由於WTO杜哈回合談判正在積極進行，而且東亞各國整合的程度、涵括的領域、融入的國家均有愈來愈深、愈來愈廣的趨勢，相信此兩股貿易自由化風潮對我國商品的競爭力、投資與經貿活動均會產生一定的影響，因此有必要於此進行深入研究。故本研究利用FTAP模型模擬分析(1)東協加三FTA，(2) 杜哈回合談判，以及(3) 東協加三FTA+杜哈回合談判之經濟效果，以便了解上述三個情境對台灣的影響。 本研究實證結果顯示：(1) 東協加三FTA將使台灣的整體福利減少1252.26百萬美元；對總體經濟方面的影響，台灣實質GDP減少0.25%，並使貿易條件惡化0.86%。(2) 杜哈回合談判若順利完成，台灣整體福利將增加4875.09百萬美元。總體經濟方面，台灣實質GDP將成長1.01%，貿易條件將改善1.16%。(3) 在東協加三FTA簽定且杜哈回合談判順利完成下，台灣整體福利增加4211.92百萬美元；總體經濟方面，將使台灣的實質GDP增加0.88%，貿易條件改善0.73%。 另外，本研究發現：(1) 區域貿易協定與多邊貿易協定間，彼此對於福利與產出等效果，會有互相抵消的情況發生。多邊貿易協定的簽定會大幅的削弱區域貿易協定所產生的效果。然而，區域貿易協定卻僅能抵消掉小部分多邊貿易協定所產生的效果。(2) 區域間自由貿易協定的簽定，不但會使區域外的國家遭受福利與產出等總體經濟的損失，並且也會抵消掉多邊貿易協定所產生的各項效果。(3) 若是能儘快完成杜哈回合談判，各國家儘快完成多邊貿易協定，則各個國家對於簽署區域或是雙邊自由貿易協定的意願可能會大大的減低。 / In recent years, WTO has been undertaking Doha Round negotiation. In addition, there is a deepening and widening trend on the integration of South East Asia economies. There two meovements of global trade liberalization might considerably impact investment and international trade activities of Taiwan as well as its international competitiveness. Therefore, investigating the integration of South East Asia regional economy should be reckoned as important. In this light, this thesis, based on the FTAP model, conducts simulation analyses to testify how (1) a free trade agreement among ASEAN plus three nations, (2) the accomplishment of Doha Round and (3) a free trade agreement among ASEAN plus three nations and the accomplishment of Doha Round will influence the economy of Taiwan. The empirical results have shown: (1) ASEAN+3 FTA will decrease Taiwanese welfare by $1,252.26 million dollars. It will also deteriorate the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 0.25% and 0.86%. (2) The accomplishment of Doha Round will increase Taiwanese welfare by $4,875.09 million dollars. Additionally, it will improve the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 1.01% and 1.16%. (3) ASEAN+3 FTA and the accomplishment of Doha Round together will generate additional $4,211.92 million dollars welfare to Taiwan, and improve the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 0.88% and 0.73%, respectively. Moreover, this thesis has found several interesting policy implications. First, the effects of a regional trade agreement and a multilateral trade agreement on welfare and outputs will offset each other. The effect of a multilateral trade agreement is generally greater than the effect of a regional trade agreement. Second, free trade agreements of different regions not only harm the welfare and outputs of countries outside these regions but also offset the benefits provided by the multilateral trade agreement. Finally, considering it may decrease the willingness to develop regional or bilateral free trade agreements, governments should treat the accomplishment of the multilateral trade agreement, such as Doha Round, as the top priority.

隨著全球化趨勢以及企業間越加激烈之競爭關係，生產者為滿足消費者之即時需求，即常透過多式運送模式將商品跨國快速遞送。物流服務之涵蓋範圍因而越發廣泛並持續擴展，除了實體之商品配送服務，並完善整合不同運送模式，且將高效率之管理、關務與其他商業活動納入範疇。此種整合型物流服務之出現，除了免除生產者與貿易商物流管理之額外負擔，以利其專注本業外，高品質之物流服務尚可提昇運輸服務業之生產力，同時並增進全球經濟福利之發展。 鑑於物流服務以及供應鏈管理服務均非屬W/120中之獨立部門，WTO會員即以CPC為基礎發展出物流服務清單與相關提案，以期提昇物流服務在市場開放與國民待遇之承諾情形。 本文首先介紹物流服務之貿易實務，概述物流服務之貿易概況、產業趨勢與貿易障礙；其次探討GATS 架構下物流服務之相關規範與會員提案，並分別就相關之GATS條文與會員提案發展為剖析。此外，本文並分析WTO會員就物流服務之現行承諾狀況與新回合之開放情形。最後，本文以物流服務之分類議題、定義議題與相關服務之新回合談判進展為重點，進行深入之分析並嘗試提出可行之解決之道。 / In the wake of globalization and increasingly fierce competition, goods often need to be transported through several countries (by road, rail, air or water) as quickly as possible in order to respond "just in time" to customer demand. Logistics services comprise a wide range of services and are constantly evolving In addition to the physical transportation of goods, based on an optimized combination of available modes of transport, it involves the efficient handling of management, customs and other business matters. The existence of integrated logistics services relieve manufacturers and traders of the burden of logistics management and allow them to focus on their core competencies. High-quality logistics services could also increase the productivity of the transport sector, and improve global economic welfare at the same time. Since neither logistics nor supply chain management is identified as a distinct industry on the W/120, WTO members that rely on the CPC have advocated developing a freight logistics checklist and related proposals in the hope of improving meaningful market access and national treatment commitments for logistics services. The thesis first introduces the practices of trade in logistics services, including the profiles, trends of industrial development, and trade barriers on trade in logistics services. Then the thesis discusses the related regulations and proposals of logistics services under the GATS framework, explaining the related GATS articles for logistics servies and clarifying their influence as well. Besides, the thesis also exam members’ existing commitments and offers on the logistics services. Finally, the thesis focuses on the classification, definition and negotiation issues on the logistics services, analyzing existing difficulties and trying to submit possible solutions.