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ASEAN AT THE THIRD TRANSITION: GROPING FOR A NEW REGIONALISM IN EAST ASIASUDO, Sueo, 須藤, 季夫 03 1900 (has links)
No description available.
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Integração regional no leste asiático: ASEAN, ASEAN+3 e a disputa pela liderança regional / East asian regional integration: ASEAN, ASEAN + 3 and the dispute for regional leadershipLeticia Cordeiro Simões 30 March 2012 (has links)
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / A presente dissertação tem como objetivo analisar as relações internacionais no Leste Asiático tendo como foco principal a pesquisa do fenômeno da integração regional e da disputa pela liderança na região através dos mecanismos de integração, por suas principais potências locais, China e Japão. A Associação dos Países do Sudeste Asiático (ASEAN) e seu desdobramento estrutural, a ASEAN+3 que inclui os dez países membros da associação além dos três países mais influentes do Nordeste Asiático, China, Japão e Coréia do Sul, são o objeto da pesquisa, uma vez que por serem os principais mecanismos de integração da região, estão mais sujeitos a vivenciar a concorrência chinesa e japonesa pelo papel de principal ator e líder regional. A crescente importância dos mecanismos de integração do Leste Asiático decorrente da maior integração que vem adquirindo, uma integração com particularidades únicas e bem distintas da União Europeia, traz o aumento da representatividade da região no mundo e de seus países membros dentro da região. Este tipo de destaque adquirido por este padrão de arcabouço regional, que proporciona crescimento das trocas comerciais na região e de seu desenvolvimento, passou a atrair as potências regionais por se constituir em um importante e interessante instrumento de política regional. Os Estados japonês e chinês possuem problemas históricos de longa data, o que traz maior desconfiança e instabilidade para a região, e aumenta a competição entre os dois atores por maior influência nos grupos de integração regional, acreditando ser possível através desta manobra alcançar a liderança regional. Deste modo, o que esta dissertação pretende mostrar é: a forma como japoneses e chineses se utilizam dos mecanismos de integração regional com a ASEAN e a ASEAN+3 em evidência para perpetuar sua política na região como forma de alcançar o poder; apresentar quais os objetivos, benefícios e interesses em se tornar o líder regional; e apontar qual país tem maior potencial em se tornar líder e através de que tipo de liderança. / This dissertation aims to analyze the international relations in East Asia with a focus on research into the phenomenon of regional integration and the competition for leadership in the region through the mechanisms of integration by their local major powers, China and Japan. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its deployment structure, ASEAN +3, comprising the ten member countries of the association beyond the three most influential countries in Northeast Asia, China, Japan and South Korea, are the object of research, since that being the main mechanisms of integration of the region, are more likely to experience Chinese and Japanese competition for the role of main actor and regional leader. The growing importance of the mechanisms of integration in East Asia due to the increased integration that it has been acquiring, a different kind of integration when compared to European Union, brings greater representation for the region in the world and for its member countries within the region. This type of prominence acquired by the pattern of regional framework, which provides trade growth in the region and its development, began to attract the regional powers, once they constitute an interesting and important instrument of regional policy. The Japanese and Chinese States have long-standing historical problems, which brings higher distrust and instability in the region, increasing the competition between the two actors for greater influence in regional integration groups, believing to be possible through this maneuver to achieve regional leadership. Thus, what this dissertation aims to show is: how Japan and China use the mechanisms of regional integration - with ASEAN and ASEAN +3 in evidence - to perpetuate its policy in the region as a means of attaining power, which are the objectives, benefits and interests to become the regional leader, and to suggest which country has the greatest potential to become a leader and through what kind of leadership.
