台灣本身係屬於一種外貿型的經濟體系，貿易依存度高，運輸對台灣來說可算是經濟發展的重要關鍵，由於運輸係屬於衍生性需求，運輸公司的經營績效易受景氣而波動，導致企業及投資者不容易知道公司本身之潛在投資價值，故本研究希望能透過評估運輸產業中五家主要的上市公司，估算樣本公司股價合理區間與驗證實際股價的合理性。研究結果一方面可提供運輸公司做為未來企業經營時的參考，另一方面，可做為投資人在理性評估企業價值時的參考依據。
本研究主要以在2003年之前上市的長榮海運、陽明海運、萬海航運、中華航空以及長榮航空五家運輸公司做為樣本，以其1999年至2003年之財務報表作為預估個案公司未來的成長率及獲利率的依據，並利用現金流量折現法分採銷售導向及盈餘導向兩種模式，依樂觀、最可能發生及悲觀三種情境，估算其實質價格區間，並與個案公司之實際股價相比較，以推論目前股價的合理性以及目前股價背後隱含的營收成長率及盈餘成長率，另利用敏感性分析將各個評價因子繪製成龍捲風圖，以觀察個別關鍵評價因子對股價的影響程度。
實證結果顯示，長榮海運、陽明海運以及萬海航運等三家海運公司中，除萬海航運股價略微被低估外，其股價大都位在合理價格區間內；中華航空及長榮航空兩家航空公司由於受到業外虧損影響，以及進行評價時只考慮本業營運部分，因此其實際股價長期低於合理實質股價區間；另敏感性分析方面，經由各個案公司之龍捲風圖可明顯發現，銷售利潤率對陽明海運、萬海航運、中華航空以及長榮航空的股價影響幅度最大，而影響長榮海運股價幅度最大的評價因子則為盈餘成長率，另影響股價幅度最小的評價因子則主要是營收成長率。 / The study mainly focuses on the samples of 5 public offering companies in transportation industry; they are Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Line, Wan Hai Lines, China Airlines, and Eva Air. Based on their financial statements through 1999 to 2003, the study speculates their growth rates together with profit margin on sales in future. Furthermore, from each scenario, optimistic, possible, and pessimistic, the study employs two models of Earning-Driven and Sales-Driven Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) respectively to infer their intrinsic value. Comparing the value to their market prices, the study estimates their reasonableness as well as implicit sales growth rates and earning growth rates. In the end, the study makes use of sensitivity analysis to present valuation factors in a tornado chart for every company so as to observe how the factors influence its market price. Judging from those charts, the study concludes that profit margin on sales has great influences on the market prices of Yang Ming Line, Wan Hai Lines, China Airlines and Eva Air, whereas what influences Evergreen Marine most is the factor of earning growth rate. On the other hand, sales growth rate has the fewest influences upon all of the market prices.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0913550722 |
| Creators | 楊政龍, Yang, Cheng-Lung |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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