Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, 2015. / Submitted by Fernanda Percia França (fernandafranca@bce.unb.br) on 2016-01-21T17:34:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_TatianaDumkedaSilva.pdf: 5255303 bytes, checksum: 711a82519c1ecf8f130180a526c85efe (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Raquel Viana(raquelviana@bce.unb.br) on 2016-04-05T21:35:53Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_TatianaDumkedaSilva.pdf: 5255303 bytes, checksum: 711a82519c1ecf8f130180a526c85efe (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-05T21:35:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_TatianaDumkedaSilva.pdf: 5255303 bytes, checksum: 711a82519c1ecf8f130180a526c85efe (MD5) / O crescimento populacional acelerado e desordenado nos grandes centros urbanos tem sinalizado para um possível aumento na demanda dos sistemas de saneamento das cidades. Esse fato pode alterar a qualidade da água dos corpos hídricos receptores de efluentes. Essa realidade apresenta-se no eixo sudoeste do Distrito Federal e de seu Entorno, caracterizado por grande concentração populacional e altas taxas de crescimento populacional. Diante disso, o presente trabalho buscou avaliar o impacto do crescimento populacional na qualidade da água dos Rios Melchior e Descoberto, sendo esse último um afluente do reservatório Corumbá IV, que será futuramente utilizado como fonte de abastecimento de água. Para isso foi utilizada a integração do modelo de qualidade da água QUAL2K com o sistema de apoio à decisão Water Evaluation and Planning-WEAP criando-se diversos cenários relacionados ao crescimento populacional e alterações no processo operacional das estações de tratamento de esgoto (ETE) da região. Inicialmente desenvolveu-se a planilha do QUAL2K, e após a sua calibração, foi integrada ao WEAP para fazer as iterações para simular os cenários futuros. A principal vantagem dessa integração é obter melhores resultados para as simulações por meio do QUAL2K. Entretanto, ocorrem algumas perdas de informações pelo WEAP com a integração do modelo de qualidade da água. Foram simulados 4 cenários futuros simulados de 2010 a 2030. Todos os cenários indicaram diminuição na concentração de OD e aumento na de DBO no rio Descoberto, após a confluência com o rio Melchior, como era de se esperar. Os resultados dos diferentes cenários sugeriram que para garantir a conservação da qualidade da água do rio Descoberto e no lago Corumbá IV frente ao processo de adensamento populacional na região sudoeste do DF é importante ajustar os níveis de tratamento terciário das ETEs da região para patamares mais elevados, em torno de 95% de remoção de DBO. / The rapid and disordered population growth in urban centers has signaled for a increase in demand on sanitation systems of cities. This may change the water quality of water bodies effluent receivers. This reality can be seen in the southwest axle of the Federal District and its surrounding areas, characterized by high population concentration as well as high rates of population growth. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the impact of population growth on water quality of water bodies receiving effluent and trainers of the Corumba IV reservoir, which will be used in future as a water supply. It was made the integration of QUAL2K water quality model with the support system decision Water Evaluation and Planning-WEAP creating various scenarios related to population growth and changes in the operating process of sewage treatment plants (WWTP) of that region. Initially, the spreadsheet QUAL2K was developed, and after calibration, it was integrated into the WEAP to make iterations to simulate future scenarios. The main advantage of this integration was to get better results for the simulations through QUAL2K.However, there is some loss of information by WEAP with the integration of water quality model. Four scenarios were simulated between 2010 and 2030. All scenarios indicated that concentration of OD decreases and BOD concentration increases in the Descoberto, after the confluence with the river Melchior, as it was to be expected. The results of the different scenarios suggested that to ensure the conservation of the water quality of river Descoberto and Lake Corumbá IV, in relation with the population density process in the region southwest of DF, it is important to adjust the levels of treatment of wastewater treatment in the region to higher levels, around 95% of BOD removal.

Accelerated tropical glacial melt on the order of 15-18 meters per year since the 1980's in Peru's Cordillera Blanca region is alarming rural communities and urban authorities, causing them to seek technical support for risk management and adaptation actions. Melting glaciers coupled with changing seasonal rainfall patterns has left many rural communities in the upper Rio Santa basin lacking sufficient fresh water supply to support livestock, irrigation and human consumption. In response to these concerns, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was created by the Stockholm Environmental Institute for simulating glacial melt and flow in the Santa River. Through input parameters of climate, glacial runoff, water use, crop acreage, soil type and groundwater interactions, WEAP has the flexibility to model scenarios for different operation schemes. These schemes allow users to determine the most effective ways to regulate their resources and explore adaptation actions (e.g. altering farming practices and building reservoirs) for future planning. This project improved the existing model by including observed water demand data for irrigation, and evaluating the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset to serve as a potential source for filling gaps in the historic climate record. These improvements added robustness to the model and correlated well with historic stream flow at La Balsa (R² = 0.78 , Nash = 0.68). Two scenarios were explored where (1) a 50% reduction in potato crop was replaced with maize for each sub-basin, and (2) a 10% reduction in precipitation was applied over the upper basin. Results show that the WEAP model is sensitive to changes in crop type and rainfall at the sub-basin scale, an encouraging finding for future exploration. This investigation enables communities to base future decisions on technical evidence and provides a basis for educating citizens on the importance of evaluating their available resources under climate change projections / text