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Integração regional no leste asiático: ASEAN, ASEAN+3 e a disputa pela liderança regional / East asian regional integration: ASEAN, ASEAN + 3 and the dispute for regional leadershipLeticia Cordeiro Simões 30 March 2012 (has links)
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / A presente dissertação tem como objetivo analisar as relações internacionais no Leste Asiático tendo como foco principal a pesquisa do fenômeno da integração regional e da disputa pela liderança na região através dos mecanismos de integração, por suas principais potências locais, China e Japão. A Associação dos Países do Sudeste Asiático (ASEAN) e seu desdobramento estrutural, a ASEAN+3 que inclui os dez países membros da associação além dos três países mais influentes do Nordeste Asiático, China, Japão e Coréia do Sul, são o objeto da pesquisa, uma vez que por serem os principais mecanismos de integração da região, estão mais sujeitos a vivenciar a concorrência chinesa e japonesa pelo papel de principal ator e líder regional. A crescente importância dos mecanismos de integração do Leste Asiático decorrente da maior integração que vem adquirindo, uma integração com particularidades únicas e bem distintas da União Europeia, traz o aumento da representatividade da região no mundo e de seus países membros dentro da região. Este tipo de destaque adquirido por este padrão de arcabouço regional, que proporciona crescimento das trocas comerciais na região e de seu desenvolvimento, passou a atrair as potências regionais por se constituir em um importante e interessante instrumento de política regional. Os Estados japonês e chinês possuem problemas históricos de longa data, o que traz maior desconfiança e instabilidade para a região, e aumenta a competição entre os dois atores por maior influência nos grupos de integração regional, acreditando ser possível através desta manobra alcançar a liderança regional. Deste modo, o que esta dissertação pretende mostrar é: a forma como japoneses e chineses se utilizam dos mecanismos de integração regional com a ASEAN e a ASEAN+3 em evidência para perpetuar sua política na região como forma de alcançar o poder; apresentar quais os objetivos, benefícios e interesses em se tornar o líder regional; e apontar qual país tem maior potencial em se tornar líder e através de que tipo de liderança. / This dissertation aims to analyze the international relations in East Asia with a focus on research into the phenomenon of regional integration and the competition for leadership in the region through the mechanisms of integration by their local major powers, China and Japan. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its deployment structure, ASEAN +3, comprising the ten member countries of the association beyond the three most influential countries in Northeast Asia, China, Japan and South Korea, are the object of research, since that being the main mechanisms of integration of the region, are more likely to experience Chinese and Japanese competition for the role of main actor and regional leader. The growing importance of the mechanisms of integration in East Asia due to the increased integration that it has been acquiring, a different kind of integration when compared to European Union, brings greater representation for the region in the world and for its member countries within the region. This type of prominence acquired by the pattern of regional framework, which provides trade growth in the region and its development, began to attract the regional powers, once they constitute an interesting and important instrument of regional policy. The Japanese and Chinese States have long-standing historical problems, which brings higher distrust and instability in the region, increasing the competition between the two actors for greater influence in regional integration groups, believing to be possible through this maneuver to achieve regional leadership. Thus, what this dissertation aims to show is: how Japan and China use the mechanisms of regional integration - with ASEAN and ASEAN +3 in evidence - to perpetuate its policy in the region as a means of attaining power, which are the objectives, benefits and interests to become the regional leader, and to suggest which country has the greatest potential to become a leader and through what kind of leadership.
