隨著全球化的發展，廿一世紀的國際安全情勢更為錯綜複雜，其中「恐怖攻擊」具備成本低、效果高、機動性強的條件，讓恐怖攻擊行動沒有時間、空間的限制，亦無道德、規範的侷限，此種全然改變戰爭本質的非傳統型態戰爭行為，儼然已成為危害國際社會發展與人類生存的一種新形態危機。
今日國際社會所要面對的「恐怖攻擊」危機，是由人為所誘發的危機。受到不同社會系統內政治、文化、經濟、種族、宗教等因素相對之間的動態性互動影響，使得危機的源頭更趨向於多元與複雜，因此，若能及早偵知危機預將發生或能判明引爆危機的原由，對於危機管理甚有助益。
針對「動態性複雜」問題，Peter M. Senge發展一套源自於系統動力學的「系統思考」途徑，透過「資訊回饋」的特性，由整體思考方式與觀察環狀因果的互動關係，能看出一再重複發生的結構型態，釐清複雜事件背後運作的簡單結構，並經由模式設計改善組織及工作指導準則。
研究發現，在危機管理的系統思考途徑中，事件層次的反應式作為僅能有限度地預防危機與處理危機；行為變化型態層次的順應變動中的趨勢，能從變動趨勢中警覺危機、發現危機與危機處理，若要全方位預防危機、有效危機處理以避免後遺，就必須從系統結構層次的觀點著手，改造行為的變化型態。
依據九一一事件的分析，人為所誘發危機的關鍵在於「人」，以及「人與人的互動關係」，爭奪的重點就在「利益」，也就是「得」與「失」之間；恐怖主義濫殺無辜，不可原諒也不可寬容，但另一方面，反恐政策也不應如美國政府在九一一事件後「擴張軍武、推銷軍售、共同發展武器」等作為就可以達成。
美、英等強權國家在探討反恐策略為何失敗、譴責恐怖攻擊手段兇殘之際，是否也應該反省文明衝突與族群對立的源頭，以及阿富汗、伊拉克人民的死傷慘狀，以及在其他地方所發生的殺戮與飢餓問題，才能避免強權國家一意孤行的後果，由全球的無辜者共同承擔。同時，基於地球的資源有限，如何和平共處、分享資源，才是遠離「人為誘發危機」的最佳方法。 / Following the development of globalization, the international security situation of 21st century becomes more complicated. The "terror attack" has the conditions of low cost, high effect, and high mobility, which make the terrorist no limitation of time and space and no restriction of moral and norm. The kind of non-traditional type warfare behavior completely changes the nature of war. That solemnly becomes the new type crisis to endanger the development of international community and the existence of human being.
Today’s international community should face the "terror attack" crisis which is brought out by mankind. The factors of politics, culture, economy, race, and religion of different kind of community systems have relatively dynamic interaction effect which makes the crisis origin trend to more diverse and complicated. For this reason, if we can early detect the cause of the crisis, when and where, it will be very helpful for crisis management.
Being aimed at "dynamic complexity", Peter M. Senge developed the "systems thinking" approach from systematic dynamics which goes through the characteristic of "information feedback" from the interaction of integrated thought manner and observed circle effect, and find out the repeated configuration to clear the back performance of simple structure of complicated event, and improve the guidelines of organization and work by mode design.
Findings discover that during the approach of systems thinking of crisis management, event-arrangement behavior can only limitedly prevent from crisis and handle crisis. The variation-orientated trend of behavior variation arrangement can watch crisis, discover crisis, and handle crisis from variation trend. If someone wants to dimensionally prevent crisis, effectively handle crisis and avoid sequela, he should do it from the viewpoint of systematic constructive arrangement and to change the behavior variation type.
According the 911 analysis, the key point of man-made crisis is "man", and the key point of argument from "interaction of the men" is "benefit", which is between "to gain" and "to lose". The terrorism causes the death of innocence, which can not be forgiven. But in the other side, counter-terrorist policy should not be achieved by "arms drive, promoting military sale, and mutually developing weapons", provided from US government after 9/11.
When the powerful states, such as US, UK, probe into failure of counter-terrorist policy and condemn the cruel measure of terrorist attack, they should make themselves-examination of the fountainhead of civilization conflict and clan confrontation, and the casualty of Afghanistan and Irapi, and the slaughter and starvation of other places. Considering those things, we can avoid the result of powerful state doing, which put on the innocence of the world. At the same time, based on the limited resources of the earth, the best way to keep off "man-made crisis" is to live peace and to share resources.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0088921010 |
| Creators | 雷國宏 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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