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Tung Wai Lan, Iris. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1990. / Bibliography: leaves 92-101. / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS / ABSTRACT / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv / CHAPTER / Chapter I --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Background --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Significance of the Research --- p.3 / Chapter 1.3 --- Objectives of the Research --- p.5 / Chapter 1.4 --- Organization of the Research --- p.5 / Chapter II --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.7 / Chapter 2.1 --- Introduction --- p.7 / Chapter 2.2 --- Development of Long-Range Forecasting Technique --- p.8 / Chapter 2.3 --- Available Techniques of Long-Range Forecast --- p.9 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- Analogs and persistence --- p.10 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- Statistical modelling --- p.12 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- Atmosphere-ocean interaction --- p.17 / Chapter 2.3.4 --- Cycles and time series --- p.18 / Chapter 2.3.5 --- Numerical modelling --- p.19 / Chapter 2.4 --- Rainfall Prediction in Hong Kong --- p.21 / Chapter III --- RAINFALL OF HONG KONG --- p.24 / Chapter 3.1 --- Climatic Feature --- p.24 / Chapter 3.2 --- The Causes of Hong Kong Rainfall --- p.26 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Tropical cyclone --- p.26 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Trough or front --- p.28 / Chapter IV --- METHODOLOGY --- p.31 / Chapter 4.1 --- Introduction --- p.31 / Chapter 4.2 --- Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) Analysis --- p.32 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- What's EOF --- p.32 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Why use EOF --- p.34 / Chapter 4.3 --- Discriminant Analysis --- p.36 / Chapter 4.4 --- Data Base --- p.37 / Chapter 4.5 --- Computation Procedures --- p.40 / Chapter 4.6 --- Analysis of Forecast Capability --- p.44 / Chapter V --- THE RESULT AND ANALYSIS OF PREDICTION MODEL --- p.48 / Chapter 5.1 --- The result of EOF analysis --- p.48 / Chapter 5.1.1 --- Extraction of eigenvectors and eigenvalues --- p.48 / Chapter 5.1.2 --- Spatial and Temporal variation of eigenvector pattern --- p.52 / Chapter 5.2 --- Accuracy of the prediction model --- p.53 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Introduction --- p.53 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- The forecast accuracy from each month --- p.54 / Chapter 5.2.2.1 --- The forecast accuracy made by October --- p.54 / Chapter 5.2.2.2 --- The forecast accuracy made by November --- p.56 / Chapter 5.2.2.3 --- The forecast accuracy made by December --- p.58 / Chapter 5.2.2.4 --- The forecast accuracy made by January --- p.58 / Chapter 5.2.2.5 --- The forecast accuracy made by February --- p.61 / Chapter 5.2.2.6 --- The forecast accuracy made by March --- p.61 / Chapter 5.2.2.7 --- The forecast accuracy made by April --- p.64 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- Optimal length of dependent data --- p.64 / Chapter 5.2.4 --- Analysis the prediction results --- p.67 / Chapter 5.2.5 --- Comparison between the method used in this study with those methods adopted by ROHK --- p.69 / Chapter 5.2.5.1 --- Introduction --- p.69 / Chapter 5.2.5.2 --- Comparison of the forecast accuracy between two studies --- p.70 / Chapter VI --- CONCLUSION --- p.73 / Chapter 6.1 --- Summary of Findings --- p.73 / Chapter 6.2 --- Limitations of the Research --- p.75 / Chapter 6.3 --- Prospects of the Research --- p.76 / APPENDICES --- p.78 / LIST OF CITED REFERENCES --- p.92 / LIST OF READING MATERIALS --- p.97