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Diversifying in the Integrated Markets of ASEAN+3 : A Quantitative Study of Stock Market CorrelationStark, Caroline, Nordell, Emelie January 2010 (has links)
<p>There is evidence that globalization, economic assimilation and integration among countries and their financial markets have increased correlation among stock markets and the correlation may in turn impact investors’ allocation of their assets and economic policies. We have conducted a quantitative study with daily stock index quotes for the period January 2000 and December 2009 in order to measure the eventual correlation between the markets of ASEAN+3. This economic integration consists of; Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, China, Japan and South Korea. Our problem formulation is:Are the stock markets of ASEAN+3 correlated?Does the eventual correlation change under turbulent market conditions?In terms of the eventual correlation, discuss: is it possible to diversify an investment portfolio within this area?The purpose of the study is to conduct a research that will provide investors with information about stock market correlation within the chosen market. We have conducted the study with a positivistic view and a deductive approach with some theories as our starting point. The main theories discussed are; market efficiency, risk and return, Modern Portfolio Theory, correlation and international investments. By using the financial datatbase, DataStream, we have been able to collect the necessary data for our study. The data has been processed in the statistical program SPSS by using Pearson correlation.From the empirical findings and our analysis we were able to draw some main conclusions about our study. We found that most of the ASEAN+3 countries were strongly correlated with each other. Japan showed lower correlation with all of the other countries. Based on this we concluded that economic integration seems to increase correlation between stock markets. When looking at the economic downturn in 2007-2009, we found that the correlation between ASEAN+3 became stronger and positive for all of the countries. The results also showed that the correlation varies over time. We concluded that it is, to a small extent, possible to diversify an investment portfolio across these markets.</p>
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Diversifying in the Integrated Markets of ASEAN+3 : A Quantitative Study of Stock Market CorrelationStark, Caroline, Nordell, Emelie January 2010 (has links)
There is evidence that globalization, economic assimilation and integration among countries and their financial markets have increased correlation among stock markets and the correlation may in turn impact investors’ allocation of their assets and economic policies. We have conducted a quantitative study with daily stock index quotes for the period January 2000 and December 2009 in order to measure the eventual correlation between the markets of ASEAN+3. This economic integration consists of; Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, China, Japan and South Korea. Our problem formulation is:Are the stock markets of ASEAN+3 correlated?Does the eventual correlation change under turbulent market conditions?In terms of the eventual correlation, discuss: is it possible to diversify an investment portfolio within this area?The purpose of the study is to conduct a research that will provide investors with information about stock market correlation within the chosen market. We have conducted the study with a positivistic view and a deductive approach with some theories as our starting point. The main theories discussed are; market efficiency, risk and return, Modern Portfolio Theory, correlation and international investments. By using the financial datatbase, DataStream, we have been able to collect the necessary data for our study. The data has been processed in the statistical program SPSS by using Pearson correlation.From the empirical findings and our analysis we were able to draw some main conclusions about our study. We found that most of the ASEAN+3 countries were strongly correlated with each other. Japan showed lower correlation with all of the other countries. Based on this we concluded that economic integration seems to increase correlation between stock markets. When looking at the economic downturn in 2007-2009, we found that the correlation between ASEAN+3 became stronger and positive for all of the countries. The results also showed that the correlation varies over time. We concluded that it is, to a small extent, possible to diversify an investment portfolio across these markets.
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A iniciativa de Chiang Mai: alcances e limitações / The Chiang Mai initiative: reaches and limitationsScarano, Paulo Rogério 03 June 2011 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T20:20:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
Paulo Rogerio Scarano.pdf: 2048190 bytes, checksum: 33a0f06df2db79357f59f0dbab92aed9 (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2011-06-03 / The purpose of this work is to analyze the possibilities and limitations of the regional
financial arrangement called Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI); a agreement among the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Japan, China and South Korea (ASEAN+3),
whose aim is to supply temporary funds to any of its members in need, to face an
international context of high volatility of capital flows in which the lacking of proper
mechanisms to provide liquidity could result in crises that could go beyond the
boundaries of a particular nation. This interdisciplinary study, which shares topics with
the areas of International Relations and International Political Economy, is
fundamental to understand the scope and the difficulties involving regional financial
agreements among different countries that frequently compete with each other and
have a history of rivalry and territorial disputes. So the initial hypothesis about the
reaches and limitations of Chiang Mai Initiative is that they are a result of the financial
and economical interdependence, associated with the political differences between
the countries of the ASEAN+3. This work starts with a short review on the International
Monetary and Financial System and its institutions, particularly the role of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), since the Bretton Woods agreements until the
current international financial architecture. It follows a discussion about how this
architecture may be associated with the Asiatic Crises of 1997-98, basing the analysis
on the vulnerability indicators of the countries affected by the crises and the actions
taken by the IMF. The discontentment concerning the procedures of the international
financial institutions favored the conditions necessary for the progress of the CMI.
