近年來許多財務預警模式的研究提供了各種變數對公司財務危機預測能力的研究，其中財務變數屬於個別風險，總體經濟變數屬於系統風險，考慮到個別產業特性的差異，影響的因素也會隨著產業各有不相同，本研究透過加入個別產業變數，分別去探討個別產業變數對企業發生財務危機是否會有顯著的影響。
在實證研究部分，本研究嘗試以受到總體經濟變數影響差異較大的食品業及營建業為例，說明影響企業發生財務危機的因素。本研究依據離散涉險模型以及羅吉斯模型進行廻歸分析後發現，受到景氣循環影響波動甚巨的營建業以及較不受景氣影響的食品業，在加入個別產業因素後，模型的解釋能力提高，而各項總體以及個別產業經濟指標不論在長期、短期都具有參考的意義，在未來分析師進行產業以及公司評價時，我們建議可以依據總體、產業指標、公司財務狀況來進行分析，將會比只考慮總體經濟變數以及財務變數，得到較為準確的判斷。 / Financial and Macro economic variables are two factors always being discussed in past default forecasting researches. Financial variables are idiosyncratic risk and Macro economic variables are systematic risk. Despite above two factors, there might still exist great difference between varied industries and each industry could be affected by different events. The theme of this research will be discussing this issue, and this research could provide some empirical and theoretical value in this issue. In our research, we will test one industry which is affected by macro economic variables and the one which is not been affected so much. Construction and Food industries will be considered in our research.
No matter the construction industry or the food industry are not only been affected by macro economic factors but also been affected by individual industry factors. In addition, when we added them together into the model, the ability of explanation increased. The conclusion of our research is that when Analyst making comments on the companies default, they need to analyze with macro economic, individual industry and financial factors separately according to different industries.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0096357001 |
| Creators | 林佑任 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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