2000年以來臺灣中央政府公債由1.4兆元快速累積至5兆元以上，加上年金潛藏負債問題，引發國人擔心臺灣未來是否會發生主權債務危機，因此主權債務的影響與相關政策的採行成為現今關注與討論的重要議題。過去探討主權債務的文獻並未將日本、臺灣、希臘以及美國一起分析，本文旨分析比較日本、臺灣、希臘以及美國主權債務，進而發現：一、四個國家過去為了促進經濟成長，採擴張性財政政策，造成政府債務持續攀升，目前均採緊縮性財政政策；未來人口老化，將對各國財政產生進一步壓力，其中臺灣人口老化速度最快。二、以外債為主的國家，有對外債務需償還，一旦國內外經濟情勢變化，可能會面臨舉債困難，及國際投資人因信心不足，導致資金立即撤出，本國幣貶值問題。三、希臘政府債務以外債為主，債務風險較高，又因採用歐元，無法採用貨幣政策，只有財政政策可以用，易引發主權債務危機。日本以內債為主，所以日本政府債務達GDP兩倍以上，尚未發生主權債務危機。至於臺灣，目前無外債，與他國相較，政府債務占GDP比重尚低，發生違約可能性較同屬內債的日本低。而美國雖以外債為主，但美元是國際主要儲備貨幣，引發主權債務危機可能性也低。

此次的研究要是要探討人口老化是否會直接或間接影響儲蓄率升降，並且針對近18年來台灣20各縣市儲蓄率的變動來進行探討，利用文獻探討中所提及的各項解釋變數，再加入此次的重點人口老化這個變數來檢驗分析人口老化是否會影響儲蓄率的變動。

本文係針對我國人口老化的需求與問題進行檢視，以臺北市12區戶政事務所職員及中老年人為研究對象進行研究調查，旨在了解其因個人背景變項的不同，而對人口老化所造成的需求及問題看法差異性，並探討人口老化需求與問題間的相關性，並依研究結果對政府機關作出相關政策建議。 本研究以研究者自行編製之問卷量表作為研究工具，共發出680份問卷，回收有效問卷662份，所得之資料以SPSS for Windows Version 17.0統計軟體進行敘述性統計分析及t檢定、單因子變異數分析、事後檢定法及皮爾森積差相關統計分析，以獲得實證結果。 根據分析結果，研究發現如下： 一、在人口老化衍生問題各構面間，以照護資源問題得分最高。 二、在人口老化衍生需求各構面間，以生活規劃需求得分最高。 三、在個人背景變項中，對照護資源、環境及心理適應等問題有顯著差異。 四、在個人背景變項中，大部分對就業與長照保障及生活規劃等需求有顯著差異。 五、而在人口老化衍生問題與需求間有著顯著正相關。 / The present paper focuses on examining the demand and problem of population aging in Taiwan, conducting a research survey on employees of the 12 district household registration offices and middle-aged and elder persons in Taipei, with the intention of understanding the differences in views regarding demand and problem caused by population aging as a result of variations in personal background variables. In addition, the present paper also probes the relationship between demand and problem of population aging, making related policy suggestions to government authorities based on the results of the study. In the study, researchers used a questionnaire that they had compiled as the research tool, distributing 680 copies of the questionnaire in total and recovering 662 valid copies of the questionnaire. Using the SPSS for Windows Version 17.0 software, descriptive statistics, t-test, one-way ANOVA, post hoc tests, and Pearson’s product-moment correlation were carried out to analyze the data obtained in order to acquire empirical results. According to results of analyses, the findings were as follows: 1. Among the various dimensions of problem derived from population aging, the score for the care resources problem was the highest. 2. Among the various dimensions of demand derived from population aging, the score for the life planning need was the highest. 3. Among the personal background variables, significant differences were shown in problem like care resources, environment, and mental adjustment. 4. Among the personal background variables, the majority of them showed significant differences in demand like employment, long-term protection, and life planning. 5. Problem and demand derived from population aging demonstrated a significant positive relationship.