Such progress will be approached based on the analysis of the documentation
produced at the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers Meeting and the associated literature.
After discussed the CMI institutional characteristics, this work explores the degree of
economic integration between the countries of the region, using the data available by
the local governments and the international organizations like the IMF, the World Bank
and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). It is also
shown in this work that if in on hand the regional interdependence justifies a regional
financial arrangement like the CMI, on the other hand the absence of a clear regional
hegemony, the regional rivalries and a significant territorial disputes caused difficulties
to establish a regional cooperation environment. The large accumulation of
international reserves as a self protection mechanism among the East Asian nations
illustrates their suspicious regarding a regional collective solution / O objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar as possibilidades e as limitações do arranjo
financeiro regional denominado Iniciativa de Chiang Mai (CMI), acordado entre os
países da Associação das Nações do Sudeste Asiático, o Japão, a China e a Coréia
(ASEAN+3). Trata-se de uma iniciativa regional para fazer frente às necessidades
temporárias de divisas que um país-membro possa enfrentar, em um cenário
internacional de grande volatilidade no fluxo de capitais, em que a ausência de
mecanismos adequados e tempestivos de provisão de liquidez pode resultar em uma
crise com poder para ultrapassar as fronteiras da nação inicialmente atingida. O estudo
do tema, de caráter interdisciplinar entre as áreas de Relações Internacionais e da
Economia Política Internacional, é fundamental para que se possam compreender os
alcances e as dificuldades que envolvem um acordo para fornecimento de divisas entre
países muito diferentes, que frequentemente competem entre si, e que possuem um
histórico de rivalidades e disputas territoriais. Assim, parte-se da hipótese de que os
alcances e as limitações da CMI são dados pela interdependência econômicofinanceira
e pelas diferenças políticas entre os países associados à ASEAN+3. Para
realizar o presente trabalho, parte-se de uma breve revisão da literatura sobre o
Sistema Monetário e Financeiro Internacional e suas instituições, com ênfase no papel
do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI), dos acordos de Bretton Woods até a atual
configuração da arquitetura financeira internacional. Em seguida, o trabalho discute
como tal arquitetura pode ser associada à natureza da Crise Asiática de 1997-98,
analisando os indicadores de vulnerabilidade dos países afetados e a atuação do FMI.
Mostra, assim, que o descontentamento com o encaminhamento dado pela
institucionalidade financeira internacional criou o ambiente necessário para o avanço
da CMI. Tal avanço será retratado a partir da análise da documentação produzida nas
Reuniões dos Ministros das Finanças da ASEAN+3 e da literatura subsequente. Exposta
a institucionalidade da CMI, o trabalho parte para uma análise exploratória do grau de
integração econômica entre os países da região, a partir de dados disponibilizados
pelos governos locais e por organizações internacionais como o FMI, o Banco Mundial
e a Conferência das Nações Unidas para o Comércio e o Desenvolvimento (UNCTAD). O
trabalho mostra que, se por um lado o grau de interdependência regional justifica um
arranjo financeiro regional como a CMI, e sua institucionalização é evidência disso, por
outro lado, a inexistência de uma clara hegemonia na região, as rivalidades entre os
países e a existência de disputas territoriais importantes criam dificuldades para a
cooperação regional. O elevado acúmulo de reservas internacionais, como mecanismo
individual de autoproteção generalizado entre os países do Leste Asiático, ilustra sua
desconfiança em uma solução coletiva regional
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A iniciativa de Chiang Mai: alcances e limitações / The Chiang Mai initiative: reaches and limitationsScarano, Paulo Rogério 03 June 2011 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T14:53:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
Paulo Rogerio Scarano.pdf: 2048190 bytes, checksum: 33a0f06df2db79357f59f0dbab92aed9 (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2011-06-03 / The purpose of this work is to analyze the possibilities and limitations of the regional
