國家政策之制定須配合未來人口總數及其結構等特性，藉以達到提高國民福
祉的願景，因此各國均定期公佈人口推估(Population Projection)的結果，目前臺
灣官方人口推估為每兩年公布一次。人口推估主要考量三個要素：出生、死亡、
遷移，以國家層級而言，通常遷徙對未來人口的影響遠小於出生與死亡，所以過
去行政院經濟建設委員會的官方全國人口推估一般專注於出生與死亡。然而，各
國研究發現遷徙是小區域人口推估為最重要的因素，人口數愈少、影響程度有愈
大的傾向，但文獻中較缺乏臺灣內部遷移的研究。如能掌握臺灣小區域人口遷徙
的變遷，將能使政策因地制宜，有助地方政府提高推行政策的有效性，也是本研
究之目標。
由於缺乏完整的縣市、鄉鎮市區層級的詳細遷移資料，本研究以人口平衡公
式反推淨遷移人數，找出各地區的遷移特性後，代入人口變動要素合成法(Cohort
Component Method)，搭配屬於機率推估的區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)，推估小
區域的未來人口。關於出生及死亡的推估，過去研究發現使用區塊拔靴法用於小
區域的生育率（曹育欣，2012）及死亡率（金碩，2011），皆有不錯的推估結果。
本研究以臺北市為範例，討論區塊拔靴法在小區域遷徙人口數、年齡別遷徙人口
的推估效果，及是否適合運用在其他不同縣市。 / The population projection is used to provide information for the policy planning of governments. In Taiwan, the Council for Economic Planning and Development is in charge of the official population projection and it release projection results every two years. Basically, three factors are considered in population projection: birth, death, and migration. Since the migration has little impacts in country-level projection, many countries (including Taiwan) assume the future migration is zero or close to zero, and the focus of projection is usually on the birth and death. However, for the projection of small area (such as county- or township-level), past studies found that the effect of migration cannot be ignored. But, partly due to the limitation of migration data, there are not many studies explore the migration patterns of counties or townships in Taiwan.
In this study, we use the population records (births and deaths) and the population equation to derive the county-level records of internal migration in Taiwan. We use these data to explore the migration patterns of all counties in Taiwan, and then applying block bootstrap method to modify the county-level population projection. Note that, the block bootstrap is shown to be reliable in forecasting fertility (Tsao, 2012) and mortality (Jin, 2011) for small areas. In this study, we also use the Taipei City to demonstrate the population projection which includes the internal migration, and the result is promising.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0100354016 |
| Creators | 黃亭綺, Huang Ting-Chi |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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