在過去，經濟研究的議題著重於如何發揮生產效率的極大化或是消耗資源的極小化。然而自工業革命後，隨著經濟的快速成長，環境的改變已嚴重威脅到人類的生存，使得人們在追求經濟成長的同時必須停下腳步，關心環境的永續經營與發展。天津是中國最大的沿海開放城市之一，2012年3月英國經濟學人訊息部（EIU）公布調查報告，天津市的經濟競爭力居全球之冠；另一方面，自2006年起天津市成為中國國家環境保護模範城市之一。鑑於天津市在經濟增長以及環境保護方面的具體成果，是以本文希望透過對天津市經濟發展和環境保護模式的研究，藉由現有文獻中探討影響經濟成長之環境決定因素，特別是針對與天津市同質性較高的中國各省、直轄市的狀況去探討經濟成長與環境保護間的關係，再藉由天津市改革開放後的實證模型分析，理論與實務交叉比對，逐一檢驗天津市經濟成長及本研究參數假設，期望藉由模型分析經濟成長和環境保護能否共存。將實證結果形成具體政策與建議，提供學術研究與政府單位做為參考。

彭華民. / 呈交日期: 2005年11月. / 論文(哲學博士)--香港中文大學, 2006. / 參考文獻(p. 246-261). / Cheng jiao ri qi: 2005 nian 11 yue. / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts in Chinese and English. / Lun wen (zhe xue bo shi)--Xianggang Zhong wen da xue, 2006. / Can kao wen xian (p. 246-261). / Peng Huamin.

李淨昉. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 205-219) / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts in Chinese and English. / Li Jingfang.

中國大陸自1978年確定改革開放政策，天津自改革開放初期的經濟發展面對資金和技術不足的問題。1990年末期，因為外商企業在天津長期投資，對天津產業技術提升及企業管理發揮積極作用，使天津市擠身中國大陸最吸引外來投資之地區之一。1992年鄧小平南巡再次確認中國大陸積極對外開放政策後，天津之外來投資呈現倍數之高度成長。2010年度，天津之外來投資金額更是突破百億美元大關。本文之研究目的冀討論天津在1990年第至2010年，影響各國家地區對天津投資之決定因素。本文採用天津此1990年至2010年累計最高投資金額之前九個國家地區之資料，利用固定效果模型估計，結果顯示決定因素有相對實質匯率、相對每人國內生產毛額、工資率及時間趨勢，另外各國家地區對於天津之地理距離透過分析亦可知其自發性投資呈現負相關。為降低實證模型發生錯誤，將各種統計量之檢定方法加以檢定，皆獲得通過。 / China has adopted and confirmed the so-called Open Door Policy since 1978. Tianjin faced the shortage of capital and technology in the early period of the implement of the Policy. However, in the end of 1990, Tianjin became one of the most attracting foreign investment cities in China because the foreign direct investment had played an important role and positively influenced industries upgrade and business management in the city. The amount of foreign direct investment in Tianjin has a high speed growth after Deng Xiaoping’s southern trip in 1992 to confirm the determination of China’s open door policy again. In 2010, the amount of foreign direct investment in Tianjin was impressively over ten billion US dollars. The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment from different countries and districts in Tianjin from 1990 to 2010. The study adopted fixed-effect model to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment in Tianjin with the top nine countries and districts in the period of 1990 to 2010. The results revealed relative currency rate, relative GDP per capita, relative wage rate and time trend are the most important factor in attracting foreign direct investment in Tianjin in the period. Another result showed the geographical distance has a negative relationship to foreign direct investment in Tianjin by fixed effect analysis. In order to reduce the occurrence of mistakes, the model and result results also have been tested through related tests methods.

