The objective behind this study was to mathematically analyse, model and forecast the vital rates (mortality and fertility)
of Nepal. In order to attain this goal, the data have been converted into tables and analysed intensively using several
softwares such as Mocrosoft Excel, SPSS, Mathematica. The margin of error of data has been analysed. In Chapter 4, the
error and uncertainity in the data have been analysed using Bayesian analysis. The reliability of the data of Nepal has been
compared with the reliability of the data of Germany. The mortality and fertility conditions of Nepal have been compared
from two angles. Data on India (particularly north India) have provided comparison on the socio-economic grounds
whereas data on Germany(with accurate and abundant data) have provided comparison on the ground of data availability
and accuracy. Thus in addition to analysing and modeling the data, the regional behaviour has been studied. The limited and
defective data of Nepal have posed a challange at every stage and phase. Because of this very long term forecasting of
mortality could not be made. But the model has provided a lot of information on the mortality for the years for which the
data were lacking. But in the comming future, with new data at hand and with the new models developed here, it could be
possible to do long term projections. In the less developed world, rural and urban areas have a big impact on the mortality
and fertility of a country. The rural and urban effects on mortality and fertility have been studied individually. While
analyzing the mortality scene of Nepal, it has been observed that the mortality is decreasing. The decrease is slow, but it
reflects the advancement in medical facilities and health awareness. The fertility is also decreasing. There is a decrease in
the number of children per woman and per family. This decrease is more pronounced in the urban areas as compared to the
rural areas. This also reflects that the family planning programmes launched are showing results, particularly in urban
areas.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:uni-osnabrueck.de/oai:repositorium.ub.uni-osnabrueck.de:urn:nbn:de:gbv:700-2000092625 |
| Date | 26 September 2000 |
| Creators | Devkota, Jyoti U. |
| Contributors | Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Stadje, Prof. Dr. Horst Behnke, Prof. Dr. Suddhendu Biswas |
| Source Sets | Universität Osnabrück |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | doc-type:doctoralThesis |
| Format | application/gzip, application/gzip |
| Rights | http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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