人口老化是中國當前面臨的最重要社會問題之一。它從何而來，又準備向哪裡去？ 本研究梳理了中國人口老化的歷史過程，以厘清當前老化問題的形成的根源。通過人口普查資料描述中國人口老化的程度與速度，揭示中國省際間老化的巨大差異。 配合形式人口分析，對人口老化的動力進行分解，探索出生率和死亡率是如何作用於人口年齡結構的，發現在當前的人口狀態下，出生率比死亡率對人口的老化的抑制作用更明顯，但長期來看，死亡率對老化的抑制作用將更有意義。 臺灣的人口老化較中國大陸而言起步更早，是中國大陸人口老化可能的發展方向。使用臺灣人口資料進行形式人口分析並與中國大陸進行比較，尋找兩岸人口老化之間的異同。 在數理人口分析的基礎上，檢討當前中國大陸的人口政策。結論是，現行政策過分強調出生率，而忽略了死亡率對於人口老化的抑制作用。未來處理人口老化最佳的方法是重新定義老人的概念以及充分調動被隱藏的老年勞動力。

本研究欲觀察人口老化與所得分配之關係，檢視人口老化對於所得分配之影響，而文中主要分別從「內政部統計年報」、「家庭收支調查表」、「人力統計資源年報」以及各縣市統計要覽獲得各種解釋變數，建立出台灣1998年至2005年總計8年台灣各縣市之資料，並且以各縣市之吉尼係數為被解釋變數，採用最小平方法之方式藉此觀察台灣各縣市所得分配與人口老化之關係。 根據實證結果發現，人口老化與所得分配為顯著並且呈現正相關，亦即當人口老化更加嚴重時，將會導致較大的吉尼係數，造成所得不均之惡化。 其他解釋變數為顯著者分別有：平均每人可支配所得、平均每人可支配所得平方項、婦女勞動參與率以及各區域變數，且除了平均每人可支配所得平方項為負相關外，其餘皆與吉尼係數為正相關，其中所得方面之變數顯示出台灣中存在著Kuznets曲線；婦女勞動參與率的擴張則會導致所得分配更加惡化；中部、南部以及東部地區相對於北部區域來說其所得分配之狀況皆較不平均。而其他解釋變數如社會福利變數、教育變數以及工業變數所得之結果皆不顯著，顯示上述三個變數對台灣各縣市所得分配之影響在本研究中無法確定。 / This research discusses the relationship between aging population and income distribution, and examines how the aging population affects income distribution. The independent variables were acquired from the Statistical Yearbook of the Interior, The Survey of Family Income and Expenditure, the Statistical Yearbook of Labor Force and the Statistical Yearbook from each twenty-three counties and cities in Taiwan to construct a data set from 1998 to 2005. Using the ordinary least squares method and choosing the gini coefficient as a dependent variable to observe the relationship between income distribution and aging population. According to the result of the empirical study, we discover that the effect of aging population is significant and has a positive relationship with income distribution. Income inequality is worse when the aging population increases. Other significant independent variables are disposable income per person, the square of disposable income per person, female labor participation rate and the regional dummy variables. Besides the square of disposable income per person, all variables have a positive relationship with the gini coefficient. In addition, the variable of income shows that Kuznets curve appears in Taiwan. The expansion of the female labor participation will cause the income distribution to change into inequality. Also the north region has the worst income distribution in Taiwan. The results of the social welfare variable, the education variable and the industry variable are insignificant so that in this article we can not observe how the three variables effect the income distribution in Taiwan.

本研究利用2000年的人口普查資料和2008年人力資源暨中老年人狀況調查，對於老人的分布狀況以及居住安排選擇進行分析，由於平均餘命的增加，70歲以上的老人人數也逐漸攀升，因此單就65歲以上的老人為研究對象可能過於籠統，因此本研究將老人群體分為65~74歲的「年輕老人」，75~84歲的「中年老人」以及85歲以上的「老老人」三個群體，本研究依據這樣的老人分類來看他們在空間分布狀況是否不同，以及在居住安排上是否有不一樣的選擇，在國內外的研究較少將老人空間分布和居住安排的選擇結合進行探討，而本研究者認為老人在空間分布和居住安排上的關聯性是相當強烈的，因此本研究試著連結老人的地理分布狀況與其居住安排來討論。本研究目的是從三個群體的老人來看影響他們在台灣地理分布上不同的因素，再從三個群體的老人在地理分布狀況的不同來探討居住安排選擇，最後從分布狀況和居住安排情況的分析結果與現今政府極力推廣的「在地老化」進行探討。 本研究主要假設為，老年人的健康狀況和年齡為最主要影響老人分布狀況不同的因素，使得在年輕老人的分布狀況是分散，而越到老老人階段時，其分布情形越趨於集中在台北、台中和高雄的趨勢；之後再依據三個老人群體的地理分布狀況，來推斷各群體老人因為受到年齡增長以及健康狀況衰退的關係不但分布情形改變，其居住安排的選擇也跟著變動，最主要是往都市地區與子女同住。從研究結果以及參照Litwak和Longino (1988)所歸納出的老人三階段遷徙，證實了健康狀況影響了老人分布狀況，是從分散逐漸往都市地區集中的趨勢，而老人分布情形的改變主要可能是為了往都市地區尋求子女的協助幫忙，因而與其同住。「在地老化」主要強調的是老人應在其社區中自然老化，然而依據本研究結果，台灣老人的分布以及居住安排的慣性上是與「在地老化」概念有所衝突的，因此在未來政府在推廣「在地老化」上是必須要注意且克服這樣的情況。

