China has undertaken a vast engineering project: the large-scale transfer of water from the south of the country to the north, the intention being to alleviate flooding in the south and water shortages in the north. It may take up to fifty years to complete. This thesis examines the broad outline of the scheme, the planning that has gone into it, its historical and political background, and the political, social, and ecological problems that it has encountered and may be likely to cause in the future. The political context of a 'pro-technology' policy amongst today's Chinese leaders is highlighted. The Chinese study is made in the light of water-transfer schemes that have been implemented, or proposed, in other countries; and also ideas about sustainable development, policy processes, and natural resource management. Five case studies are considered: the Aral Sea (Central Asia), the Snowy Mountain Scheme (Australia), the National Hydrological Plan (Spain), the Central Arizona Project (the United States) and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (China). They are examined as a basis for understanding policy problems and processes in water resource management, and also to make some suggestions for their resolution in the Chinese case―though finding a permanent or definitive solution lies beyond the scope of the present inquiry. The difficulties for traditional policy processes to manage uncertainty and complexity are particularly acute in the area of natural resource management. For example, climate change issues challenge present water management systems and diversion projects. Therefore, uncertainty and complexity issues, beyond the 'ideal' policy cycle, are considered, particularly in relation to climate change, but also the water diversion schemes themselves. Climate change presents a particularly important challenge to the Chinese Project.

China has undertaken a vast engineering project: the large-scale transfer of water from the south of the country to the north, the intention being to alleviate flooding in the south and water shortages in the north. It may take up to fifty years to complete. This thesis examines the broad outline of the scheme, the planning that has gone into it, its historical and political background, and the political, social, and ecological problems that it has encountered and may be likely to cause in the future. The political context of a 'pro-technology' policy amongst today's Chinese leaders is highlighted. The Chinese study is made in the light of water-transfer schemes that have been implemented, or proposed, in other countries; and also ideas about sustainable development, policy processes, and natural resource management. Five case studies are considered: the Aral Sea (Central Asia), the Snowy Mountain Scheme (Australia), the National Hydrological Plan (Spain), the Central Arizona Project (the United States) and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (China). They are examined as a basis for understanding policy problems and processes in water resource management, and also to make some suggestions for their resolution in the Chinese case―though finding a permanent or definitive solution lies beyond the scope of the present inquiry. The difficulties for traditional policy processes to manage uncertainty and complexity are particularly acute in the area of natural resource management. For example, climate change issues challenge present water management systems and diversion projects. Therefore, uncertainty and complexity issues, beyond the 'ideal' policy cycle, are considered, particularly in relation to climate change, but also the water diversion schemes themselves. Climate change presents a particularly important challenge to the Chinese Project.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T15:49:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 WaldirMBF_DISSERT.pdf: 3558667 bytes, checksum: 3035c50ccf49225a3c8264f6c395bf14 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-04-30 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / Understanding the historical and ecological relationships which are influent in current biological diversity is one of the most challenging tasks of evolutionary biology. Recent systematics emphasizes the need of integrative approaches to delimit different lineages and species. The northeastern Brazil, mostly placed in Caatinga biome, is characterized by a semi-arid weather, low precipitation and seasonal behavior of rivers. This region is regarded lacking as ichthyological knowledge and one of the most threatened by anthropic activities. Further, will be affected by a massive water diverpsion work that will transfer waters from S?o Francisco basin, to other major four basins: Jaguaribe, Apodi-Mossor?, Piranhas-A?u and Paraiba