This thesis is focused on the development of HIV/AIDS mortality in the world starting from the year 1990 and the main goal is estimating the possible future development of the number of inhabitants of the world and defined regions and the influence of HIV/AIDS on the number of inhabitants up to the year 2065. The possible number of HIV/AIDS deaths and people, who were not born because of HIV and AIDS, is computed up to this year. In the theoretical part of the thesis, the most important institutions, which include fight against HIV and AIDS as a part of ther programme, are presented. Natural history of HIV infection and the successes in the research of HIV vaccine are described. In the analytical part, the demographic reproduction of the population of the world and selected regions between years 1950 and 2010 is described, followed by population projection of the world and regions up to year 2065 using the cohort component method. The projection is created in four variants. The first one eliminates the HIV/AIDS mortality. The second one is the constant variant, which conserve the level of HIV/AIDS mortality from the year 2010 up to the year 2065. Last two variants, higher and lower, consider changing levels of HIV/AIDS mortality at time. According to the results of this population projection,...

國家政策之制定須配合未來人口總數及其結構等特性，藉以達到提高國民福 祉的願景，因此各國均定期公佈人口推估(Population Projection)的結果，目前臺 灣官方人口推估為每兩年公布一次。人口推估主要考量三個要素：出生、死亡、 遷移，以國家層級而言，通常遷徙對未來人口的影響遠小於出生與死亡，所以過 去行政院經濟建設委員會的官方全國人口推估一般專注於出生與死亡。然而，各 國研究發現遷徙是小區域人口推估為最重要的因素，人口數愈少、影響程度有愈 大的傾向，但文獻中較缺乏臺灣內部遷移的研究。如能掌握臺灣小區域人口遷徙 的變遷，將能使政策因地制宜，有助地方政府提高推行政策的有效性，也是本研 究之目標。 由於缺乏完整的縣市、鄉鎮市區層級的詳細遷移資料，本研究以人口平衡公 式反推淨遷移人數，找出各地區的遷移特性後，代入人口變動要素合成法(Cohort Component Method)，搭配屬於機率推估的區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)，推估小 區域的未來人口。關於出生及死亡的推估，過去研究發現使用區塊拔靴法用於小 區域的生育率（曹育欣，2012）及死亡率（金碩，2011），皆有不錯的推估結果。 本研究以臺北市為範例，討論區塊拔靴法在小區域遷徙人口數、年齡別遷徙人口 的推估效果，及是否適合運用在其他不同縣市。 / The population projection is used to provide information for the policy planning of governments. In Taiwan, the Council for Economic Planning and Development is in charge of the official population projection and it release projection results every two years. Basically, three factors are considered in population projection: birth, death, and migration. Since the migration has little impacts in country-level projection, many countries (including Taiwan) assume the future migration is zero or close to zero, and the focus of projection is usually on the birth and death. However, for the projection of small area (such as county- or township-level), past studies found that the effect of migration cannot be ignored. But, partly due to the limitation of migration data, there are not many studies explore the migration patterns of counties or townships in Taiwan. In this study, we use the population records (births and deaths) and the population equation to derive the county-level records of internal migration in Taiwan. We use these data to explore the migration patterns of all counties in Taiwan, and then applying block bootstrap method to modify the county-level population projection. Note that, the block bootstrap is shown to be reliable in forecasting fertility (Tsao, 2012) and mortality (Jin, 2011) for small areas. In this study, we also use the Taipei City to demonstrate the population projection which includes the internal migration, and the result is promising.