依據天津市於改革開放後（1978年~2010年）農業投入產出資料建立了隨機邊界生產函數模型，並對天津農業生產效率進行了測算和分析。研究結果發現天津的農業增長主要依賴流動資本的投入，另因天津市地理環境因素，溫度高低及降雨量多寡在農業生產效率中也具有關鍵影響力，農業生產技術效率水準隨時間增加有逐漸提升趨勢，政府財政支農及農業貸款的數字逐年提升，但研究結果顯示政府財政支農金額及農業貸款對於天津農業生產效率無影響。 / Based on the agricultural input and output data from Tianjin City after the reform and opening (1978~2010), a random marginal productivity function model was built. And tests and analyses regarding the agricultural production efficiency in Tianjin City were performed. According to the research results, the agricultural growth in Tianjin City mainly depended on the input of current capital. In addition, due to the geographic and environmental factors in Tianjin City, temperature and rainfall both played an important role in the agricultural production efficiency. The agricultural production technology level had been increasing with time. The amounts of the government’s financial support for agriculture and agricultural loans had been increasing year by year. However, the research results show that these amounts had no influence on the agricultural production efficiency in Tianjin City.

1978年中國大陸改革開放，吹皺經濟市場一池春水。住房公有制、住房福利制觀念相繼被打破，揭開房產制度改革曙光。鄧小平在1992年南巡講話後，定調「有中國特色社會主義市場經濟」的基本路線，從根本上解決市場經濟意識形態問題，自此中國大陸房地產市場活水澈底被激發。近十餘年來，中國大陸全國商品房平均價格從2000年2,112元人民幣，攀升至2010年5,032元人民幣，部分重點城市如北京、上海、廣州..等更早已突破萬元人民幣大關。 房產市場不對稱發展加深中國大陸社會結構性矛盾與衝突對立，高房價顯然無益其國內經濟健全發展，這也讓大陸中央不得不正視此一嚴肅問題積極採取宏觀調控手段，企圖壓制漲勢不斷的房價期能消彌廣大民怨。而與之同時因為覬覦中國大陸經濟高速發展背後廣大利益而競相投入中國市場的外資也就格外引起大陸政府的關注，因為「外資炒房」的傳言與疑慮一直困擾著中共當局，在高房價、高民怨的氛圍壟罩下，產官學界檢討外資聲浪甚囂塵上；然而，高房價的背後是否一定有外資刻意炒作？值得探究與思考。 本研究嘗試以中國大陸天津做為觀察標的，運用共整合ARDL模型探討外商直接投資（FDI）對房地產價格波動的影響，釐清外資在房地產價格所扮演的角色。實證模型並納入物價指數（CPI）、人均收入（INC）、貸款利率（INT）、匯率（EXC）與股價（STOCK）為解釋變數，以做為觀察總體經濟因素對大陸房地產市場的影響。實證結果表明，在短期關係上外資的確有拉抬房價效果，不過長期關係影響並不顯著，顯示外資不是實際推升房地產價格的主因，角色定位應為「從犯」而非「主嫌」。研究結果並發現，匯率變動對房地產價格有著顯著實質影響，這意味如果大陸政府要運用匯率這項工具來抑制漲勢不斷的房價，就必須讓人民幣適時升值。不過目前中國大陸仍屬以出口導向為大宗的國家，長期而言，人民幣升值將對其出口造成某種程度衝擊，是以在匯率政策的操作上恐陷入兩難（升值或貶值)的困境。 / The reform and opening in mainland China in 1978 had fretted the surface of the water of the economic market. The concepts of public housing and housing welfare system had been broken, leading to a line of hope in the reform of the house property system. After Xiaoping Deng's speech during his south tour, he set up the basic route of the "socialism market economy with Chinese features", resolving the market economy ideology issue from the root. Since then, the house property market in Chine has been activated. In the recent decade, the average price of commercial residential buildings had increased from YMB$2,112 in 2000 to YMB$5,032 in 2010. In major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, the prices had already went over YMB$10,000. The asymmetric development of the house property market has further caused structural conflicts and confrontations in Mainland China. Apparently, high housing prices were not beneficial to the sound development of the domestic economy. And thus the central government in Mainland China had to face up to this serious problem and aggressively took the microscope controlling measure in the attempt to suppress the increasing housing prices to resolve people's complaints. In the mean time, under the desire for the great profits behind the rapid development of the economy in Mainland China, foreign funds had entered the Chinese market one by one, getting some extra attention of the Chinese government. Because the rumor of "foreign funds in real estate speculation" and some doubles had continuously bothered the Chinese government, under the atmosphere with high housing prices and high social grievance, requests for reviewing foreign funds in the industrial, governmental, academic, and research circles were very broad. However, whether there was real estate speculation with foreign funds behind high housing prices is worth thinking and studying. Using Tianjin City in Mainland China as a target for observation, this study attempted to apply the autoregressive ARDL model to explore the influences of foreign direct investment (FDI) on price changes in housing property, in order to clarify the role foreign funds play in real estate prices. The independent variables included in the model were consumer price index (CPI), per capita income (INC), loan interest (INT), exchange rate (EXC), and stock price (STOCK), in order to observe the influences of the macro economical factors on the Chinese real estate market. According to the empirical results, in the short run, foreign funds could indeed drive up housing prices. However, in the long run, the influence was not significant. This means foreign funds are not the main cause driving up real estate prices. The role they played was a "partner in crime" instead of a "main suspect". The study found that there was indeed a significant and substantial influence of exchange rate changes on real estate prices, meaning that if the Chinese government would like to surprise increasing housing prices using exchange rates as a tool, it is necessary to allow YMB appreciation. However, currently, Mainland China is still a country with mainly exports. In the long run, YMB appreciation may lead to certain impact on China's exportation. Therefore, operating exchange rate related policies may lead to a dilemma (to appreciate or depreciate).

