2006年，中國大陸國務院將天津定位為北方經濟中心，天津的金融發展加速，金融機構家數及存貸款餘額不斷增加。當金融市場完善，有助降低交易成本使資金的融通管道暢通，居民可透過金融市場融通資金來從事更多消費，因此本研究目的為探討金融發展是否也是影響居民消費及恩格爾係數的因素。
本研究以金融深化程度及銀行效率指標兩項金融發展指標，來衡量天津的金融發展程度。實證結果顯示，短期下實質人均儲蓄、都市化程度對居民消費有負向影響；物價指數、實質人均GDP、實質人均可支配年收入與金融深化程度對居民消費有正向影響，銀行效率則對居民消費無影響；而長期下，實質人均儲蓄與都市化程度對消費有負向影響，物價指數、實質人均可支配年收入及銀行效率對消費有正向影響，金融深化程度及實質人均GDP則與居民消費無影響。
在恩格爾係數方面，短期下依賴比、實質人均可支配年收入對居民消費有負向影響；金融深化程度、都市化程度對居民消費有正向影響。長期下金融深化程度對恩格爾係數無影響，但銀行效率卻對恩格爾係數有正向影響。依賴比與實質人均可支配年收入呈負向關係，但金融發展程度與銀行效率對居民消費確實有促進作用。最後本研究建議天津政府除了積極促進消費的同時，也應致力於提高居民實質人均可支配年收入水準及提高銀行資金運用效率。 / In 2006, The State Council in China set Tianjin as the economic center in the northway of China., the financial development in Tianjin has speeded up. The numbers of the financial institutions and the balance of deposit and loan have risen up. When the financial market becomes mature that will reduce the transaction cost and consumers will have more financial accesses and opportunities to finance. Therefore, this paper is aimed to discuss whether the financial development is a factor that influence the consumption and Engel’s coefficient or not.
This paper used two financial development indicators to measure the financial development in Tianjin- Financial irrelevant ratio (FIR) ,and bank efficiency. The empirical results shows that real personal savings, and urbanization have negative influence on consumption whereas the price index, real GDP per capita, real personal disposal income and financial irrelevant ratio have positive influence on consumption and banking efficiency has no influence on consumption in the short run. In the long run, however, real personal savings and urbanization have negative influence on consumption but price index, real personal disposal income and banking efficiency have the positive influence on consumption. But financial irrelevant ratio and real GDP per capita have no influence on consumption.
In the Engel’s coefficient aspect, dependency ratio and real personal disposal income have negative influence. The Financial irrelevant ratio, urbanization and food price index have positive influence in the short run. In the long run, financial irrelevant ratio has no significant influence on Engel’s coefficient but banking efficiency has positive influence on consumption. Dependency ratio and real personal disposal income have negative influence on consumption. Therefore, this paper finds out that the FIR and the bank efficiency have pushed up the consumption in the short run and long run respectively. This paper recommends that the Tianjin’s government should not only to push up the consumption but also should be dedicated to raise up the personal disposal income and banking efficiency.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0099261020 |
| Creators | 蔣馥冰 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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