本研究主要目的要在探討混沌理論在國小校長危機管理之應用，包括；一、混沌理論主要論點及其隱喻在校園危機認知的涵義。二、國小校長如何藉由混沌理論的主要論點及其隱喻進行危機管理。三、國小校長「校園危機的認知」與「校長的危機管理」之現況。四、國小校長「校園危機的認知」與「校長的危機管理」兩者之關係。最後提出結論與建議作為教育行政單位及國小校長改進危機管理的參考。
本研究兼採文獻探討、問卷調查及訪談等研究方法。依據研究目的編製「國小校長危機管理研究調查」問卷，其中「校園危機的認知」，包括混沌理論的主要概念：蝴蝶效應、回饋機制、碎形、奇異吸引子、分岔。「校長的危機管理」則包括危機預防與準備、危機處理與控制、危機追蹤與學習三個向度。問卷以台北市、台北縣、基隆市國小校長386人為普查對象。共回收有效問卷271份，可用率達70.20%。問卷結果經由t 考驗、單因子變異數分析、積差相關、逐步多元逥歸等統計方法進行分析與考驗。其次，參照校園危機之經驗、校長受訪意願，及縣市樣本比例，選取八位國小校長，進行訪談。
根據文獻探討、問卷調查及訪談結果，獲致下列結論：
一、混沌理論提供危機研究一個新的典範。
二、校園危機以意外事件及衝突管教事件所佔比例最高。
三、整體而言，校長贊同校園危機的混沌現象，五個向度當中以蝴蝶效應贊同程度較高，碎形較低。
四、混沌理論的主要論點在校園危機案例中獲得證實。
五、整體而言，校長的危機管理情形尚佳，三個向度得分雖有高低，惟相差不大。
六、危機管理的三個向度，校長在不同的項目，表現各有優劣。
七、不同背景變項的校長，除了學校規模之外，其餘的變項包括性別、年齡、年資、及服務地區，在校園危機的認知，沒有顯著的差異；不同背景變項的校長，包括性別、年齡、年資、學校規模及服務地區，在校長的危機管理，沒有顯著的差異。
八、校長的校園危機認知程度不同，在校長的危機管理上，有顯著差異。
九、危機混沌現象的認知與校長的危機管理，有顯著的正相關。
十、校園危機混沌現象的敏銳度對於校長的危機管理具有預測作用。
本研究依據上述研究結論，對教育行政單位及國小校長以及後續研究提出下列建議：
一、對教育行政機關的建議
(一)校長培育過程應重視混沌理論與危機管理的專題研究。
(二)校長的危機管理在職教育，在內容上，要特別加強媒體溝通能力，充實法律常識；在方式上，要重視經驗的分享、加強模擬演練。
(三)教育主管單位對於校長的危機管理要給予充分的授權與支援。
二、對國小校長的建議
(一)運用多元的研究典範，正確理解校園危機，進而管理校園危機。
(二)重視意外事件及衝突管教事件的危機管理。
(三)把握混沌現象在危機案例的重要啟示，進行危機管理。
(四)加強校園危機管理容易疏漏的項目。
(五)去除危機管理的迷思，建立面對危機的積極態度。
(六)正視校園危機混沌現象與危機管理的相關與預測。
三、對未來研究的建議：
(一)研究範圍，可以擴及台灣省其他縣市以及其他層級之學校，以利全面性的了解與建議。
(二)研究對象，可以擴及教師與其他行政人員。研究對象的基本資料，宜將研究所學歷再細分，而危機處理經驗，則僅限於校長任職期間，以考驗校長的學歷及危機處理經驗在危機認知及危機管理是否存有差異。
(三)研究工具，仍宜先行抽樣預試，以建立研究工具較佳之信度與效度。
(四)研究主題，建議以校長的危機決策，及危機溝通作進一步研究，深入探討在非線性的環境之下，決策及溝通的過程與策略。 / This research mainly discusses the application of chaos theory on crisis management of elementary school principal.
The research method is based on the past literature, questionnaires and interviews. The targets for the questionnaire are the 386 elementary principals in Taipei City, Taipei County and Keelung City. 271 effective questionnaires are collected with the effective rate of 70.20%. Test of T-distribution, one-way ANOVA, product-moment correlation, stepwise multiple regression were applied to data analysis. Moreover, eight elementary school principals were interviewed.
According to the past literature study, the result collected from questionnaire and interviews, the following conclusions are emphasized:
1.Chaos theory provides a new paradigm for crisis research.
2.Unpredictable incident and improper discipline concern higher ratio in school crisis.
3.Principals most agreed on the butterfly effect and less agreed on the fractals under the chaos in school crisis.
4.The key concepts of chaos theory are demonstrated under the events in school crisis.
5.The overall performance for principal’s crisis management is satisfied.
6.The performance in the three dimensions for the crisis management varies in different items.
7.Except for school’s size, there is no significant difference in school crisis awareness for principals from different backgrounds including gender, age, years of service and location. There is also no significant difference in crisis management including gender, age, years of service, location and school’s size.
8.Discrepancy for principal’s school awareness leads the variation for crisis management.
9.Significant correlation exits between principal’s awareness on chaos theory and crisis management.
10.The sensitivity of school’s crisis obtains a predictable function for crisis management.
The following statements are suggested for the educational administration, elementary school principals and the further researchers:
1.For educational administration:
(1) Chaos theory and crisis management should be emphasized in pre-principal’s training program.
(2) On-job training program for principals should include communication with media and law knowledge as well as experience sharing and rehearsal enhancement.
(3) The education administration should provide sufficient authorization and assistance.
2.For elementary school principals:
(1) Apply dynamic research paradigms to understand and manage school crisis.
(2) Accentuate the crisis management on unpredictable incidents and improper disciplines.
(3) Emphasize the crisis examples in chaos to handle crisis management.
(4) Value the minor issues for school crisis management.
(5) Eliminate the illusion for crisis management and establish the positive attitude toward crisis.
(6) Regard the relative prediction for school crisis chaos and crisis management.
3.For further researchers:
(1) The research framework can expand to the school all over Taiwan for overall understanding and suggestions.
(2) The research target can expand to the teachers and the staffs in school. The basic information for the target can be detailed based on the education background and crisis management experience.
(3) Research method can be randomized pre-test to establish better validity and reliability.
(4)Research topic can be further developed in decision-making and communication process of crisis under a non-linear environment.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0088152507 |
| Creators | 李宏才 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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