一個國家對全國人口有充分瞭解，方能依據國情制定適合的政策，地方發展更是如此，更須洞悉各地的人口結構，以善用有限的資源。台灣近年人口老化日益明顯，各縣市的老化速度及人口問題也不盡相同，若可獲得各地區未來的人口相關數值 (亦即人口推估)，當能減輕未來人口老化對台灣造成的衝擊。本文以縣市層級的人口推估，也就是小區域人口推估為研究目標，探討需注意的事項，尋找適合台灣地區的小區域推估方法。
本文整理小區域人口推估方法，並使用人口要素變動合成法 (Cohort Component Method)，以雲嘉兩縣、臺北市、澎湖縣為範例，測試縣市層級的人口推估。人口推估與生育、死亡、遷移三者的假設有密切關係，我們以死亡率為目標，比較不同模型的優劣，考慮的模型包括 Lee-Carter 模型、區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap)、篩網拔靴法 (Sieve Bootstrap) 以及泛函資料分析 (Functional Data Analysis) 中的主成份分析 (Principle Component Analysis)，以估計誤差為衡量方法優劣的標準。分析發現篩網拔靴法、區塊拔靴法、Lee-Carter 模型三者的結果較佳，因此在小區域推估中使用較簡便的區塊拔靴法。研究發現對小區域的人口推估而言，遷移假設扮演非常重要的角色，此與全國規模的人口推估結果截然不同。研究過程亦發現人口三要素對人口推估有明顯的影響，若假設三要素間互相獨立 (也就是傳統推估時的假設)，推估結果的預測區間遠小於三要素不獨立。 / The government can make policy according to the population change in this country, while the local government can develop their district by using their limited resources well after realizing the populaton structure. The population ageing is becoming more serious and being more different among every counties in Taiwan day by day. If we can get the relative numbers of population in the future (population projection), we can decrease the attack of population ageing for Taiwan. The aim of this paper is to find an appropriate method and some notations of small area population projection in Taiwan.
The paper includes the summary of methods of small area population projection and the results by using cohort component method on three areas in Taiwan, YunLin & ChiaYi, Taipein City and PengHu. Population projection is highly related with birth, death and migration, hence we test the mortality rate by using several methods, Lee-Carter, block bootstrap, sieve bootstrap and principal component analysis of functional data analysis are included. We found that the result of sieve bootstrap, block bootstrap and Lee-Carter are much better than the others, therefore, we take block bootstrap which is much simpler than the other two to analysis the effect of birth, death and migration in population projection. The sutdy found that, in small area population projecton, migration plays an important role, which is totally different from the whole country population projection.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0097354015 |
| Creators | 陳政勳 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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