本研究採用FTAP模型配合GTAP第6版資料庫，模擬分析兩岸組成自由貿易區對雙方總體經濟與各部門長期變動的影響。本文除了考慮商品部門和服務業貿易自由化以外，同時也加入兩岸直航和撤除台灣對大陸進口限制的討論。實證結果顯示，兩岸建立自由貿易協定對台灣有益。兩岸自由貿易區同時帶來台灣與大陸在進出口貿易量和國內生產毛額的提高。在社會福利方面，台灣社會福利每年增加74億美元，大陸則是每年減少24億美元。造成大陸利得下降的主要原因是其製造業部門的貿易條件惡化。就產業的長期影響來看，兩岸自由貿易區可使台灣和大陸淨出口金額上升，分別增加251.76億美元與292.92億美元，其中以台灣紡織業和化工產品的淨輸出為最高。農業貿易自由化和取消進口限制，導致台灣農產品在產出和淨出口金額上多半低於大陸。開放服務業市場以及直航帶來的大陸運輸量提高，顯示推動兩岸自由貿易區服務業廠商傾向於提高對大陸投資並減少在台灣的投資。 / This paper adopts the FTAP model, a computable general equilibrium model, to analyze the long run economic effects of a cross-strait FTA on Taiwan and China. In addition to the liberalization of trade in goods and services, the direct cross-strait transportation and removing restrictions on imports from China are also discussed in this study. The simulation results reveal that the FTA of Taiwan and China might resilt in significant influences on both Taiwan and China. First, Taiwan and China have significant increases in their total volume of trade and GDP. Second, the social welfare of Taiwan increases $US74.64 billion, but the social welfare of China decreases $US24.42 billion because its TOT of manufacturing sector is worse off. In addition, the FTA makes the net export of Taiwan and China increase $US251.76 billion and $US292.92 billion, respectively. The manufacturing industries of Taiwan and China have the greatest increases in their net export, patticularly the textile and chemical products of Taiwan. Because of the liberalization in agriculture trade and removing restrictions on imports from China, the increase in agriculture output and net export of Taiwan is lower than those of China. Finally, the empirical results indicate that the liberalization of services trade and the direct cross-strait transportation attract services industries to raise their investment into China and decrease the investment in Taiwan.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0094351027 |
| Creators | 蔡欣茹 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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