• Refine Query
  • Source
  • Publication year
  • to
  • Language
  • 1
  • Tagged with
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Forcasting the Daily Air Temperature in Uppsala Using Univariate Time Series

Aggeborn Leander, Noah January 2020 (has links)
This study is a comparison of forecasting methods for predicting the daily maximum air temperatures in Uppsala using real data from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The methods for comparison are univariate time series approaches suitable for the data and represent both standard and more recently developed methods. Specifically, three methods are included in the thesis: neural network, ARIMA, and naïve. The dataset is split into a training set and a pseudo out of sample test set. The assessment of which method best forecast the daily temperature in Uppsala is done by comparing the accuracy of the models when doing walk forward validation on the test set. Results show that the neural network is most accurate for the used dataset for both one-step and all multi-step forecasts. Further, the only same-step forecasts from different models that have a statically significant difference are from the neural network and naïve for one- and two-step forecasts, in favor of the neural network.

Page generated in 0.1244 seconds