do Norte. Loss of diversity and richness, hibridizitation, community interactions changes, population homogenization, changes in water quality and flow regime, are examples of environmental impacts already related with similar works. The present study aims to investigate morphological and molecular variation of Cichlasoma orientale Kullander 1983 and Crenicichla menezesi Ploeg 1991, two cichlid species present in northeastern Brazil basins. Further, the study aims to evaluate the influence of geomorphological and climatic processes in this variation, and point some possible impacts of the artificial connectivity which can be brought by S?o Francisco interbasin water transfer to their population dynamics. Geometric morphometrics and phylogeographical analysis were used to investigate the populations from three different hydrological regions. Our results showed a significant morphological variation of populations from basins that are involved in the S?o Franscisco s diversion project, not related to an ancient separation between populations, emphasizing morphological variation which could represent a set of plastic responses to the variable hydrological regime in Northeastern Brazil. The role of plastical responses in naturally variable habitats as well as the potential disturbs that could be brought by the interbasin water transfer works are discussed here. Further, our molecular data allowed us to make inferences about species distribution and their taxonomy, and identification of a potential new species of Crenicichla for S?o Francisco river basin. Our data also allowed to identify some shared haplotypes for both species, which could be related to lineage sorting scenarios or recent gene flow between populations. However a strong structure in most of the pairwise comparisons between populations for both species was revealed. Climatic events such as Atlantic forest regression during the Pleistocene, sea level fluctuations and dispersion by paleorivers in the mouth of Apodi-Mossor? river, and neotectonic events regulating the connection between drainages are likely to have had a contribution for the actual lineages distribution in northeastern Brazil. Further, analysis of molecular variation (AMOVA and SAMOVA) showed that the actual basin s isolation is an important factor to molecular variation, in spite of the signal of recent contact between some basins. Different genetic diversity patterns between species could be related to multiple historic events of colonization, basins landscapes or biological differences. The present study represents the first effort of integrative systematics involving fish species of northeastern Brazil, and showed important morphological and molecular patterns which could be irrecoverably affected by the artificial connection that might be caused by the S?o Francisco interbasin water transfer / O Nordeste brasileiro, majoritariamente imerso no bioma Caatinga, se caracteriza pelo clima semi-?rido, baixa precipita??o e um regime de rios intermitentes. Quanto ao conhecimento ictiofaun?stico, a regi?o ? considerada uma das maiores lacunas mundiais, e uma das mais amea?adas pelas atividades antr?picas. Al?m disso, a regi?o est? passando por obras de transposi??o, que ligar? ?guas do rio S?o Francisco com quatro bacias da regi?o: Jaguaribe, Apodi-Mossor?, Piranhas-A?u e Para?ba do Norte. Perda de diversidade, hibridiza??o de esp?cies, altera??es de comunidade, homogeneiza??o de popula??es, altera??o de qualidade e regime de fluxo de ?gua, s?o impactos ambientais j? atribu?dos a empreendimentos similares. O presente estudo objetiva investigar a varia??o morfol?gica e molecular de Cichlasoma orientale Kullander 1983 e Crenicichla menezesi Ploeg 1991, duas esp?cies com ampla distribui??o ao longo das bacias do Nordeste brasileiro, atrav?s de m?todos de sistem?tica integrativa. Al?m disso, o estudo visa analisar a influ?ncia de fatores clim?ticos e geomorfol?gicos nesta varia??o, e apontar poss?veis impactos da conex?o artificial das bacias envolvidas na transposi??o do rio S?o Francisco. Para estes fins, foram utilizadas an?lises de morfometria geom?trica e filogeogr?ficas com indiv?duos de tr?s ecorregi?es hidrogr?ficas do Nordeste brasileiro. Nossos resultados mostraram que h? uma significativa varia??o morfol?gica nas bacias envolvidas na transposi??o do rio S?o Francisco, que n?o est? ligada ? uma separa??o ancestral das bacias, evidenciando uma varia??o morfol?gica que pode representar um conjunto de respostas pl?sticas ?s constantes transforma??es principalmente relacionadas ao regime h?drico da regi?o. O papel de respostas pl?sticas em ambientes naturalmente vari?veis, assim como o potencial impacto do dist?rbio no regime h?drico a ser trazido pela transposi??o do rio S?o Francisco, s?o discutidos. Al?m