CRT從1940年代開始就主宰著整個電視機的市場，開啟顯示技術的發展，到了二十一世紀，人類為追求高品質、更貼近人性化的生活，顯示器已從傳統的陰極射線管（CRT）進入平面顯示器（FPD）時代。在最新的平面顯示技術OLED （Organic Light Emitting Diode有機發光二極體）問世後，此平面顯示新技術更是吸引了產業及學術界的關注，進而從事開發與研究。
但是OLED歷年的產值與年成長率不如市調機構所預期，甚至在2006年發生了產業崩跌的情形，年營收成長率首度出現負成長，許多國際大廠在這段期間結束了OLED事業部門。不過這個下滑趨勢在2007年止住，且就此之後產值又開始向上攀升。OLED面板在2008年的產值年成長率甚至高過整體平面顯示器，使得整個產業似乎有逐漸抬頭的跡象。同時，知名的市調機構DisplaySearch也指出，儘管2008年全球OLED顯示器產值佔全球整體平面顯示器產值比重不到1%；但預估到了2015年時，OLED產品產值佔整體平面顯示器產值比重將提高到5%，各界對於這項新世代的顯示技術又再度抱持樂觀的看法。
有鑑於上述的產業發展現象，本研究回顧以往對於OLED的研究，研究重點往往放在OLED產業的發展策略、關鍵成功因素的分析，對於探討產業發展歷程的研究少有著墨。故本篇論文針對OLED產業發展的興衰進行研究，透過個案研究的方式，針對國內外OLED產業的發展進行深入探討，希望能夠找出產業衰弱與重新站起的原因，並供實務界參考。
本研究首先透過文獻的探討，瞭解用以分析產業發展的相關理論，其中包括「產業分析理論」、「擴散理論」、「複雜理論」等相關理論，並最後以「複雜理論下的動態創新過程」，結合部分產業分析理論與時間因素，發展出一套用以描述產業發展歷程的研究架構。本研究的命題整理如下：
1.在產業發展歷程中，產業內正向與負向驅動力之間的消長，會決定產業最終的表現。
2.產業有如複雜適應系統，有著非線性的發展，各自獨立自主但受其他個體的影響，因應市場不同變化，彼此互相學習模仿，並尋找有利的方向，共同演化。
3.產業環境如同處於混沌邊緣（the edge of chaos），一種介於有序與無序、現況與創新、穩定與轉型之間的狀態；而OLED產業就在這混沌邊緣不斷演化成長。
4.產業的擴散過程中，因為新的技術、新的應用領域等，都使產業內產生突現的現象，而突現現象的產生，有的會引發正回饋效果，有的引發負回饋效果，都對產業的擴散產生影響。
5.在產業的擴散過程中，具有較明顯自我組織現象的發展階段，比起自我組織現象較不明顯的階段，具有比較理想的擴散效果。
6.產業初始狀態的差異影響日後產業擴散的結果，同時產業內的創新領導者或意見領袖也會引領產業的發展。
7.產業發展初期，體制開放程度越高，可吸引越多的新進者，愈有利產業發展；相反的，體制開放程度低，則不利於產業發展；但若要產業蓬勃發展，產業內需要有規格化的標準。
8.技術突破的難易程度影響產業的擴散。
9.具成本與技術成熟度優勢的競爭性技術，會影響到新興技術的擴散。
10.當新技術進入產業化階段時，對於新技術的需求端，其採用與否會影響到產業的擴散。
11.政府的角色對於一個新興產業的發展，具有降低進入障礙，提高產業體制內自由度的助益。 / From the beginning of the 1940s, CRT was the key to the entire TV market. When the 21th era began, mankind were in pursuit of high-quality, closer to human life, so it changed from traditional display of the cathode ray tube (CRT) to the flat panel display (FPD) era. As the latest flat panel display technology OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diode Organic Light Emitting Diode) was first published, this flat panel display was a new technology which has attracted the concern of industry and academia, and then engaged in the development and research.
Nevertheless the production value of OLED was lower than the well-known forecast agent like DisplaySearch predicted, hence many international companies in the 2006 ended OLED business sector. However, this downward trend stopped in 2007, and it began to take-off. OLED panels in 2008,its annual growth rate of output was even higher than the overall flat-panel displays, making the whole industry seemed to be prosperous again.
From the above description of industrial development, the study of the past for OLED research, the focus was often on the OLED industry development strategy or on the analysis of critical success factors for OLED. To explore the development of research rarely written. Therefore, this paper is to study the rise and fall of OLED industry, using the way of case study.
This study first try to understand some relevant theories which are about industry development, including the "industry analysis", "diffusion theory", "complexity theory" and other related theories, and finally combined "the complex dynamic process of innovation " with some factors of industry analysis and the time factor, to describe the development of OLED. Finishing this study comes out some findings such as following:
In the course of industrial development, the positive and negative driving forces which affect the growth of industry, will determine the ultimate performance of industry.
The industry, in the process of diffusion , which showed more obvious self-organization than the others will get more satisfactory results.
There are still some other findings in the thesis, I hope the study of the cause and effect about OLED industry will be useful for practical reference.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0095359003 |
| Creators | 張惟淳 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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