A lifetime prediction scheme is proposed based on the assumption that the lifetime (time to failure) of rocks under load is governed by the growth of microstructual defects (microcracks). The numerical approach is based on linear elastic fracture mechanics. The numerical calculation scheme is implemented as a cellular automat, where each cell contains a microcrack with length and orientation following certain distributions. The propagation of the microcrack is controlled by the Charles equation, based on subcritical crack growth. The zone inside the numerical model fails if the microcrack has reached the zone dimension or the stress intensity factor of the crack reached the fracture toughness. Macroscopic fractures are formed by these coalesced propagating microcracks, and finally lead to failure of the model. In the numerical approaches, elasto-plastic stress redistributions take place during the forming of the macroscopic fractures. Distinct microcrack propagation types have been programmed and applied to the proposed numerical models. These numerical models are studied under different loading conditions. Numerical results with excellent agreement with the analytical solutions are obtained with respective to predicted lifetime, important parameters for the microcracks, fracture pattern and damage evolution. Potential applications of the proposed numerical model schemes are investigated in some preliminary studies and simulation results are discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn and possible improvements to the numerical approaches and extensions of the research work are given. / 本文认为微结构缺陷（微裂纹）的扩展决定了受力岩石的寿命（破坏时间）。基于此假设，提出了岩石寿命预测方法。利用线弹性断裂力学理论，通过FLAC进行了数值模拟。数值模型中每个单元定义一条初始裂纹，其长度与方向服从特定分布。基于亚临界裂纹扩展理论，由Charles方程决定微裂纹的扩展（速度）。如微裂纹发展至单元边界，或应力强度系数到达断裂韧度，则单元破坏。宏观裂纹由微裂纹所联合形成，并最终贯穿模型导致破坏。在形成宏观裂纹的过程中，发生弹塑性应力重分布。在数值模型中，编制了不同类型的微裂纹扩展方式，并在不同的受力条件下加以分析。数值模型的岩石寿命，裂纹形状，破坏方式以及一些重要的参数的数值模拟结果与解析解有较好的一致性。对本文所提出的数值模型的初步实际应用进行了分析，并讨论了计算结果。最后讨论了本文所提出的岩石寿命预测方法的可能改良与发展，并对进一步的研究工作给出建议。

A lifetime prediction scheme is proposed based on the assumption that the lifetime (time to failure) of rocks under load is governed by the growth of microstructual defects (microcracks). The numerical approach is based on linear elastic fracture mechanics. The numerical calculation scheme is implemented as a cellular automat, where each cell contains a microcrack with length and orientation following certain distributions. The propagation of the microcrack is controlled by the Charles equation, based on subcritical crack growth. The zone inside the numerical model fails if the microcrack has reached the zone dimension or the stress intensity factor of the crack reached the fracture toughness. Macroscopic fractures are formed by these coalesced propagating microcracks, and finally lead to failure of the model. In the numerical approaches, elasto-plastic stress redistributions take place during the forming of the macroscopic fractures. Distinct microcrack propagation types have been programmed and applied to the proposed numerical models. These numerical models are studied under different loading conditions. Numerical results with excellent agreement with the analytical solutions are obtained with respective to predicted lifetime, important parameters for the microcracks, fracture pattern and damage evolution. Potential applications of the proposed numerical model schemes are investigated in some preliminary studies and simulation results are discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn and possible improvements to the numerical approaches and extensions of the research work are given. / 本文认为微结构缺陷（微裂纹）的扩展决定了受力岩石的寿命（破坏时间）。基于此假设，提出了岩石寿命预测方法。利用线弹性断裂力学理论，通过FLAC进行了数值模拟。数值模型中每个单元定义一条初始裂纹，其长度与方向服从特定分布。基于亚临界裂纹扩展理论，由Charles方程决定微裂纹的扩展（速度）。如微裂纹发展至单元边界，或应力强度系数到达断裂韧度，则单元破坏。宏观裂纹由微裂纹所联合形成，并最终贯穿模型导致破坏。在形成宏观裂纹的过程中，发生弹塑性应力重分布。在数值模型中，编制了不同类型的微裂纹扩展方式，并在不同的受力条件下加以分析。数值模型的岩石寿命，裂纹形状，破坏方式以及一些重要的参数的数值模拟结果与解析解有较好的一致性。对本文所提出的数值模型的初步实际应用进行了分析，并讨论了计算结果。最后讨论了本文所提出的岩石寿命预测方法的可能改良与发展，并对进一步的研究工作给出建议。