disso, nossos dados moleculares permitiram fornecer mais informa??es sobre a distribui??o das esp?cies e sua taxonomia, incluindo a identifica??o de uma potencial nova esp?cie de Crenicichla na bacia do rio S?o Francisco. Os dados tamb?m mostraram alguns hapl?tipos compartilhados para ambas as esp?cies, que podem representar cen?rios incompletos de separa??o de linhagens ou fluxo g?nico recente entre popula??es, por?m forte estrutura??o entre a maior parte das bacias. Eventos clim?ticos como a regress?o da Mata Atl?ntica durante o Pleistoceno, flutua??es do n?vel do mar e a dispers?o por paleorios na por??o estuarina das bacias que desaguam no litoral norte da regi?o nordeste, al?m de eventos neotect?nicos envolvendo captura de cabeceiras, parecem ter contribu?do para a atual distribui??o de linhagens destas esp?cies no Nordeste brasileiro. Al?m disso, an?lises de vari?ncia molecular (AMOVA e SAMOVA) evidenciaram que a atual conjuntura das bacias se mostrou um fator importante para a varia??o molecular, apesar da indica??o de compartilhamento recente entre algumas bacias. Diferen?as de padr?es de diversidade intrapopulacional entre as esp?cies podem estar relacionadas a m?ltiplos eventos hist?ricos de coloniza??o, ou ? diferen?as biol?gicas. O presente estudo representa o primeiro esfor?o de sistem?tica integrativa com esp?cies da ictiofauna continental do Nordeste brasileiro, e revelou varia??es morfol?gicas e moleculares entre drenagens isoladas que podem ser irrecuperavelmente afetadas com a conex?o artificial destas bacias a partir das obras de transposi??o do rio S?o Francisco

Les serpentinites sont les roches produites par l’hydratation de la péridotite au niveau du plancher océanique. L’antigorite est la phase de haute température et haute pression appartenant au groupe minéral des serpentines, pouvant contenir dans sa structure jusqu’à 13 wt% H2O, et permet ainsi le transfert de quantités considérables d’eau dans le manteau, à travers les processus de subduction. Sa déstabilisation est fonction du chemin thermique emprunté par la plaque plongeante. Durant cette thèse nous avons étudié deux cas de figure pour la déshydratation de l’antigorite menant soit à la libération des fluides dans le coin mantellique et à la production des magmas d’arc, soit au transfert de l’eau à plus grandes profondeurs).Dans un premier temps, des expériences de déshydratation d’antigorite naturelle ont été conduites sur la presse multi-enclumes à 3 GPa et entre 600 et 900°C. Les conditions oxydantes ou bien réductrices ont été contrôlées par le dispositif expérimental (four en graphite ou en chromite de lanthane). Cette étude a permis de caractériser les produits de déshydratation de l’antigorite dans un système chimique représentatif des systèmes naturels ainsi que de contraindre l’état redox des réactions associées. En effet, les résultats mis en avant par cette étude montrent une fO2 équivalente au tampon Quartz-Magnétite-Fayalite (QFM) +5. Un tel potentiel oxydant des fluides issus de la déshydratation de l’antigorite soutient l’hypothèse de l’oxydation de la source mantellique des magmas d’arcs, présentant des rapports Fe3+/Fetotal plus élevés que les basaltes de ride médio-océanique par exemple.Dans un second temps, nous nous sommes intéressés aux modalités de transfert de l’eau dans le manteau profond. L’antigorite naturelle a cette fois été déstabilisée à de plus fortes pressions allant de 6.5 à 10 GPa pour des températures comprises entre 500 et 850°C. Ces résultats expérimentaux, ainsi qu’une analyse géométrique des relations de phases dans le system FMASH selon la méthode de Shreinemaker, ont mis en avant des modifications dans le diagramme de phase pour un système ultramafique hydraté en comparaison des études précédentes. En effet, la phase A est communément décrite comme le produit de déstabilisation de l’antigorite à haute pression, tandis que la phase E n’apparait qu’à des profondeurs plus importantes. Nos résultats suggèrent, dans le système naturel enrichi en aluminium et en fer, une stabilité continue des phases hydratées, suivant la transition antigorite > phase E > phase A pour des températures inférieures à 750°C. Cette étude a également permis d’affiner les estimations des quantités d’eau pouvant être stockées dans les assemblages de minéraux hydratés stables dans la lithosphère plongeante (slab). Dans le cas des plaques plongeantes relativement froides (<750°C à 8-10 GPa) le transport de l’eau par le biais des « Dense Hydrous Magnesium Silicates » (DHMS) phase A et phase E soutient l’hypothèse de l’hydratation de la zone de transition dans le manteau. / From the Mid-Oceanic-Ridge to the subduction trench, hydration of peridotite minerals in the upper part of the oceanic lithosphere produces hydrous phases such as