Master of Science / Department of Plant Pathology / Erick D. DeWolf / Wheat blast, caused by Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype triticum, has emerged as a serious problem for wheat production in South America and recently emerged as a threat to wheat production in Bangladesh. To prepare for the possible introduction of wheat blast in to the United States, it would be helpful to identify areas of the country most at risk for blast epidemics. Because wheat blast occurs primarily in tropical and subtropical regions of the world, cold winter temperatures may restrict the establishment of the blast pathogen in the United States. Therefore, the first objective of this research was to quantify the freeze-thaw tolerance of the wheat blast pathogen in naturally infected wheat rachises from Bolivia and to measure the viability of the conidia after exposure to various treatments. The results indicate that exposing the fungus in moist residue to multiple freeze-thaw cycles is more damaging than exposing the fungus in moist residue to longer, single freezes. When in dry residue, the fungus was not harmed by the freeze-thaw cycles. Freezing and thawing of the wheat blast fungus in moist residue significantly affected its ability to produce viable conidia. The second objective of this research was to identify environmental conditions that could be conducive for wheat blast epidemics by examining historical epidemics of rice blast, caused by Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype oryza. The dataset used in this analysis consisted of 60 site-years of historical observations of rice blast levels from Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas. These observations were coupled with monthly and weekly summaries of hourly weather variables based on temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and regional moisture indices. Classification trees and logistic regression were used to identify variables associated with rice blast epidemics. The results indicate that rice blast epidemics are favored by cooler April temperatures and higher levels of precipitation in June. Preliminary models for rice blast based on these variables were able to correctly classify epidemic years with >75% accuracy. In the future, the results of this project will be used as part of a risk assessment for a wheat blast introduction and establishment in the United States.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Plant Pathology / William W. Bockus / James P. Stack / Wheat blast, caused by the Triticum pathotype of Magnaporthe oryzae (MoT), is a serious disease of wheat causing yield failures and significant economic losses during epidemic years in Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia. Although outbreaks occur only sporadically, wheat blast is considered a major disease affecting wheat production in South America and may be a threat to the wheat crop in the United States. Wheat is a major crop in the U.S. and wheat exports from the U.S. are important to food security of several countries around the World. Thus, it is important to understand the potential for MoT entry and establishment into the U.S. and to test U.S. wheat cultivars for susceptibility to MoT. The hypotheses of this research project were a) importing wheat grain from Brazil does not pose a risk for MoT establishment in the U.S., and b) resistance to MoT head infection does not exist in U.S. hard red winter wheat elite cultivars. Quantitative pathway analysis models were used to estimate the risk of MoT entry and establishment, in the coterminous U.S. and in a more targeted area within southeast North Carolina, via the importation of wheat grain from Brazil. The pathway model predicted that significant risk for MoT entry and establishment exists in some areas of the U.S. However, in approximately 60% of the coterminous U.S. winter wheat production areas the risk of MoT establishment was estimated to be zero. With respect to winter wheat growing areas in the U.S., conditions for MoT establishment and wheat blast outbreak occur only in small, restricted geographic areas. A higher resolution pathway analysis based on a ground transportation corridor in North Carolina indicated that conditions for MoT establishment exist seven out of ten years. Among U.S. cultivars tested, a continuum in severity to head blast was observed; cultivars Everest and Karl 92 were highly susceptible with more than 90% disease severity, while cultivars PostRock, Jackpot, Overley, Jagalene, Jagger, and Santa Fe showed less than 3% infection.

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