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Challenges of Reforming the Welfare State

In the first part of this doctoral thesis we analyse changes in old-age income risk in Germany using micro-simulation model due to changes in employment patterns and institutional reforms. We focus on the statutory pension scheme and we analyse the old-age income risk of individuals as well as of households with respect to the skill level. Our findings help to clarify the risk of post-retirement poverty for specific household constellations We find that the risk of old-age poverty will increase for almost all new pensioners in 2020-2022 compared to new pensioners in 2004-2006. Due to the characteristics of a PAYG pension system, political decision-makers have to improve labour market participation, e.g. by support the improvement of skill level.

Moreover we take a closer look at the impact of the Hartz-Reforms on wages. We use panel data to estimate the effect of the structural break on wages and find strong evidence that the decrease in unemployment benefit lowered wages. Our findings show that the Hartz-Reform induced wage restraint and may also be partly responsible for the favourable labour market situation in Germany.

After analysing the effect of institutional reforms on old-age income and wage, we examine whether households adjust their savings behaviour to a change in their individual unemployment, income and health expectations. We use survey panel data on German household savings and expectations. The findings suggest, in contrast to the theory of textbook models, that a higher unemployment expectation significantly decreases the (short-term) saving rate. This result may be due to labour market legislation after the Hartz-Reforms.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:DRESDEN/oai:qucosa.de:bsz:14-qucosa-155127
Date25 November 2014
CreatorsArent, Stefan
ContributorsTechnische Universität Dresden, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Prof. Dr. Marcel Thum, Prof. Dr. Alexander Kemnitz
PublisherSaechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden
Source SetsHochschulschriftenserver (HSSS) der SLUB Dresden
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
Typedoc-type:doctoralThesis
Formatapplication/pdf

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