一個國家對全國人口有充分瞭解，方能依據國情制定適合的政策，地方發展更是如此，更須洞悉各地的人口結構，以善用有限的資源。台灣近年人口老化日益明顯，各縣市的老化速度及人口問題也不盡相同，若可獲得各地區未來的人口相關數值 (亦即人口推估)，當能減輕未來人口老化對台灣造成的衝擊。本文以縣市層級的人口推估，也就是小區域人口推估為研究目標，探討需注意的事項，尋找適合台灣地區的小區域推估方法。 本文整理小區域人口推估方法，並使用人口要素變動合成法 (Cohort Component Method)，以雲嘉兩縣、臺北市、澎湖縣為範例，測試縣市層級的人口推估。人口推估與生育、死亡、遷移三者的假設有密切關係，我們以死亡率為目標，比較不同模型的優劣，考慮的模型包括 Lee-Carter 模型、區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap)、篩網拔靴法 (Sieve Bootstrap) 以及泛函資料分析 (Functional Data Analysis) 中的主成份分析 (Principle Component Analysis)，以估計誤差為衡量方法優劣的標準。分析發現篩網拔靴法、區塊拔靴法、Lee-Carter 模型三者的結果較佳，因此在小區域推估中使用較簡便的區塊拔靴法。研究發現對小區域的人口推估而言，遷移假設扮演非常重要的角色，此與全國規模的人口推估結果截然不同。研究過程亦發現人口三要素對人口推估有明顯的影響，若假設三要素間互相獨立 (也就是傳統推估時的假設)，推估結果的預測區間遠小於三要素不獨立。 / The government can make policy according to the population change in this country, while the local government can develop their district by using their limited resources well after realizing the populaton structure. The population ageing is becoming more serious and being more different among every counties in Taiwan day by day. If we can get the relative numbers of population in the future (population projection), we can decrease the attack of population ageing for Taiwan. The aim of this paper is to find an appropriate method and some notations of small area population projection in Taiwan. The paper includes the summary of methods of small area population projection and the results by using cohort component method on three areas in Taiwan, YunLin & ChiaYi, Taipein City and PengHu. Population projection is highly related with birth, death and migration, hence we test the mortality rate by using several methods, Lee-Carter, block bootstrap, sieve bootstrap and principal component analysis of functional data analysis are included. We found that the result of sieve bootstrap, block bootstrap and Lee-Carter are much better than the others, therefore, we take block bootstrap which is much simpler than the other two to analysis the effect of birth, death and migration in population projection. The sutdy found that, in small area population projecton, migration plays an important role, which is totally different from the whole country population projection.

Selected Methodical Approaches to Regional Population Forecast: A case study in the South Bohemian Region Abstract The aim of this thesis is to introduce selected methodological approaches to population forecasts, focusing on the regional level and considering different lengths of time series. Specific procedures are applied to create a population forecast for the South Bohemian Region. In the theoretical part of this thesis, the stages of population forecasts processing are determined. The Cohort Component method with migration, which can be used to create population forecast, is characterized. Another part describes selected analytical models and functions for partial mortality, fertility and migration forecasts, including Indirect estimation of net migration. To extrapolate parameters, selected trending functions and the Box-Jenkins methodology are characterized in the part of the time series analysis. The analytical part of this thesis focuses on the creation of the South Bohemian Region forecast from short initial time series and long initial time series. From short initial time series, the partial forecast of mortality is analyzed by the Heligman-Pollard model, the partial forecast of fertility is analyzed by the Beta function and the partial forecast of migration is analyzed by 25%, 50% and 75%...

Moravskoslezský region population forecast to 2050 Abstract The main goal of this thesis is to calculate Moravskoslezský region population forecast to 2050 and show how future population growth will likely be in the next decades. It includes a detailed population development analysis which is an important part of this thesis. Moravskoslezský region is still one of the most populous regions of Czechia, despite of natural decrease and negative net migration in past 21 years (except 2007 and 2008). Based on the analysis, we can assume that population decline will continue in the future and population forecast results confirm this hypothesis. Declining population size will be followed by significant age-structure changes in population and progressive demographic ageing. From the perspective of future population development Moravskoslezský region will face brand new situations and related problems. Keywords: population forecast, Moravskoslezský region, analysis of population development, age structure, fertility, mortality, migration, regional development, cohort-component method