This study attempts to investigate the issues of aging population in the context of Singapore through metaphorical approach and the potential of tapping on the collaborative characteristics of a health service cloud computing system to meet the needs in elderly care, hence allowing active aging. The use of electronic health records (EHR) in various countries, particularly the meaningful use of EHR in USA is examined to understand its current features and usage. By employing conceptual mapping and blending of metaphorical study, the concepts in cloud computing are probed to gain better understanding on the characteristics of the technology. Similarly, with concepts drawn from an eco-system blended with concepts in a health service system, the characteristics of EHR and finally the characteristics of a health service cloud computing system are illustrated. With understanding in aging population, present usage of EHR and potential of cloud computing in Singapore, multi-methods research consisting of intensive interviews and archival document collations are employed. Triangulation amongst the datasets collated using open coding via ATLAS.ti resulted in 6 issues of concern in aging population pertaining to the Singapore context to arise, namely (i) primary care, (ii) familial support, (iii) awareness in health maintenance and transparency in information, (iv) improved efficiency and accuracy in healthcare with seamless transfer of care and (v) intermediate care and (vi) collaboration between stakeholders. Further analysis of the results draws up the possibilities for enhancing meaningful use of health service cloud computing system for active aging, which criteria are: (i) empowerment and ownership, (ii) sustainable homecare and (iii) seamless transfer of care. Finally, a conceptual mapping of health service cloud computing system and the criteria for effective aging give rise to a model framework that is set for active aging. / This study attempts to investigate the issues of aging population in the context of Singapore through metaphorical approach and the potential of tapping on the collaborative characteristics of a health service cloud computing system to meet the needs in elderly care, hence allowing active aging. The use of electronic health records (EHR) in various countries, particularly the meaningful use of EHR in USA is examined to understand its current features and usage. By employing conceptual mapping and blending of metaphorical study, the concepts in cloud computing are probed to gain better understanding on the characteristics of the technology. Similarly, with concepts drawn from an eco-system blended with concepts in a health service system, the characteristics of EHR and finally the characteristics of a health service cloud computing system are illustrated. With understanding in aging population, present usage of EHR and potential of cloud computing in Singapore, multi-methods research consisting of intensive interviews and archival document collations are employed. Triangulation amongst the datasets collated using open coding via ATLAS.ti resulted in 6 issues of concern in aging population pertaining to the Singapore context to arise, namely (i) primary care, (ii) familial support, (iii) awareness in health maintenance and transparency in information, (iv) improved efficiency and accuracy in healthcare with seamless transfer of care and (v) intermediate care and (vi) collaboration between stakeholders. Further analysis of the results draws up the possibilities for enhancing meaningful use of health service cloud computing system for active aging, which criteria are: (i) empowerment and ownership, (ii) sustainable homecare and (iii) seamless transfer of care. Finally, a conceptual mapping of health service cloud computing system and the criteria for effective aging give rise to a model framework that is set for active aging.

Aging becomes one of the urgent topics in Taiwan, therefore new product and services must be established in respond to this issue. In recent years, online social network have been one of the most accelerative business model spreading across internet. Facebook has been one of the most influential role model among all. An opportunity gap is identified within these two phenomenon. The present paper is to initiate an innovative business model on worldwide geographic social network – based on the target market of senior travelling demand. This innovative business model will be satisfying the discovered gap. The establishment of this innovation business model is based on the process of Innovation SCREW: (1) Search; (2) Combination; (3) Re-search, Re-Combination; (4) Experiment, Evaluation; (5) Work, Weigh. Through this framework, it brings to the possible establishment of this platform. In addition, by using of secondary datasets that lead to comprehend further to consumer behavior and market demand. As the result, based on this innovative platform, it is hoping to create a new online worldwide geographic social network that can improve services on senior’s travelling demand.

