兩岸發展競爭力消長，最近數年來尤為明顯。據瑞士洛桑管理學院(IMD)2007年全球競爭力評比，台灣排名自2005年之第11名滑落至2007年之第18名；中國大陸則由31名提升到第15名，首度超越台灣。彼長我消之因素頗多，牽涉問題亦深且不易解。例如兩岸的統獨之爭，國內的內閣更迭波潮不斷，及政局穩定度、政策一致性、社會凝聚力，以及投資誘因力道等表現相對脆弱。相對於中國大陸，則是彼岸發展處於強勢有利時期，正所謂對岸屬「政經和諧」時期，台灣則處於「政熱經冷」時期，而兩岸間亦依舊停留於「政冷經熱」階段。對岸目前所走的路線恰好是台灣三、四十年前以「經濟為導向」的發展途徑，此為兩岸政、經發展消長最明顯的地方。縱使台灣在自由民主、發明專利、通膨水準、高科技產品、科技人才仍占有優勢，亦或政府大力協助廠商布局全球，如果兩岸未能和諧發展，則仍將難於突破當前困境，或競爭力將持續陷入每下愈況的困局。
本論文研究目的主要針對台灣與中國大陸國力發展之消長過程與趨勢，及兩岸互動對台灣是威脅或是機會，探討台灣發展新思維及應採措施，亦即如何趨吉避凶，乃為本論文研究之預期目標。本論文首次引用決策模式──層級分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP），將兩岸複雜問題系統化，以簡易之結構化思考架構下，由不同層面給予層級分(析)解，讓決策者迅速研判台灣之兩岸發展之優選策略，或據以實施。首先以過去有關兩岸政治、經濟、國防、外交等政策文獻，作為構思研擬台灣當前與未來急需優先採行的重大策略後，隨即親訪產、官、研專家，擬訂AHP層級分析法問卷調查所需問題界定，構建層級結構。即第一層為全方位優選策略，第二層為政治和諧(I1)、經濟發展(I2)、國防安全(I3)與全球化(I4)等四大主題，第三層為各主題內之各子(次要)項(各細分五子項，合計20子(次要)項)。
AHP層級分析法略以總群(組)體(total)、偏經濟專長大於40歲（eco>40）及小於四十歲(eco<40)、偏政策專長大於40歲(pol>40)及小於40歲(pol<40)等五個分類組別，輸入計算軟體結果分析比較得知，不論總群體組或不同各次群組，即不分何種專長、年齡層都以經濟發展(I2)為首選指標，其餘三大主題(項)依次為國防安全、全球化及政治和諧，但彼此權重之高低卻在伯仲之間(詳本論文第四章第三節結果分析)。足見且印證了經濟發展是當前兩岸發展中台灣之首要任務，亦為國內人民、企業界和國外世界級跨國管理大師之共同關注焦點。
本論文採用文獻及當前問題趨勢分析，配合訪談及應用「層級分析法」結果，顯示層級分析法是一種簡易又便捷的優選決策工具。不但可免去一般繁複卷數、人力之累，且其分析結果雖僅具少數專家卓見，卻能充分反映多數人的看法和企求目標，也頗符合「二八法則」管理關鍵原則，值得推廣應用。本論文研究之結論與建議事項，或可提供有關當局施政之參考。 / The rise and fall of competitiveness between China and Taiwan has fluctuated dramatically in recent years. According to the latest IMD World Competitiveness Scoreboard 2007 (published on May 10th 2007), the ranks of Taiwan dropped from 11th in 2005 to 18th in 2007. On the contrary, China’s rank increased from 31st to 15th in the corresponding period of time. This is the first time China’s ranking overtook Taiwan. There are a lot of factors involved of the rise in China and the fall of Taiwan; the problems involved are complicated and hard to solve. There are numerous examples, such as the disputes about Taiwan’s cross strait status, the frequent change of the cabinets in Taiwan, as well as the political instability, policy inconsistency, the social cleavage, and the lack of attraction for investment in Taiwan. These problems have only improved a little when they are compared to China’s progress. China is in the stage of fast development, and both of the political and economical circumstances are in harmony. In contrast, the Taiwan government has focused on political issues rather than how to solve economical problems in the recent years. In addition to this, the cross-strait issues focus more on economical than political issues. Now, the road taken by China, happens to be the road that was taken by Taiwan government, which emphasized “economical-oriented policies” 30 to 40 years ago. This is the most noticeable aspect of the comparison of political and economical development across the strait. Taiwan has the advantage in freedom, patents, the inflation situation, high-tech products, and technology elites. The Taiwan government also spares no effort in assisting companies’ global layout. If the cross-strait situation cannot be improved, the current situation will be difficult to solve. In the end, the competitiveness of Taiwan will worsen.
The target of this thesis lies on analysis of the process and tendency of rise and fall of national power across the strait, as well as discussion about whether or not cross-strait cooperation is a threat or an opportunity for Taiwan. It discusses the new thinking and measures of development that Taiwan should take. In other words, how to make good decisions and avoid bad policies is the goal of this thesis. This is the first time the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is adopted to systematize complicated problems cross strait. By using simplified structural thinking, different levels of problems are analyzed by the AHP. This way, policy makers can judge what are strategies are better to take for cross strait development, and may put them into practice in the future. In the beginning of this thesis, documents concerning cross-strait political affairs, economy, national defense, and foreign affairs were used as references to design major strategies that needed to be solved presently and in the future in Taiwan. Later, experts from industries, the government, and the research field were interviewed to design questions in the survey according to the AHP, and to make the structure of different levels. The first level is about policies in priority in every aspect. The second one is about political stability (I1), economical development (I2), national security (I3), and globalization (I4). The third level is about sub-items of each item (five sub-items of each and 20 sub-items in total).
The AHP was divided into five groups: total, those with the specialty over 40 years of age (eco>40) and under (eco<40), those with the specialty of policy-making over 40 years of age (pol>40) and under (pol<40). After the five classified data was analyzed by computer software, the result showed that both the total and different sub-groups, people in different ages and with different specialties, all chose economic development (I2) as their choice in priority. The other three selective items in order were national security, globalization, and political stability. However, the differences among them were very slim (Please refer to the results and analysis in Chapter 4.3). This proves that economic development should be the primary mission in current cross-strait development. It is also a common concern by the people, companies, and international masters of management.
In this thesis, documents and the current problems according to the AHP were adopted. With the interviews and results from the AHP, it showed that AHP is an easy and convenient tool to make prioritize policies. It not only can save the time and efforts of giving out large numbers of the survey, but the result can truly reflect opinions and goals pursued by the majority, even though only the opinions of a limited number of experts were taken. This also meets the 80/20 principle of the crucial rule of management. Meanwhile, it can also draw conclusion and suggestions in this thesis in providing policy-making references to the government. It shall be promoted and applied with great exertion.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0094981025 |
| Creators | 劉豐壽, Liu, Feng-Shou |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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