financial arrangement called Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI); a agreement among the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Japan, China and South Korea (ASEAN+3),
whose aim is to supply temporary funds to any of its members in need, to face an
international context of high volatility of capital flows in which the lacking of proper
mechanisms to provide liquidity could result in crises that could go beyond the
boundaries of a particular nation. This interdisciplinary study, which shares topics with
the areas of International Relations and International Political Economy, is
fundamental to understand the scope and the difficulties involving regional financial
agreements among different countries that frequently compete with each other and
have a history of rivalry and territorial disputes. So the initial hypothesis about the
reaches and limitations of Chiang Mai Initiative is that they are a result of the financial
and economical interdependence, associated with the political differences between
the countries of the ASEAN+3. This work starts with a short review on the International
Monetary and Financial System and its institutions, particularly the role of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), since the Bretton Woods agreements until the
current international financial architecture. It follows a discussion about how this
architecture may be associated with the Asiatic Crises of 1997-98, basing the analysis
on the vulnerability indicators of the countries affected by the crises and the actions
taken by the IMF. The discontentment concerning the procedures of the international
financial institutions favored the conditions necessary for the progress of the CMI.
Such progress will be approached based on the analysis of the documentation
produced at the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers Meeting and the associated literature.
After discussed the CMI institutional characteristics, this work explores the degree of
economic integration between the countries of the region, using the data available by
the local governments and the international organizations like the IMF, the World Bank
and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). It is also
shown in this work that if in on hand the regional interdependence justifies a regional
financial arrangement like the CMI, on the other hand the absence of a clear regional
hegemony, the regional rivalries and a significant territorial disputes caused difficulties
to establish a regional cooperation environment. The large accumulation of
international reserves as a self protection mechanism among the East Asian nations
illustrates their suspicious regarding a regional collective solution / O objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar as possibilidades e as limitações do arranjo
financeiro regional denominado Iniciativa de Chiang Mai (CMI), acordado entre os
países da Associação das Nações do Sudeste Asiático, o Japão, a China e a Coréia
(ASEAN+3). Trata-se de uma iniciativa regional para fazer frente às necessidades
temporárias de divisas que um país-membro possa enfrentar, em um cenário
internacional de grande volatilidade no fluxo de capitais, em que a ausência de
mecanismos adequados e tempestivos de provisão de liquidez pode resultar em uma
crise com poder para ultrapassar as fronteiras da nação inicialmente atingida. O estudo
do tema, de caráter interdisciplinar entre as áreas de Relações Internacionais e da
Economia Política Internacional, é fundamental para que se possam compreender os
alcances e as dificuldades que envolvem um acordo para fornecimento de divisas entre
países muito diferentes, que frequentemente competem entre si, e que possuem um
histórico de rivalidades e disputas territoriais. Assim, parte-se da hipótese de que os
alcances e as limitações da CMI são dados pela interdependência econômicofinanceira
e pelas diferenças políticas entre os países associados à ASEAN+3. Para
realizar o presente trabalho, parte-se de uma breve revisão da literatura sobre o
Sistema Monetário e Financeiro Internacional e suas instituições, com ênfase no papel
do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI), dos acordos de Bretton Woods até a atual
configuração da arquitetura financeira internacional. Em seguida, o trabalho discute
como tal arquitetura pode ser associada à natureza da Crise Asiática de 1997-98,
analisando os indicadores de vulnerabilidade dos países afetados e a atuação do FMI.
