提撥原則是固定給付退休基金所必須特別重視的經營策略，提撥率為基金贊助者定期提撥於未來成員退休給付的準備金。過高的提撥率會造成基金管理上的財務壓力，退休金計劃採行相對提撥方式，將同時加重基金贊助者與基金成員的財務負擔，而過低的提撥率則會造成退休給付的準備金不足，將使退休基金未來面臨無力清償成員退休給付的困境，因此適當且長期穩定的提撥原則成為退休基金決策者的經營目標，而必須特別重視基金的財務風險管理。
本研究著重於探討如何數量化退休基金經營的穩定性與安全性，陳述隨機控制理論的觀點，應用動態規劃的發展結果，建立基金於離散時間的動態回饋控制模型，仔細探討並說明Haberman與Sung (1994)及Chang (1999a)所定義基金管理者的風險測度，使退休基金最主要的兩種經營風險，亦即提撥穩定性的風險（contribution rate risk）和財務清償的風險（solvency risk）能夠於基金財務規劃的期限內達到最小值，風險測度可提供決策者客觀衡量基金經營時的風險指標，表達有別於會計帳面之財務數字外有效的財務資訊。利用最適化的概念與給定參數及遞迴條件的限制下，計算基金於財務規劃期間內的最適提撥金額。
最後，我們以台灣公務人員退撫基金為研究對象進行數值分析，由實例分析的流程我們詳細探討最適化理論與實際財務評估的應用過程，且最適的結果可以提供退休基金決策者更詳盡且及時的財務資訊，輔助退休基金管理者於多期決策的擬定過程。 / Funding policy is the crucial management decision in the defined benefit pension schemes. The plan sponsor is required to calculate the contribution rate and accumulate in advance as he reserve for the future contingent retirement and ancillary obligations for the plan members. High contribution results an accelerating financial burden for the plan sponsor, while low contribution might endanger the financial solvency of the plan. The appropriate and stable contributions become the goal of the plan manager in setting up his funding policy. Hence financial risk management in attaining the goal is especially vital to be examined.
The study emphasizes on quantifying the mismanage risks in pension valuation. The stability and solvency issues are included in our financial risk management. Stochastic control is also reviewed and the methodology of the dynamic programming is explored. The performance measure proposed in Haberman and Sung (1994) and Chang (1999a) are employed to scrutinize the contribution rate risk and solvency risk. The risk measurement can provide extra information in disclosing the risk index for the plan sponsor. The results gain operative information besides the traditional accounting reporting. The optimal contribution based on managerial consideration can be implemented through dynamic mechanisms under the given demographic and economic parameters and the plan recursive constraints.
Finally, Taiwan public employees retirement system (Tai-PERS) is illustrated to investigate the optimal results and funding levels through the proposed model. The optimal results can response the updated financial information and assist the plan manager in policy making under the multi-frameworks.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/A2002001737 |
| Creators | 何嘉綺 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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