北韓問題是二十世紀延續至今卻始終未能解決的複雜議題，這是因為牽涉的因素眾多：南北韓、周邊國家以及國際的考量使「維持現狀」與「模糊」政策成為處理北韓問題可以接受的模式。但事實上，吾人必須認知到在此議題上，最重要的主角仍是北韓與美國，但顯然雙方各有盤算而不能或不願直接解決。因此本文旨在探討2001至2011年美國對北韓之政策，且嘗試在現今相關領域的多數美國立場中，盡可能尋求以相對公允、同理心的角度分析問題，而非美國觀點的一言堂。本文以法國戰略學家薄富爾(André Beaufre)之「行動戰略」(Strategy of Action) 理論作為研究途徑，輔以大量相關數據資料及專著，用意在於平衡地討論美國戰略並批判其中好壞。
本文認為，小布希與歐巴馬政府對北韓政策目標一致，但戰略有所不同。受制於北韓核報復攻擊、中東戰事、經濟與他國因素，美國難以動武直取北韓，因此必須從軍事外的選項著手。筆者從軍事、政治、經濟與外交面向，以政治診斷(political diagnosis)及戰略診斷(strategic diagnosis)探討兩屆政府對北韓之行動方案。小布希和歐巴馬政府在戰略應用上符合薄富爾的觀點，但在架構面上卻有缺失，最終由於無法促使中國相助，以及自身立場的謬誤，導致兩屆政府北韓政策之失誤。 / The North Korea issue remains unresolved, and the only acceptable options for the neighbor countries are the status quo policy and the policy of deliberate ambiguity. However, it has to be acknowledged that the most important roles are North Korea and the U.S., and it is obvious they have different plans in their minds.
The main idea of this thesis is to study the U.S. Policy toward North Korea (2001-2011), and present unbiased points of view instead of only the U.S. aspect. This thesis uses the Strategy of Action of André Beaufre, a French Strategist, as the research method, to analyze data and studies to fairly find out the pros and cons of the U.S. Policy toward North Korea.
This thesis shows that the George W. Bush administration and the Obama administration share the same goals but different strategies toward North Korea. The U.S. have difficulty in using military action since it tries to avoid North Korea taking nuclear retaliation, and the war in the middle east and the sinking economy also limit the ability of the U.S. government. This thesis analyzes the U.S. policy toward North Korea from the aspects of military power, politics, economy and diplomacy, and it uses political diagnosis and strategic diagnosis as the approaches to examine the action plans of both Bush and Obama administrations. The research shows that the actions plans match the point of view of André Beaufre strategically, but the flaws of the plan structure, the failure to have China take a stance against North Korea and the illogicalness of the government position finally led the U.S. policy toward North Korea to a frustrated end.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0972530341 |
| Creators | 黃柏愷, Huang, Bo Kai |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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