我國股市參與者向來以自然人為主，自然人所佔之比例約80%，即是一般俗稱的「散戶」。但散戶往往對於財務報表、業績、獲利能力等基本面資訊之依賴性極低，且無法使用及消化過於複雜之資訊，導致多數散戶投資者僅是抱著投機的心態盲目跟進，極容易成為公司內部人與市場中炒手不當得利的犧牲者。故本研究擬站在小額投資人之立場，嘗試由較為小額投資人熟知、容易瞭解且能直接反映企業營運優劣之「利潤」觀點出發，藉由分析損益表及現金流量表關鍵的財報資訊，可幫助投資人判讀企業體質好壞，進而能投資具成長性之企業，同時更能有效降低因投資失敗企業而遭受重大之損失之風險。
本研究以我國股票上市、上櫃、興櫃及公開發行公司為研究對象，探討所篩選出之損益與現金流量項目，對於評估企業經營績效與預測財務危機的效用，即判斷篩選的損益與現金流量項目是否對企業經營績效具有評價攸關性及對企業財務危機具有預測攸關性；並以獨立樣本t檢定、迴歸分析及Logistic分析，對假說進行檢定。
經過實證結果，獲致以下的結論：
1.損益與現金流量項目對企業經營績效之評價攸關性：本研究所選取之關鍵損益與現金流量項目均對企業短期、中期及長期經營績效具有顯著的解釋能力；
2.損益與現金流量項目對企業財務危機之預測攸關性：本研究所選取之關鍵損益與現金流量項目均對企業爆發財務危機前3年度內，區分出財務危機公司與正常公司之顯著差異，顯示所採取的變數具有差異性價值。 / The individual investors account for 80% as compared to 20% institutional investors, which characterized Taiwan’s stock market. Individual investors lack the capability to comprehend financial statements. They seldom rely on fundamental analysis of corporate performance to make investment decisions. In a stock market with the characteristics as Taiwan the individual investors are usually the victims of insider trading and market speculation.
The purpose of this study is to identify certain financial items from income statement and the statement of cash flows which are easy to understand by the individual investors and are valuation relevant as well as possessing the capability to predict the financial distress of listed companies.
Nine financial items from income statement and the statement of cash flows were selected for test and the results indicate that:
1.All selected financial items are valuation relevant in distinguishing short term, mid-term and long term operating performance.
2.All selected financial items are capable of predicting financial failure of enterprises three years preceding the financial distress emerge.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0923530321 |
| Creators | 蔡惠玲, Tsai, Hui-ling |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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