serpentine. Because of its high-water content (13 wt% H2O) this mineral family is of particular interest for water fluxes. Depending on the thermal path followed by the lithosphere while sinking into the mantle, antigorite destabilization can either lead to fluid release in the mantle wedge or water transfer to deeper levels. During this thesis we conducted experimental investigations of antigorite dehydration in the framework of these two scenarios.First, we investigated antigorite dehydration under conditions relevant to slab water release, known to trigger partial melting and to generate arc magmatism. Multi-anvil experiments were conducted on a natural serpentinite sample, at 3 GPa and between 600 and 900°C under different redox conditions. We were able to constrain phase assemblages produced by antigorite dehydration as well as the fO2 of such reactions to 5 units above the FMQ (Fayalite-Magnetite-Quartz buffer). These results support the oxidizing character of slab released fluids, that could explain the oxidized character of arc magmas compared to Mid-Oceanic-Ridge basalts or Oceanic-Island basalts.The second experimental work conducted during this thesis allowed to refine phase equilibria involving antigorite and the Dense Hydrous Magnesium Silicates (DHMS) phase A and phase E, in a realistic chemical composition for hydrated ultramafic system. Antigorite destabilization was performed between 6.5 and 10 GPa, for temperatures in the range <500-850°C. Our experimental results, together with a Shreinemaker’s analysis in the FMASH system led to establish a modified phase diagram compared to those presented in previous studies. While phase A has been described as the high-pressure product of antigorite breakdown in the literature, followed by phase E stability at higher pressure, we propose the transitionantigorite>phase E>phase A for the aluminous and iron-rich hydrated peridotite system. This study allowed the refinement of water budgets that can be stored in relatively cold slabs (<750°C at 8-10 GPa), supporting the hypothesis of water survival down to the transition zone.

This Master´s Dissertation aimed to analyze the functionality of the state in the public policies. representation on territorial reorientation, designed and engineered by capital in multiple scales and multiple actions to determine, by building the project of Interbasin transfer of the Sao Francisco River in the northeastern backcountry. The way to lead this research was supported by the dialectic and historical materialism. The men¢¥s Space is historical materiality, it occupies an intermediate position related by work relations, and the Territory to be the category which has the sense of ownership, present in the antagonism of class struggle power. The research from primary sources, secondary sources and interviews allowed to found out that the State has the discourse of ensuring water security to promote quality of food security, widely builds in northeastern Brazil water projects for the agricultural exports. The depth and sophistication of the water industry aims hydro-agribusiness, causing an increase in concentration of land ownership and domination of secular political groups. What we can find out is that not simply consolidates a drought industry, but an industry where appropriation of water is the guarantee of self-dealing nature as an economic resource, extending the control of the production process for the purpose of reproduction and capital¢¥s expansion. The fictitious state¢¥s discourse, endorsed by financing credit institutions, combating and eradication of poverty and misery leads to a valuable instrument of injection of capital, mainly in the agricultural area of northeastern backcountry. The capitalist advances showing the contradictions inherent follows its own the social character of capitalism¢¥s logic¢¥s expansion, creation and destruction than what is really needed for their reproduction: the human being and nature. The interbasin transfer of the Sao Francisco River, promotes two actions with determinant deadlines, the farmers. expropriation from the areas where there are agricultural export programs and the farmer¢¥s labor expropriation and its transformation into wage areas. Beside the state´s role in this current context, it is even more evident in the strong interventions through public-welfare policies, which mostly have the funding / credit as a driving force, further intensifying the poverty and misery at the expense of socially produced wealth, but that it is privatized into the shareholders hand. / A presente Dissertação de Mestrado teve como objetivo analisar a funcionalidade do Estado no simulacro das políticas públicas de reordenamento territorial, concebida e engendrada pelo capital em múltiplas escalaridades e em múltiplas