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第23591号 / 地環博第218号 / 新制||地環||42(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 宇佐美 誠, 教授 諸富 徹, 准教授 吉野 章 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DGAM

Understanding climate change and variability at urban scale is essential for water resource management, land use planning, and development of adaption plans. However, there are serious challenges to meet these goals due to unavailability of observed and / or simulated high resolution spatial and temporal climate data. Recent efforts made possible the availability of high resolution climate data from non-hydrostatic regional climate model (RCM) and statistically downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study investigates trends in climate and urbanization and their impact on surface water supply for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The methodology presented in this study focused on the observed and projected NIMRHadGEM2- AO model and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of B2 and A2 of HadCM3 model are also employed for rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature data using for climate analysis. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) modeling system was used for determination of climate and urbanization impacts on water. Land-Sat images were analyzed using Normalized Differencing Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was employed to investigate the major changes and intensity of the urban heat island (UHI). The result indicates monthly rainfall anomalies with respect to the baseline mean showing wet anomaly in summer (kiremt) during 2030s and 2050s, and a dry anomaly in the 2080s under A2 and B2 scenarios with exception of a wet anomaly in September over the city. The maximum temperature anomalies under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) also show warming during near, mid and end terms. The mean monthly minimum temperature anomalies under A2 and B2 scenarios are warm but the anomalies are much lower than RCPs. The climate under the RCP 8.5 and high population growth (3.3 %) scenario will lead to the unmet demand of 462.77 million m3 by 2039. Future projection of urban heat island under emission pathway of A2 and B2 scenario shows that, the nocturnal UHI will be intense in winter or dry season episodes in the city. Under A2 scenario the highest urban warming will occur during October to December (2.5 ºC to 3.2 ºC). Under RCP 8.5 scenario the highest urban warming will occur during October to December (0.5 ºC to 1.0 °C) in the 2050s and 2080s. Future management and adaptation strategies are to expand water supply to meet future demand and to implement demand side water management systems of the city and UHI / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Management)

Understanding climate change and variability at urban scale is essential for water resource management, land use planning, and development of adaption plans. However, there are serious challenges to meet these goals due to unavailability of observed and / or simulated high resolution spatial and temporal climate data. Recent efforts made possible the availability of high resolution climate data from non-hydrostatic regional climate model (RCM) and statistically downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study investigates trends in climate and urbanization and their impact on surface water supply for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The methodology presented in this study focused on the observed and projected NIMRHadGEM2- AO model and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of B2 and A2 of HadCM3 model are also employed for rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature data using for climate analysis. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) modeling system was used for determination of climate and urbanization impacts on water. Land-Sat images were analyzed using Normalized Differencing Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was employed to investigate the major changes and intensity of the urban heat island (UHI). The result indicates monthly rainfall anomalies with respect to the baseline mean showing wet anomaly in summer (kiremt) during 2030s and 2050s, and a dry anomaly in the 2080s under A2 and B2 scenarios with exception of a wet anomaly in September over the city. The maximum temperature anomalies under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) also show warming during near, mid and end terms. The mean monthly minimum temperature anomalies under A2 and B2 scenarios are warm but the anomalies are much lower than RCPs. The climate under the RCP 8.5 and high population growth (3.3 %) scenario will lead to the unmet demand of 462.77 million m3 by 2039. Future projection of urban heat island under emission pathway of A2 and B2 scenario shows that, the nocturnal UHI will be intense in winter or dry season episodes in the city. Under A2 scenario the highest urban warming will occur during October to December (2.5 ºC to 3.2 ºC). Under RCP 8.5 scenario the highest urban warming will occur during October to December (0.5 ºC to 1.0 °C) in the 2050s and 2080s. Future management and adaptation strategies are to expand water supply to meet future demand and to implement demand side water management systems of the city and UHI / College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Management)

MPH / Department of Public Health / Water quality of drinking water has been linked to good health outcomes across the world. The aim of this study was to assess physico-chemical, bacteriological, community practices regarding collection and storage of water and evaluation of human health risk characteristics of drinking water supplied by the government to Lufule village in Thulamela municipality, Limpopo Province, South Africa A cross-sectional study was conducted using questionnaires and interviews to determine drinking water handling practices and levels of contamination between the source and point-of-use at household. Assessment of water quality was carried out on 114 samples from selected sampling points using scientifically approved protocols. Total coliform was determined in 62.5% and 87.5% of the samples during the dry and wet seasons respectively. Similarly, E. coli was determined in 10.4 % and 13.2% in the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Trace metals levels in the drinking water samples were analysed and were within permissible range of both SANS and WHO. The calculated non-carcinogenic effects using hazard quotient toxicity potential, cumulative hazard index and chronic daily intake of drinking water through ingestion pathways were less than one unity, which showed that consumption of the water could pose little or no significant health risk. The results of this research suggest that lead has the potential of cancer risk to the residents through the cumulative ingestion in the drinking water samples of the studied area. Therefore, precaution needs to be taken to avoid potential risk of people in Lufule area especially, children. / NRF