Thesis (M.Sc. (Geography and Environmental Studies)) -- University of Limpopo, 2022 / The purpose of this study was to assess and document the use of the Indigenous Knowledge System (IKS) in weather and seasonal climate forecasting in Moletjie, Limpopo Province. The objectives of this study were to document the biological, meteorological, and astrological indicators used to forecast local weather and climate conditions. In addition, the study sought to determine the effectiveness of indicators used in forecasting local weather and climate conditions and to represent the spatial distribution of indigenous weather knowledge using a Participatory Geographic Information System (P-GIS). Both qualitative and quantitative research approaches were used. Surveys and in-depth interviews were used to obtain primary data. The secondary data collected from formally published material (books and journals), served to compliment the primary data. Purposive sampling was used to obtain data from participants with knowledge about Indigenous Knowledge (IK) in seasonal and weather forecasting. From the study, the distribution of indigenous indicators used by Moletjie smallholder farmers was mapped using ArcGIS 10.6. Results show different types of human, biological, meteorological, and astronomical indicators utilized by communities to forecast weather and climate as such they were captured, characterized, and documented. Smallholder farmers considered indigenous knowledge indicators to be more accurate and reliable in their forecasting than scientific projections, which were described as inaccurate and received late. The research found that plants and birds used in this case are in danger of extinction at an alarming rate because of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The study derives key insights from how smallholder farmers in Moletjie village use the IK weather forecast to make farming decisions to ensure farm productivity. It also demonstrates that the smallholder farmers share their trust in modern technology and have confidence and the readiness for the use of scientific forecasting and climate projections which are expected to add value when integrated with IK / National Research Foundation (NRF)

Thesis (MScEng (Civil Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / The climate of the world varies from one decade to another, and a changing climate is natural and expected. However there is a well-founded concern that the unprecedented human industrial development activities of the past two centuries (and mainly the last century) have caused changes over and above natural variation. Climate change is the natural cycle through which the earth and its atmosphere are going to accommodate the change in the amount of energy received from the sun. There are various indicators that can be monitored to measure and verify possible climatic changes. This thesis will firstly emphasize what the possible effects of climate change could be on amongst others, the coastal zone, biodiversity and water resources. If the impact of climate change on the above mentioned processes are monitored, and changing trends can be identified, these processes could in fact be seen as climate change indicators. This is of major importance to us, to be able to accurately identify whether climatic changes are experienced in any given area and to attempt to quantify it. Engineering hydrologists are, amongst other duties, responsible for the determination of peak discharges to be able to size conduits to safely convey the stormwater for given recurrence interval events. All hydrological predictions are indirectly or directly based on historical data. Empirical formulas and deterministic methods were developed and calibrated from known historical data. Statistical predictions are directly based on actual data. The question that arises is whether the historical data still provides an accurate basis from which possible future events can be predicted? This thesis strives to find an answer to this question and will also try to advise hydrologists on how they should interpret historical data in the future, taking climate change into consideration. The methodology that will be followed will be to compare the percentage of occurrence of 24-hour rainfall events of different magnitudes, for historical- as well as predicted rainfall, for five different rainfall stations in the Western Cape. A detailed analysis of measured data at a rainfall station, with 42 years of useable data, will also be performed, to verify whether any measurable trends have already been experienced. Conclusions shall be drawn as to possible trends, and recommendations will be made as to how hydrologists could allow for the possible changing rainfall patterns.

This thesis is aimed at extending the spherical barotropic contour-advective semi-Lagrangian (CASL) Algorithm, written in 1996 by David Dritschel and Maarten Ambaum, to more complex test cases within the shallow-water context. This is an integral part for development of any numerical model and the accuracy obtained depends on many factors, including knowledge of the initial state of the atmosphere or ocean, the numerical methods applied, and the resolutions used. The work undertaken throughout this thesis is highly varied and produces important steps towards creating a versatile suite of programs to model all types of flow, quickly and accurately. This, as will be explained in later chapters, impacts both public safety and the world economy, since much depends on accurate medium range forecasting. There shall be an investigation of a series of tests which demonstrate certain aspects of a dynamical system and its progression into more unstable situations - including the generation and feedback of freely propagating inertia-gravity waves (hereafter “gravity waves"), which transmit throughout the system. The implications for increasing forecast accuracy will be discussed. Within this thesis two main CASL algorithms are outlined and tested, with the accuracy of the results compared with previous results. In addition, other dynamical fields (besides geopotential height and potential vorticity) are analysed in order to assess how well the models deal with gravity waves. We shall see that such waves are sensitive to the presence, or not, of sharp potential vorticity gradients, as well as to numerical parameter settings. In particular, large time-steps (convenient for semi-Lagrangian schemes) may not only seriously affect gravity waves, but may also have an adverse impact on the primary fields of height and velocity. These problems are exacerbated by a poor resolution of potential vorticity gradients, which we shall attempt to improve.