本論文係有鑒於「防患重於治療」，歷史文獻告訴我們，無論中共是否犯台，或採取何種舉動，中共一旦決定動武，其動機通常是令人出乎意料的；中共即使在戰具、戰術與整體態勢均不利的狀況下，但只要威脅到他的「國家安全」、「領土主權」與「民族意識」，中共即以「寧失千軍、不失寸土」的引爆戰爭在所不惜。因此，只要兩岸存在軍事衝突的可能性，就必須有常設的「危機管理機制」；爰此，筆者從兩岸關係發展之潛在的危機因子，分析中共在軍事衝突前危機處理的模式，及我國在可能發生衝突的過程中，如何利用危機管理的機制，以降低發生衝突的風險尋求解決與預應之道，來維護兩岸和平與國家安全，亦為增進國家永續生存與發展的籌碼。據此，本研究目的有三：
一、分析並比較兩岸軍事危機管理之模式—藉分析比較兩岸危機管理模式，提出化解兩岸衝突的正確途徑，以「避免戰爭」、「化危機為轉機」，消弭我國生存發展的威脅。
二、危機管理的模式在兩岸危機管理的適用性—面對中共強大的軍事威脅和美國的現實利益的考量，政府危機管理的決策機構，如何從危機管理的理論基礎及策略手段，做出正確的指導與處理。
三、研究我國危機管理機制並探尋改善及精進方法—檢討現階段我國軍事危機管理作為及癥結因素所在，俾尋求化解之道及研擬未來我國於軍事危機處理之策進作法。 / “Prevention is better than fixing.” From historical lessons, no matter how many the odds is; once the Chinese Communists party make up their mind to resolve so called “internal affairs” through the issues of idealism of nationalists, national security, or sovereignty. PLA would take all cost even at the circumstance of lacking regular amphibious operation transportation capability to invade Taiwan.
Therefore, to establish crisis management mechanism is essential in accordance of possibility of military conflicts between the two. We analyze the factors which could escalate the conflict and to develop solutions to manage situation in order to maintain the regional stability and to serve our national interests.
This study prposes the following three:
1. Analyzing and comparing the military crisis models; With the analysis and comparison, it may find solutions to deescalate the military conflict between the two, to avoid war, and to find opportunity out of crisis. The study could help the decision makers to diminish the threat to our national security.
2. Finding strategic measures of crisis management that could be adapted the Taiwan Strait model; we need consider the factors of US interests and gigantic PRC military power. How should the ROC leadership adopt crisis the management to make correct decision?
3. Studying existing military crisis management measures of our nation and to find improvements; in the study, we inspect the practice military crisis measures and the controlling factors. We could provide some suggestions for better management.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0095922002 |
| Creators | 錢宗旺, Chien, Tsung Wang |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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