本論文利用超穩定機器的概念，用以解釋天津城市成長轉型的路徑選擇，三個觀察的指標包括支柱產業的選擇、土地政策的更迭以及行政區劃的調整成果。既有針對中國大陸城市治理的文獻概以成長機器作為主軸。但本文認為，受政績誘因以及中央地方關係制約下的初始條件影響，1980年代的天津以超穩定機器而非成長機器的方式運作，具體運作面向包括漸進的經濟改革、具福利性質的土地使用政策以及對外資的保守與防範。事實證明，當時建立的產業發展方向、土地運用制度與城市內部行政體制，對於天津今天在加速經濟增長階段仍然具有相當的影響力。天津經濟轉型過程中呈現的路徑依賴特質，也突顯出地方政府從超穩定機器邁向成長機器轉型的過程中，實際上涉及了學習與轉化的考驗。 / This dissertation aims to identify the patterns of urban transition in China that uses Tianjin as a specific case. In order to illustrate my argument, an analytical approach that combines path dependence and pro-stability machine is employed. Existing literature that attempts to explore the dynamics of urban development in China has been made predominantly on the basis of the “growth machine” model, which takes the growth of cities as a result of interaction among some internal urban-based players for pecuniary gains and property development. Yet, I argue that Tianjin as a pro-stability machine in the 1980s and the story background was bounded by the official’s incentive of promotion and initial provincial conditions backed by the central government influences. This dissertation identifies three core issues in relation to the pro-stability machine, including: incremental reform in economic area, welfare implication in land use policies and conservative attitude toward foreign forces. Such issues associated with challenges of rapid urban growth in Tianjin today: the selection of pillar industries, reforming land policies and drastic administrative restructuring in Binhai New Area. This dissertation argues that Tianjin’s experience significantly highlights difficulties faced with local governments when they confront with the ‘path dependency’ dilemma in economic transition. The Tianjin government has to not only adjust itself to the roles shifted from a pro-stability machine to a developmental machine but also deal with the accompanied challenges of learning and transformation. It seeks to fill the gap in the existing literature that pays scant attention to the urban renewal experience in Tianjin as a traditionally significant developmental center in north China. This dissertation, therefore, will make important contribution in two aspects. First, it will shed light on the institutional reform process in Tianjin that is critical to the developmental catch-up of the city. Second, it will offer a fresh insight into the debates upon the urban development models in contemporary China.