Mostra, assim, que o descontentamento com o encaminhamento dado pela
institucionalidade financeira internacional criou o ambiente necessário para o avanço
da CMI. Tal avanço será retratado a partir da análise da documentação produzida nas
Reuniões dos Ministros das Finanças da ASEAN+3 e da literatura subsequente. Exposta
a institucionalidade da CMI, o trabalho parte para uma análise exploratória do grau de
integração econômica entre os países da região, a partir de dados disponibilizados
pelos governos locais e por organizações internacionais como o FMI, o Banco Mundial
e a Conferência das Nações Unidas para o Comércio e o Desenvolvimento (UNCTAD). O
trabalho mostra que, se por um lado o grau de interdependência regional justifica um
arranjo financeiro regional como a CMI, e sua institucionalização é evidência disso, por
outro lado, a inexistência de uma clara hegemonia na região, as rivalidades entre os
países e a existência de disputas territoriais importantes criam dificuldades para a
cooperação regional. O elevado acúmulo de reservas internacionais, como mecanismo
individual de autoproteção generalizado entre os países do Leste Asiático, ilustra sua
desconfiança em uma solução coletiva regional
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L'Intégration Economique Régionale de l'ASEAN+3. La crise de 1997 à l'origine d'un régime régionalGuilhot, Laëtitia 28 November 2008 (has links) (PDF)
Ce travail a pour objectif d'analyser la réalité institutionnelle et économique de l'ASEAN+3, afin de qualifier le processus régional en cours et de déterminer s'il peut être considéré comme le regroupement référent de l'intégration régionale en Asie Orientale sur la période 1997-2007. La démarche adoptée est celle de la "complémentarité" entre les concepts de l'Economie Politique Internationale et les outils statistiques et économétriques de l'Economie Internationale. La crise asiatique est, dès lors, interprétée comme le révélateur d'un besoin de production d'un bien public régional : la stabilité monétaire et financière. La faillite du système international à satisfaire ce besoin pousse les pays de l'ASEAN+3 à en organiser la production sur une base régionale et sous la forme d'un régime régional. Se pose alors immanquablement la question de la distribution du pouvoir au sein de ce régime. Le concept de leader ainsi que les critères d'évaluation de ce statut montrent que ce régime repose sur un leadership bicéphale constitué de la Chine et du Japon. Les outils statistiques et économétriques de l'Economie Internationale (part du commerce intra-régional, indices d'intensité relative, taux de croissance et modèle de gravité) mettent en évidence la validité analytique de l'ASEAN+3 comme périmètre de régionalisation en Asie Orientale. Ces outils révèlent ainsi que la réalité institutionnelle en cours au sein de l'ASEAN+3 repose bien sur un processus de régionalisation. Ce travail permet donc de conclure que l'ASEAN+3 est désormais sur la voie d'une intégration régionale en profondeur. Il est donc le périmètre régional à retenir en Asie Orientale, sur la période 1997-2007.
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全球貿易自由化對台灣經濟之影響:以杜哈回合談判與東協加三自由貿易區為例陳寶丞 Unknown Date (has links)
由於WTO杜哈回合談判正在積極進行,而且東亞各國整合的程度、涵括的領域、融入的國家均有愈來愈深、愈來愈廣的趨勢,相信此兩股貿易自由化風潮對我國商品的競爭力、投資與經貿活動均會產生一定的影響,因此有必要於此進行深入研究。故本研究利用FTAP模型模擬分析(1)東協加三FTA,(2) 杜哈回合談判,以及(3) 東協加三FTA+杜哈回合談判之經濟效果,以便了解上述三個情境對台灣的影響。
本研究實證結果顯示:(1) 東協加三FTA將使台灣的整體福利減少1252.26百萬美元;對總體經濟方面的影響,台灣實質GDP減少0.25%,並使貿易條件惡化0.86%。(2) 杜哈回合談判若順利完成,台灣整體福利將增加4875.09百萬美元。總體經濟方面,台灣實質GDP將成長1.01%,貿易條件將改善1.16%。(3) 在東協加三FTA簽定且杜哈回合談判順利完成下,台灣整體福利增加4211.92百萬美元;總體經濟方面,將使台灣的實質GDP增加0.88%,貿易條件改善0.73%。
