Na admissão ao estudo e trimestralmente, ao longo de 78 semanas, foram coletadas informações sobre dados sóciodemográficos, forma presumida de aquisição do vírus, uso de e adesão a medicações anti-retrovirais, ocorrência de outras comorbidades, bem como uso de álcool e de drogas ilícitas. Investigaram-se fatores potencialmente associados à incidência dos desfechos de interesse, tais como ocorrência de outras doenças, exposição a imunizações e falha na adesão a práticas de sexo mais seguro. Amostras de sangue periférico foram coletadas a cada visita para determinação de carga viral plasmática por RT-PCR ultrassensível, e contagem de linfócitos T CD4+ por citometria de fluxo. Nos indivíduos que apresentaram os desfechos de interesse do estudo, procedeu-se ao seqüenciamento dos genes da transcriptase reversa e da protease de HIV e à dosagem plasmática dos anti-retrovirais por método de Cromatografia Líquida de Alta Performance. As incidências de blip e falência virológica foram estimadas e os fatores associados a ambos investigados em modelo de regressão logística múltipla. RESULTADOS: As incidências de blip e falência virológica foram 9,4 e 4,2/100 pessoas-ano, respectivamente. Três indivíduos apresentaram falência virológica precedidos por blip. À análise multivariada, a não adesão às praticas de sexo mais seguro no mês precedente se mostrou independentemente associada à ocorrência de blip (OR 24,64, IC 95% 4,40 137,88, p<0,001) e de falência virológica (OR 24,69, IC 95% 4,20 145,18, p<0,001). Adicionalmente, observou-se que a exposição prévia a maior número de esquemas anti-retrovirais foi preditora dos eventos blip (OR 1,82, IC 95% 1,41 2,36, p<0,001) e falência virológica (OR 1,67, IC 95% 1,19 2,35, p=0,003). A ocorrência de blip não se associou ao desenvolvimento posterior de falência virológica. Um maior número de mutações conferidoras de resistência medicamentosa foi identificado no momento de falência virológica, quando comparado ao momento de blip, com predomínio de mutações no gene da transcriptase reversa, refletindo o maior uso desses fármacos. Das 122 concentrações plasmáticas de anti-retrovirais analisadas em 120 amostras, 84 estavam em níveis terapêuticos adequados. Porém, tais resultados apresentaram apenas 69% de concordância com a adesão auto-referida à medicação. Este estudo mostra que apresentar blip em uma medida isolada pode ser um evento benigno; por outro lado, falência virológica pode ser conseqüente a acúmulo de mutações conferidoras de resistência a pelo menos um dos anti-retrovirais em uso, podendo comprometer a eficácia do esquema terapêutico utilizado. Ambos os desfechos mostraram-se mais incidentes na população multiexperimentada à terapêutica, que, portanto, merece atenção particular. Uma importante contribuição deste estudo foi a avaliação da dosagem plasmática dos antiretrovirais, método simples e de baixo custo, que, implantado na rotina laboratorial, pode contribuir para o monitoramento da adesão aos antiretrovirais e reduzir a demanda por testes genotípicos / BACKGROUND: HIV-1-infected patients under antiretroviral therapy may present intermittent viremia (blip); however, predictors of this outcome and its influence on the incidence of virologic failure remain controversial in the literature. The aim of this study is to estimate the incidence of blip and virologic failure in a cohort of patients under stable antiretroviral therapy and to investigate their associated factors. Blip was defined as a plasma HIVRNA load above 50 copies/mL followed by a subsequent value below 50 copies/mL. Virologic failure was defined as two consecutives measures of viral load above 50 copies/mL. Moreover, at time of occurrence of these outcomes, HIV genotyping assays were performed in search of drug resistance-associated mutations, and plasma concentrations of nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors assessed and compared with self-reported adhrence to therapy. METHODS: 350 subjects (250 male and 100 female) were enrolled at the HIV Clinic, School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Brazil and followed for 78 weeks. At baseline and in 3-month interval follow-up visits we collected sociodemographic data and information on presumed mode of HIV acquisition, use of and adherence to antiretrovirals, comorbidities and use of alcohol and illicit drugs. Additionally, patients were questioned about potential predictors of the outcomes, including occurrence of other diseases, immunizations and risky sexual behavior. Blood samples were drawn for assessment of HIV plasma viral loads, using ultrasensitive RT-PCR, and T CD4+ cell counts by flow cytometry. Individuals who presented blip and/or virologic failure were submitted to HIV genotyping assays and assessment of antiretroviral plasma concentrations by high-performance liquid chromatography. Incidences of blip and virological failure were estimated and