determinações, através da construção do projeto de transposição do rio São Francisco, no sertão nordestino. A condução da investigação foi sustentada na concepção do materialismo histórico e dialético. As categorias geográficas Espaço e Território foram conceitos basilares, para nossa análise. O Espaço por ser a materialidade histórica dos homens, espaço das relações sociais mediadas e produzidas pelo trabalho, e o Território por ser a categoria que apresenta o sentido de propriedade, de poder presente no antagonismo da luta de classes. As pesquisas em fontes primárias, secundárias e as entrevistas possibilitaram constatar que o Estado com o discurso de garantir a segurança hídrica para promover qualidade à segurança alimentar, edifica amplamente no nordeste brasileiro projetos hídricos voltados para a agroexportação. O aprofundamento e sofisticação da indústria da água tem como finalidade o hidro-agronegócio, acarretando a ampliação da concentração fundiária e a secular dominação dos grupos políticos. O que se constata é que se consolida não simplesmente uma indústria da seca, mas uma indústria em que a apropriação da água é a garantia do favorecimento ilícito da natureza como recurso econômico, ampliando o controle do processo produtivo com o objetivo da reprodução e ampliação do capital. O discurso falacioso do Estado, referendado pelas instituições de financiamento de crédito, ao combate e erradicação da pobreza e miséria conduz a um instrumento valoroso de injeção de capital, principalmente no espaço agrário do sertão nordestino. O avanço capitalista segue mostrando as contradições inerentes a sua própria lógica sociometabólica para a expansão, criação e destruição do que lhe é necessário para sua reprodução: o ser humano e a natureza. A transposição do rio São Francisco promove duas ações em prazos determinantes: a expropriação dos camponeses das áreas atingidas pelo programa agroexportador e a expropriação do trabalho camponês e sua transformação em assalariados. Paralelamente, o papel do Estado neste atual contexto se evidencia ainda mais nas fortes intervenções através de políticas públicas e assistencialistas, que na sua maioria tem o financiamento/crédito como força motriz, intensificando ainda mais a pobreza e a miséria em detrimento da riqueza socialmente produzida, mas que é privatizada nas mãos dos detentores do capital.

L’allocation de la ressource de manière optimale, dans un système dynamique étendu, consiste à la répartir et à l’acheminer aux bons endroits, aux bons moments et en bonne quantité. Les flux transportés sont caractérisés par des non-linéarités et sont soumis à des retards lors de leur transfert, mais aussi, à des déformations importantes lorsque la ressource est un fluide. Dans ce travail, nous proposons de prendre en compte, dans la modélisation de ces systèmes, l’ensemble de ces contraintes pour une gestion optimale de transport de fluide. Le système est modélisé par un réseau de transport étendu afin de représenter l’évolution de la ressource au cours du temps et d’intégrer les retards inhérents aux transferts des flux. Afin d’introduire dans le graphe la dynamique des écoulements des fluides à surface libre, nous définissons des sommets de répartition permettant la modélisation des phénomènes de propagation des flux. Les objectifs de gestion sont représentés par des coûts sur les arcs. L’allocation optimale de la ressource est obtenue par la recherche du flot de coût minimal sur le réseau de transport. A cette fin, un algorithme d’optimisation prenant en compte les contraintes additionnelles issues des sommets de répartition est proposé. Les méthodes et algorithmes développés sont appliqués au cas des systèmes hydrographiques et à la problématique de l'allocation de la ressource en eau associée. Cette dernière est devenue cruciale en raison des effets négatifs de l'anthropisation des espaces naturels, du changement climatique et de l’augmentation des besoins. Il s’agit de partager la ressource en eau entre différents usagers, conformément à un ensemble d’objectifs et de priorités. L'allocation de la ressource en eau est réalisée en trois étapes principales : le diagnostic de l'état de la ressource disponible sur le système hydrographique à l'instant initial, incluant la prévision de son évolution sur l'horizon de gestion ; la détermination des actions à réaliser sur le système hydraulique pour allouer la ressource en respectant les contraintes et les objectifs ; la surveillance des données mesurées fournissant des indicateurs reconstitués de l’état du système. Les performances de la démarche proposée sont évaluées sur divers systèmes hydrographiques soumis à de multiples régimes hydrologiques. / Optimal allocation of the resource, in a large scale system, consists in distributing it and delivering it