台灣近年來逐漸放寬外匯及金融的管制措施，使得台灣與國際間的資本移動愈趨活絡，而國際間利息套利活動的發生，使得各國的外匯與金融市場相互結合在一起，匯率與利率相互影響且其關係愈形密切，當資本可以自由移動時，每個時點兩國間利率的差異應等於預期的即期匯率變動率，此時無拋補利率平價說成立。
在實證方法上，本文擬以Djckey & Fuller(1979, 1981) ADF檢定，及Johansen (1988)最大概似共積估計法，對UIP進行實證分析。由於政府在各期間放寬資本管制的幅度不同，因此本文將實證期間區分成三個階段，分別為資本管制初步開放、逐步放寬與大幅開放三段期間，對台灣地區從事UIP的檢定。實證結果發現：
(1)在資本管制初步開放的第一段期間，國內外資產報酬率不具有共整合關係，UIP不成立。
(2)在資本管制逐步放寬的第二段期間，國內外資產報酬率雖具有共整合關係，但是UIP不成立，表示資本移動性雖然較第一段期間提高，但仍有其限制性。
(3)在資本管制大幅開放的第三段期間，國內外資產報酬率不僅具有共整合關係，且UIP成立，表示在資本移動性相對大的階段，由本文實證檢定結果發現，UIP確實是成立的。 / In order to assess the degree of capital mobility of Taiwan in the sense of uncovered interest parity, this paper attempts to estimate the relationship between the return rate of domestic asset and the return rate of foreign asset with cointegration. Main conclusions are: In the first period(1985:9-1989:6), the return rate of domestic asset and foreign asset are not cointegrated by themselves. In the second period(1989:7-1993:12),a unique long- run relationship between these two variables can't be rejected. But the hypothesis of uncovered interest parity is rejected. These empirical evidences imply that capital is not freely mobile in the first and second period. However, in the third period(1994:l- 1998:3),with fewer financial regulations, a unique long-run relationship between these two variables can't be rejected. In addition, the coefficient of the return rate of foreign asset is insignificantly different from 1. It means that capital can moves most free in recent years.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/B2002002191 |
| Creators | 林昆英, Lin, Kun-Ying |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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