重大傷病是我國全民健保的主要特色之一，民國105年重大傷病領證人數為95萬6626人（約4%人口），但其醫療費用超過全國四分之一，且盛行率有逐年上升的趨勢（資料來源：衛生福利部中央健康保險署）。其中，癌症又為重大傷病的首位，佔了重大傷病發證數的49%，雖然癌症發生率每年僅些微上升，但因罹癌後死亡率也逐年下降，而且癌症發生率隨年齡而增加，預期癌症盛行率將隨人口老化而快速上升，醫療利用與支出亦會愈趨上升，加重健保財務的負擔。有鑑於癌症盛行率的增加，健保署於兩年前提高癌症病患換新卡的資格，於103年停發約1萬7000張癌症領證數，但追根究底的解決之道仍在於及早發現與治療，不僅可提昇國民健康，更可有效率使用醫療資源。 本文使用全民健康保險資料庫，以探討國人罹癌前後的健康狀況為目標。透過資料庫的就醫資料，包括重大傷病證明明細檔（HV）、重大傷病門診處方及治療明細檔（HV_CD）、承保資料檔（ID）、2005年百萬人抽樣檔之門診處方及治療明細檔（CD），套用大數據的資料分析方法，探討國人罹患癌症的相關特性。首先對癌症病患進行基本資料之分析，接著探討不同準則下在判定癌症發生與罹癌死亡人數之間的估算差異，整合HV與HV_CD兩個資料庫，選擇可信度較高的方式作為估算癌症發生率與罹癌死亡率的基礎。研究發現，以退保資訊判斷癌症患者是否死亡，錯誤率優於先前根據就醫記錄。本文研究希冀可供政府擬定癌症相關的醫療策略，提高癌症病患的就醫意願及治癒率，增進國人健康，並且有效控制健保支出。

近年來，隨著我國國民的壽命持續增長，人口老化愈加明顯。預期臺灣在2021年將進入人口零成長，2025年65歲以上人口比例也將超過20%（來源：國家發展委員會2014年人口推估）。人口老化帶來許多問題，如老年生活、醫療、以及長期照顧等需求，其中照顧需求與年齡正相關，預期需求將隨壽命延長而增加，需要及早規劃及因應，這也是今年通過長期照護法的原因。由於各國國情不同，對於長期照護的定義、補助及需求也不盡相同，有必要發展適用於臺灣特性的，推估長期照顧需求的所需之資源。重大傷病中的許多疾病與失能、甚至長期照護有關，由於全民健保實施至今已逾20年，重大傷病的認定標準及程序相對客觀、中立，受到民眾、學術、政府各界肯定。 有鑑於此，本文以全民健保資料庫的重大傷病資料庫為基礎，挑選八類引發長照的重大傷病，作為規劃長期照護保險的參考。本文以這些傷病的發生率、罹病後死亡率、罹病後存活率等，結合國發會所人口推估的結果，利用年輪組成法(Cohort Component Method)推估長期照顧的未來需求。研究發現：未來需求人口從2013年約10萬人，迅速增加至2060年的21萬人，增加速度相當快。而參考「長期照顧保險法」草案的給付內容，若聘請一名外籍看護每月20,000元計算，每人分擔將從2012年的$530元/月升至2060年的2,728元/月；若不調整保費且以隨收隨付計算，每人每月繳交400元長照保費，長照給付將從2012年每月13,353元降至2060年每月3,556元，由此可知壽命延長、人口老化將造成長照保險的財務問題。另外，本文考量的八項重大傷病較為保守，沒有加入老化、遺傳等因素的長照需求，預期將不足以因應實際需求，未來有必要引入商業保險來彌補社會保險的不足。 / In recent years, with the sustainable growth of the life expectancy in our country, population aging becomes more apparent. Taiwan’s population of ages 65 and over will exceed 20% within 10 years, before 2025. (Source: National Development Council - Population Projection on 2014). The population aging an prolonging life incurs a big demand for caring the elderly, such as the economic need after the retirement, medical cost, and long-term care. Among these needs, the demand of long term care was under-estimated and is only recognized recently. Thus, this study focuses on predicting the need of long-term care in Taiwan. Specifically, the definition and standard (as well as types and amounts of subsidy) for juding whether one needs long-terma care is not yet determined, although Taiwan’s government passed the long-term care law (Long-Term Care Insurance Law) earlier this year. We should adapt the notion of catastrophic illness (CI) and use certain CI categories, which are related to long-term care, to design the long-term care insurance. Catastrophic illness (CI) is one of the key features of Taiwan’s National Health Insurance (NHI), and the definition and process of evaluating if one is with the CI is quite complete. We choose eight categories of CI and use the NHI database to obtain their incidence rates, mortality rates, and survival probability. Together with the population projection from National Development Council in 2014 and the cohort component method to predict the long-term care demand in Taiwan. The syudy result shows that the population needing long-term care will rise from about 100 thousands in 2013 to about 210 thousands in 2060. Moreover, if the long-term care insurance is funded via pay-as-you-go, the individual premium required will rise 5 times from 2012 to 2060. This indicates that the long-term care might be too expensive and the commercial insurance can play an important role as a supplement.