to the right places, at the right time and in the right quantity. The transported flows are characterized by nonlinearities and are subject to delays during their transfer, but also to significant deformations when the resource is a fluid. In this work, we propose to take into account, all these constraints in the modeling of these systems, for an optimal management of fluid transport. The system is modeled by an expanded flow network in order to represent the evolution of the resource over time and to integrate the delays that are inherent in flow transfers. In order to introduce the flow dynamics of open-channel flows into the graph, we define distribution nodes allowing to model the flow propagation phenomena. The water allocation objectives are represented by costs on the network’s arcs. The optimal allocation of the resource is obtained by the search for the minimal cost flow on the network. To this end, an optimization algorithm taking into account the additional constraints resulting from the distribution nodes is proposed. The methods and algorithms developed, are applied to the case of hydrographic systems and to the water resources management problem. The latter has become crucial due to the negative effects of anthropisation of natural areas, climate change and increasing needs. Water allocation consists in sharing the water resource between different users, according to a combination of objectives and priorities. The allocation of the water resource is carried out in three main steps: the diagnosis of the state of the available resource on the hydrographic system at the initial time step, including the forecast of its evolution over the management horizon; the determination of operations to be carried out on the hydraulic system to allocate the resource according to the constraints and objectives; the monitoring of the measured data in order to provide reconstructed indicators of the system’s state. The performances of the proposed approach are evaluated on various hydrographic systems, subjected to multiple hydrological regimes.

L'analyse des transferts hydriques inter-bassins massifs a fait l'objet de très peu de travaux en économie. Pourtant ce type d'intervention hydraulique est amené à prendre une place croissante dans la gestion de l'eau au 21ème siècle, dans les pays en développement et émergents notamment. Nous proposons une analyse du point de vue de l'économie écologique d'un projet de transfert hydrique dans le Nordeste du Brésil, en nous penchant particulièrement sur les conflits socio-environnementaux qui ont lieu autour de ce mégaprojet. Dans un premier temps, nous caractérisons le style de développement économique adopté par le Brésil au tournant du siècle ainsi que la dynamique des réformes de la gestion de l'eau. Nous tirons de cette analyse une présentation stylisée du complexe eau-économie nécessaire à la compréhension du projet étudié. Nous discutons ensuite les apports et limites des approches économiques (économie du bien-être, économie de la soutenabilité) de l'évaluation des grands projets hydrauliques. Nous mettons en exergue la spécificité des transferts inter-bassins massifs et proposons une grille d'analyse économique adaptée. Dans une troisième partie, nous approfondissons les conflits socio-environnementaux qui ont eu lieu autour du projet de transfert. Nous proposons une analyse en termes de justice environnementale ainsi qu'une modélisation de type institutionnaliste du conflit et de ses répercussions. / The analysis of massive inter-basin water transfers has been scarcely developed within the discipline of economics. Though, this kind of hydraulic engineering is bound to be ever more widepsread in the 21st century, in particular in developing and emerging economies. We propose an analysis of a water transfer project in Norhteastern Brazil from an ecological economic point of view. We especially investigate the socio-environmental conflicts that take place around this megaproject. In the first place, we characterise Brazil's current style of economic development at the turn of the century, as well as the dynamics of water sector reforms. From such an analysis, we draw a stylised presentation of the water-economy nexus which we deem necessary for the understanding of the project. We then discuss the scope and limits of economic approaches (welfare economics, sustainability economics) to the assessment of large scale water projects. We put an emphasis on the specific features of massive inter-basin water transfers and we propose a suitable economic framework. In a third part, we analyse the socio-environmental conflicts that took place in relation with the transfer project. We propose an environmental justice analysis as well as an institutionalist modeling of the conflict and its impacts.