另外,本研究發現:(1) 區域貿易協定與多邊貿易協定間,彼此對於福利與產出等效果,會有互相抵消的情況發生。多邊貿易協定的簽定會大幅的削弱區域貿易協定所產生的效果。然而,區域貿易協定卻僅能抵消掉小部分多邊貿易協定所產生的效果。(2) 區域間自由貿易協定的簽定,不但會使區域外的國家遭受福利與產出等總體經濟的損失,並且也會抵消掉多邊貿易協定所產生的各項效果。(3) 若是能儘快完成杜哈回合談判,各國家儘快完成多邊貿易協定,則各個國家對於簽署區域或是雙邊自由貿易協定的意願可能會大大的減低。 / In recent years, WTO has been undertaking Doha Round negotiation. In addition, there is a deepening and widening trend on the integration of South East Asia economies. There two meovements of global trade liberalization might considerably impact investment and international trade activities of Taiwan as well as its international competitiveness. Therefore, investigating the integration of South East Asia regional economy should be reckoned as important. In this light, this thesis, based on the FTAP model, conducts simulation analyses to testify how (1) a free trade agreement among ASEAN plus three nations, (2) the accomplishment of Doha Round and (3) a free trade agreement among ASEAN plus three nations and the accomplishment of Doha Round will influence the economy of Taiwan.
The empirical results have shown: (1) ASEAN+3 FTA will decrease Taiwanese welfare by $1,252.26 million dollars. It will also deteriorate the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 0.25% and 0.86%. (2) The accomplishment of Doha Round will increase Taiwanese welfare by $4,875.09 million dollars. Additionally, it will improve the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 1.01% and 1.16%. (3) ASEAN+3 FTA and the accomplishment of Doha Round together will generate additional $4,211.92 million dollars welfare to Taiwan, and improve the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 0.88% and 0.73%, respectively.
Moreover, this thesis has found several interesting policy implications. First, the effects of a regional trade agreement and a multilateral trade agreement on welfare and outputs will offset each other. The effect of a multilateral trade agreement is generally greater than the effect of a regional trade agreement. Second, free trade agreements of different regions not only harm the welfare and outputs of countries outside these regions but also offset the benefits provided by the multilateral trade agreement. Finally, considering it may decrease the willingness to develop regional or bilateral free trade agreements, governments should treat the accomplishment of the multilateral trade agreement, such as Doha Round, as the top priority.
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The Research of PRC' Participation in the Asia Pacific Multilateral Security MechanismsHwang, Hong-Yao 26 July 2000 (has links)
After the Cold War, international relationships changed from the Yalta System (emphasis on military alliance and arms race led by both superpowers the U.S. and the former Soviet Union) to the Malta System (emphasis on economic and security cooperation). Multilateral security cooperation mechanisms in the Asia Pacific were established one after another under the transition of the whole international circumstance.
For purposes of maintaining regional stability, the PRC fully participates in the following meetings: ASEAN Regional Forum¡BThe Four Party Talks¡BAsia Europe Meeting¡BASEAN+3 Informal Summit¡BASEAN+1 Informal Summit¡BASEAN-China Dialogue Session¡BWorkshop on Managing Potential Conflicts in the South China Sea and Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific. It is a worthy issue to continuously observe whether these mechanisms can indeed shape China as a regional responsible member. On the other hand, we must question whether the PRC's participation is merely a tool that can help achieve other underlying purposes.
Accordingly, this thesis will discuss two main subjects. Firstly, we will look into China¡¦s standpoints and strategies for participating in these Asia Pacific multilateral security mechanisms. Secondly, we will examine the Asia Pacific security strategies of the U.S., JAPAN, and ASEAN as well as their standpoints and strategies towards the PRC's participation in the Asia Pacific multilateral security mechanisms.
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