associated factors investigated, using a multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: The incidence of blip and of virologic failure were 9.4/100 and 4.2/100 person-years, respectively. Three individuals presented virologic failure after blip episodes. On multivariate analysis, non-adherence to safer sex measures in the previous month was shown independently associated with the occurrence of blip (OR 24.64, 95%CI 4.40 137.88, p<0.001) and virologic failure (OR 24.69, 95%CI 4.20 145.18, p<0.001). In addition, history of multiple exposures to antiretroviral regimens was also a predictor of blip (OR 1.82, 95%CI 1.41 2.36, p<0.001) and virologic failure (OR 1.67, 95%CI 1.19 2.35, p<0.001). Blips were not predictive of virologic failure. A larger number of HIV mutations were identified at time of virologic failure, as compared to blip episodes, with mutations detected predominantly in the reverse transcriptase (RT) gene, probably due to larger exposure to RT inhibitors. Eighty-four out of 122 assessments of antiretroviral plasma concentrations analyzed in 120 samples resulted in the therapeutic range. However, these results were concordant with self-reported adherence to therapy in 69% of cases only. This study shows that a single blip episode may be considered benign, whereas virologic failure could result from accumulation of HIV drug resistance-associated mutations that may impair the efficacy of therapy. Both study outcomes occurred more frequently among patients with larger exposure to antiretrovirals, and therefore they should be monitored in this regard. An important contribution of this study concerns the assessment of antiretroviral plasma concentrations, a simple and low cost laboratory tool. Incorporated routinely in patient follow-up, it would help monitoring adherence to therapy and reduce the need for HIV genotyping assays

INTRODUÇÃO: Pacientes em terapia anti-retroviral podem apresentar escapes transitórios de viremia plasmática (blip), porém os preditores desse evento e seu impacto sobre a incidência de falência virológica são ainda controversos na literatura. Neste estudo de coorte estimou-se a incidência de blip e de falência virológica e investigaram-se possíveis preditores de tais desfechos. Blip foi definido como carga viral superior a 50 cópias/mL com subseqüente supressão da viremia plasmática e falência virológica como duas medidas consecutivas de carga viral plasmática superiores a 50 cópias/mL. Adicionalmente, pesquisou-se, por ocasião desses eventos, a presença de mutações genotípicas de HIV capazes de conferir resistência aos anti-retrovirais e as concentrações plasmáticas de inibidores não nucleosídicos da transcriptase reversa e inibidores da protease, comparando-as com o relato dos participantes sobre adesão à medicação. MÉTODOS: 350 participantes infectados pelo HIV (250 homens e 100 mulheres) foram selecionados no Serviço de Extensão ao Atendimento de Pacientes com HIV/Aids Casa da Aids do Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP, São Paulo, Brasil. Na admissão ao estudo e trimestralmente, ao longo de 78 semanas, foram coletadas informações sobre dados sóciodemográficos, forma presumida de aquisição do vírus, uso de e adesão a medicações anti-retrovirais, ocorrência de outras comorbidades, bem como uso de álcool e de drogas ilícitas. Investigaram-se fatores potencialmente associados à incidência dos desfechos de interesse, tais como ocorrência de outras doenças, exposição a imunizações e falha na adesão a práticas de sexo mais seguro. Amostras de sangue periférico foram coletadas a cada visita para determinação de carga viral plasmática por RT-PCR ultrassensível, e contagem de linfócitos T CD4+ por citometria de fluxo. Nos indivíduos que apresentaram os desfechos de interesse do estudo, procedeu-se ao seqüenciamento dos genes da transcriptase reversa e da protease de HIV e à dosagem plasmática dos anti-retrovirais por método de Cromatografia Líquida de Alta Performance. As incidências de blip e falência virológica foram estimadas e os fatores associados a ambos investigados em modelo de regressão logística múltipla. RESULTADOS: As incidências de blip e falência virológica foram 9,4 e 4,2/100 pessoas-ano, respectivamente. Três indivíduos apresentaram falência virológica precedidos por blip. À análise multivariada, a não adesão às praticas de sexo mais seguro no mês precedente se mostrou independentemente associada à ocorrência de blip (OR 24,64, IC 95% 4,40 137,88, p<0,001) e de falência virológica (OR 24,69, IC 95% 4,20 145,18, p<0,001). Adicionalmente, observou-se que a exposição prévia a maior número de esquemas anti-retrovirais foi preditora dos eventos blip (OR 1,82, IC 95% 1,41 2,36, p<0,001) e falência virológica (OR 1,67, IC 95% 1,19 2,35, p=0,003). A ocorrência de blip não se associou ao desenvolvimento posterior de falência virológica. Um maior número de mutações conferidoras de