Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der modellunabhängigen Bewertung von Optionen. In einem ersten Ansatz wird eine modellunabhängige Version des fundamentalen Theorems der Optionspreistheorie aufgestellt. Eine Folgerung ist das Superreplikation Theorem, welches eine obere Preisschranke einer Option durch superreplizieren einer semistatischen Strategie liefert. Zur Vorbereitung des zweiten Ansatzes wird eine Einführung in den optimalen Transport gegeben, speziell wird das Dualitätstheorem aufgestellt. Dieser Ansatz beschreibt eine obere Preisschranke, in dem das Dualitätstheorem als Superreplikation Resultat interpretiert wird. Auch hier wird die Option durch eine semistatische Strategie repliziert. / This thesis considers model-independent option pricing. The first approach establishes a model-independent version of the Fundamental Theorem Of Asset Pricing. A corollary is the Superreplication Theorem, which provides an upper bound of a price of an option in superreplicating a semi-static strategy. In preparation of the second approach an introduction in Optimal Transport is discussed. In particular, the Duality Theorem is given. This approach characterizes an upper bound of the price in interpreting it as a Superreplication Result. The option is replicated by an semi-static strategy as well.

本研究採用FTAP模型配合GTAP第6版資料庫，模擬分析兩岸組成自由貿易區對雙方總體經濟與各部門長期變動的影響。本文除了考慮商品部門和服務業貿易自由化以外，同時也加入兩岸直航和撤除台灣對大陸進口限制的討論。實證結果顯示，兩岸建立自由貿易協定對台灣有益。兩岸自由貿易區同時帶來台灣與大陸在進出口貿易量和國內生產毛額的提高。在社會福利方面，台灣社會福利每年增加74億美元，大陸則是每年減少24億美元。造成大陸利得下降的主要原因是其製造業部門的貿易條件惡化。就產業的長期影響來看，兩岸自由貿易區可使台灣和大陸淨出口金額上升，分別增加251.76億美元與292.92億美元，其中以台灣紡織業和化工產品的淨輸出為最高。農業貿易自由化和取消進口限制，導致台灣農產品在產出和淨出口金額上多半低於大陸。開放服務業市場以及直航帶來的大陸運輸量提高，顯示推動兩岸自由貿易區服務業廠商傾向於提高對大陸投資並減少在台灣的投資。 / This paper adopts the FTAP model, a computable general equilibrium model, to analyze the long run economic effects of a cross-strait FTA on Taiwan and China. In addition to the liberalization of trade in goods and services, the direct cross-strait transportation and removing restrictions on imports from China are also discussed in this study. The simulation results reveal that the FTA of Taiwan and China might resilt in significant influences on both Taiwan and China. First, Taiwan and China have significant increases in their total volume of trade and GDP. Second, the social welfare of Taiwan increases $US74.64 billion, but the social welfare of China decreases $US24.42 billion because its TOT of manufacturing sector is worse off. In addition, the FTA makes the net export of Taiwan and China increase $US251.76 billion and $US292.92 billion, respectively. The manufacturing industries of Taiwan and China have the greatest increases in their net export, patticularly the textile and chemical products of Taiwan. Because of the liberalization in agriculture trade and removing restrictions on imports from China, the increase in agriculture output and net export of Taiwan is lower than those of China. Finally, the empirical results indicate that the liberalization of services trade and the direct cross-strait transportation attract services industries to raise their investment into China and decrease the investment in Taiwan.

由於WTO杜哈回合談判正在積極進行，而且東亞各國整合的程度、涵括的領域、融入的國家均有愈來愈深、愈來愈廣的趨勢，相信此兩股貿易自由化風潮對我國商品的競爭力、投資與經貿活動均會產生一定的影響，因此有必要於此進行深入研究。故本研究利用FTAP模型模擬分析(1)東協加三FTA，(2) 杜哈回合談判，以及(3) 東協加三FTA+杜哈回合談判之經濟效果，以便了解上述三個情境對台灣的影響。 本研究實證結果顯示：(1) 東協加三FTA將使台灣的整體福利減少1252.26百萬美元；對總體經濟方面的影響，台灣實質GDP減少0.25%，並使貿易條件惡化0.86%。(2) 杜哈回合談判若順利完成，台灣整體福利將增加4875.09百萬美元。總體經濟方面，台灣實質GDP將成長1.01%，貿易條件將改善1.16%。(3) 在東協加三FTA簽定且杜哈回合談判順利完成下，台灣整體福利增加4211.92百萬美元；總體經濟方面，將使台灣的實質GDP增加0.88%，貿易條件改善0.73%。 另外，本研究發現：(1) 區域貿易協定與多邊貿易協定間，彼此對於福利與產出等效果，會有互相抵消的情況發生。多邊貿易協定的簽定會大幅的削弱區域貿易協定所產生的效果。然而，區域貿易協定卻僅能抵消掉小部分多邊貿易協定所產生的效果。(2) 區域間自由貿易協定的簽定，不但會使區域外的國家遭受福利與產出等總體經濟的損失，並且也會抵消掉多邊貿易協定所產生的各項效果。(3) 若是能儘快完成杜哈回合談判，各國家儘快完成多邊貿易協定，則各個國家對於簽署區域或是雙邊自由貿易協定的意願可能會大大的減低。 / In recent years, WTO has been undertaking Doha Round negotiation. In addition, there is a deepening and widening trend on the integration of South East Asia economies. There two meovements of global trade liberalization might considerably impact investment and international trade activities of Taiwan as well as its international competitiveness. Therefore, investigating the integration of South East Asia regional economy should be reckoned as important. In this light, this thesis, based on the FTAP model, conducts simulation analyses to testify how (1) a free trade agreement among ASEAN plus three nations, (2) the accomplishment of Doha Round and (3) a free trade agreement among ASEAN plus three nations and the accomplishment of Doha Round will influence the economy of Taiwan. The empirical results have shown: (1) ASEAN+3 FTA will decrease Taiwanese welfare by $1,252.26 million dollars. It will also deteriorate the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 0.25% and 0.86%. (2) The accomplishment of Doha Round will increase Taiwanese welfare by $4,875.09 million dollars. Additionally, it will improve the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 1.01% and 1.16%. (3) ASEAN+3 FTA and the accomplishment of Doha Round together will generate additional $4,211.92 million dollars welfare to Taiwan, and improve the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 0.88% and 0.73%, respectively. Moreover, this thesis has found several interesting policy implications. First, the effects of a regional trade agreement and a multilateral trade agreement on welfare and outputs will offset each other. The effect of a multilateral trade agreement is generally greater than the effect of a regional trade agreement. Second, free trade agreements of different regions not only harm the welfare and outputs of countries outside these regions but also offset the benefits provided by the multilateral trade agreement. Finally, considering it may decrease the willingness to develop regional or bilateral free trade agreements, governments should treat the accomplishment of the multilateral trade agreement, such as Doha Round, as the top priority.