國內有許多以不同資料、次市場劃分以及控制品質的方法編製房地產相關價格指數，提供不同的價格資訊，然而編製的過程可能產生偏誤，影響價格指數之準確性，導致房價指數變動與市場訊息不符，因此各種相關房價指數之市場代表性仍有待釐清。
本文首先觀察目前市場較常使用之信義房價指數(中古屋)及國泰房地產指數(預售屋及新成屋)，發現近年來信義房價指數無法適當反應房地產市場景氣繁榮的情形。此二房價指數領先落後的關係亦不符合相關理論及過去實證，因此認為此二房價指數長期趨勢受到編製資料及估計方法上的偏誤所影響。接著利用政府(房地產交易價格簡訊)及業者(台灣不動產成交行情公報)資料以特徵價格法重新建立台北市及台北縣中古屋房價指數，並與信義房價指數作比較，結果顯示本文建立之中古屋房價指數相對於信義房價指數較符合市場變動與相關訊息。最後，為求未來房地產資訊之應用，將過去相關房價指數研究成果與本文建立之房價指數整合，並驗證台北市國泰房地產指數領先整合中古屋房價指數一季，台北縣國泰房地產指數領先整合中古屋房價指數二季，顯示此台北都會區的中古屋及預售屋房價指數相互間的關係符合相關理論推導與過去實證結果。 / There are many real-estate related price indices established in various formation of datum, submarkets and modeling, providing different kinds of price information. But the process itself may be a victim of error, hence affecting the precision of price indices and cause discrepancy between price indices’ variation and correlative market information, therefore the representativeness of real-estate related price indices must be clarified.
In this study, we observe the commonly used Sinyi Housing Price Index (existing housing) and Cathay Real-Estate Price Index(pre-sales and new housing), and discovered that Sinyi Housing Price Index is incapable of reflecting the recent boom in the real-estate market. The Granger Causality test result of these two housing price indices(HPI) is inconsequent to relevant theory and empirical studies, therefore attribute this to the error within the establishment of HPI. Then, we reestablish existing housing HPI of Taipei city and Taipei county by using government and enterprise organized data. In comparison to Sinyi Housing Price Index, our newly established HPI cohere with correlative market information. And last, for future application of real-estate market information, we integrate empirical studies in the past with ours and examine its lead-lag relation with Cathay Real-Estate Price Index. The Granger Causality test result corresponds to relevant theory and empirical studies, furthermore, we found that the time-gap between Cathay Real-Estate Price Index and the Integrated existing housing HPI in Taipei city is 1-season, and 2-season in Taipei county.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0094257015 |
| Creators | 洪御仁 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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