resistência medicamentosa foi identificado no momento de falência virológica, quando comparado ao momento de blip, com predomínio de mutações no gene da transcriptase reversa, refletindo o maior uso desses fármacos. Das 122 concentrações plasmáticas de anti-retrovirais analisadas em 120 amostras, 84 estavam em níveis terapêuticos adequados. Porém, tais resultados apresentaram apenas 69% de concordância com a adesão auto-referida à medicação. Este estudo mostra que apresentar blip em uma medida isolada pode ser um evento benigno; por outro lado, falência virológica pode ser conseqüente a acúmulo de mutações conferidoras de resistência a pelo menos um dos anti-retrovirais em uso, podendo comprometer a eficácia do esquema terapêutico utilizado. Ambos os desfechos mostraram-se mais incidentes na população multiexperimentada à terapêutica, que, portanto, merece atenção particular. Uma importante contribuição deste estudo foi a avaliação da dosagem plasmática dos antiretrovirais, método simples e de baixo custo, que, implantado na rotina laboratorial, pode contribuir para o monitoramento da adesão aos antiretrovirais e reduzir a demanda por testes genotípicos / BACKGROUND: HIV-1-infected patients under antiretroviral therapy may present intermittent viremia (blip); however, predictors of this outcome and its influence on the incidence of virologic failure remain controversial in the literature. The aim of this study is to estimate the incidence of blip and virologic failure in a cohort of patients under stable antiretroviral therapy and to investigate their associated factors. Blip was defined as a plasma HIVRNA load above 50 copies/mL followed by a subsequent value below 50 copies/mL. Virologic failure was defined as two consecutives measures of viral load above 50 copies/mL. Moreover, at time of occurrence of these outcomes, HIV genotyping assays were performed in search of drug resistance-associated mutations, and plasma concentrations of nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors assessed and compared with self-reported adhrence to therapy. METHODS: 350 subjects (250 male and 100 female) were enrolled at the HIV Clinic, School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Brazil and followed for 78 weeks. At baseline and in 3-month interval follow-up visits we collected sociodemographic data and information on presumed mode of HIV acquisition, use of and adherence to antiretrovirals, comorbidities and use of alcohol and illicit drugs. Additionally, patients were questioned about potential predictors of the outcomes, including occurrence of other diseases, immunizations and risky sexual behavior. Blood samples were drawn for assessment of HIV plasma viral loads, using ultrasensitive RT-PCR, and T CD4+ cell counts by flow cytometry. Individuals who presented blip and/or virologic failure were submitted to HIV genotyping assays and assessment of antiretroviral plasma concentrations by high-performance liquid chromatography. Incidences of blip and virological failure were estimated and associated factors investigated, using a multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: The incidence of blip and of virologic failure were 9.4/100 and 4.2/100 person-years, respectively. Three individuals presented virologic failure after blip episodes. On multivariate analysis, non-adherence to safer sex measures in the previous month was shown independently associated with the occurrence of blip (OR 24.64, 95%CI 4.40 137.88, p<0.001) and virologic failure (OR 24.69, 95%CI 4.20 145.18, p<0.001). In addition, history of multiple exposures to antiretroviral regimens was also a predictor of blip (OR 1.82, 95%CI 1.41 2.36, p<0.001) and virologic failure (OR 1.67, 95%CI 1.19 2.35, p<0.001). Blips were not predictive of virologic failure. A larger number of HIV mutations were identified at time of virologic failure, as compared to blip episodes, with mutations detected predominantly in the reverse transcriptase (RT) gene, probably due to larger exposure to RT inhibitors. Eighty-four out of 122 assessments of antiretroviral plasma concentrations analyzed in 120 samples resulted in the therapeutic range. However, these results were concordant with self-reported adherence to therapy in 69% of cases only. This study shows that a single blip episode may be considered benign, whereas virologic failure could result from accumulation of HIV drug resistance-associated mutations that may impair the efficacy of therapy. Both study outcomes occurred more frequently among patients with larger exposure to antiretrovirals, and therefore they should be monitored in this regard. An important contribution of this study concerns the assessment of antiretroviral plasma concentrations, a simple and low cost laboratory tool. Incorporated routinely in patient follow-up, it would help monitoring adherence to therapy and reduce the need for HIV genotyping assays