台北市房價明顯高於其他地區，也使得民眾的購屋負擔相對沉重。其中房貸金額屬未來現金流出部分，是否有足夠能力償還貸款將直接影響生活品質。本研究旨在了解總體經濟因素對台北地區家戶房貸負擔能力的影響，並進一步探討家戶房貸負擔能力在面對相同因素下，是否會因所得的差異而有不同影響。
本研究採用Gan and Hill (2009) 提出的負擔風險法 (affordability at risk) 為基礎，藉由應還本付息金額與可負擔還本付息金額等資料計算出家戶單位房貸負擔風險。樣本期間為2009年至2014年，並將台北市全體家戶依所得區分為五等分位，再進一步比較各項經濟變數在不同年度及不同所得下與家戶房貸負擔風險之關係。
經實證結果得到以下四點結論： (1) 台北市整體家戶房貸負擔風險在樣本期間主要受「房價指數」、「經濟成長率」、「貸款利率」與「建物面積」影響。 (2) 當家戶單位所得越高，其房貸負擔越不容易受經濟變數影響。 (3) 銀行核貸條件顯著影響所得較低者之房貸負擔。 (4) 第三所得分位之房貸負擔風險相對其他分位數高。本研究亦提出以下三點建議： (1) 縮短不動產交易實價查詢資料更新時間，使實價登錄價格得以更即時反應。 (2) 續辦理政策性優惠房貸，依區域房價差異彈性調整申貸額度，(3) 針對確實換屋者有條件調整其適用利率，調整購屋補貼息。以期改善未來購屋者之房貸負擔，緩解台北市家戶房貸壓力。 / Housing price in Taiwan has risen for the past decade; Taipei City even reached historical high record in 2014. The burden of the mortgage, which is part of future cash out, becomes more stressful under such circumstance. For household units, the solvency of mortgage could directly impact their quality of life. This study would like to use macroeconomic factors to measure the impact of household mortgage affordability in Taipei metropolitan. This study would observe the relationship between income and household mortgage affordability under the same macroeconomic factors.
This study uses affordability at risk published by Gan and Hill (2009), calculating household mortgage affordable risk by actual mortgage amount and affordable mortgage amount. Given different income segmentation, this study would discuss the relationship between household mortgage affordable risk and macroeconomic factors under study period.
The empirical results show that "housing price", "economic growth rate", " interest rate" and "building area" have significant effects on household's mortgage affordable risk. The conditions of mortgage affect the mortgage affordable risk of lower income group more than upper income group. The more income the household have, the less significant variables they are affected. Furthermore, the third-income household takes the highest risk of mortgage affordability while the government developed policies in order to curb the housing price.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0103921053 |
| Creators | 蘇盈如 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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