天津經過百年來的努力發展，以及改革開放後濱海新區在「十一五規劃」被納入國家發展戰略，不但成為中國大陸高收入的城市，亦是眾多外資亟欲前往的投資地點。從天津三級產業結構的觀察，可以發現雖然目前天津的第二、三級產業的分布仍與先進國家有所落差，但整體來說，仍是逐漸從二三一的產業結構往三二一的產業結構發展。但1997年至2006年仍發生工業化現象，即工業部門產值比重增加。這段時間亦伴隨產業升級，使得產業結構從消費財產業轉成為資本財產業。由政策上觀察，此結果主要與天津濱海新區的發展關係最密切。 從本研究的ARDL時間序列模型的估計中發現，造成天津工業化的最主要因素為資本勞動比的提升與貿易依存度的增加，而造成產業升級的主要因素則為外資與財政的科技支出。天津政府在經濟迅速發展的條件下，調節產業結構的均衡發展亦是重要任務，使得天津以及中國大陸其他城市能夠早日進入已開發國家的產業結構模式。 / After centuries of efforts to develop and the Binhai New Area being writing into national development strategies in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" after reform and open-up, Tianjin has not only become the high-income cities in mainland China, but also a location that many foreign investment is anxious to go. According to the observation of Thrice Industrial structure in Tianjin, there is a big gap that the distribution of Tianjin’s secondary and tertiary industry with compared with other advanced countries. However, on the whole, there is still a gradual shift from the industrial structure of two-three-one to three-two-one. From 1997 to 2006, there is still a phenomenon of industrialization in Tianjin, which means that the percentage of secondary industry increasing the whole industrial sectors’ GDP. It’s also accompanied with industrial upgrading, which means that industrial structure will turn from consumer goods industries to capital property industries. From the prospect of policy, this result is most closely related to the development of the Tianjin Binhai New Area. By using ARDL time series model, this study estimates found that the most important factor of Tianjin industrialization was the capital-labor ratio improvement and the increase of trade dependence. The main factor of causing the industrial upgrading was the foreign investment and finance spending on technology. Under the rapid economic development, adjusting the industrial structure for balanced development is also Tianjin Government’s important task that could help Tianjin and other cities in mainland China as early as possible to enter the mode of development of the country's industrial structure.

昔天津的經濟發展都落後於在中國內地的其他一些城市，提到天津，人們往往聯想到，她只是北京光環下的一個毗鄰城市。為了在經濟成長中保持天津經濟的穩定增長，天津採取了吸引大規模工業建設項目的發展策略，再加上近年濱海新區的蓬勃發展，不僅讓該區的經濟表現成績亮眼，也進而讓天津此一城市向國際化大都市腳步邁進。 再者，地處環渤海經濟圈沿海區位之天津濱海新區對其經濟發展推動也著實重要，主因係大陸將開發天津濱海新區納入國家十一五規劃和國家發展戰略，並批准濱海新區成為國家綜合配套改革試驗區，相關重大工業項目都相繼落戶於濱海新區，進而促使天津濱海新區成爲國家級新區中發展最爲迅速的新區，所以本研究係從文獻探討回顧探討影響天津經濟發展的決定因素，並利用樣本資料與實證模型來推估假設變數與天津經濟成長率之間的關係與影響程度，俾利提供學術上與實務上濱海新區在天津經濟發展中所扮演角色之參考。

本文為探討天津市政府所轄各區縣之地方效率，並找出影響該地方效率之因素為何，首先針對有關天津政府效率之評估指標、財政分權程度之衡量及天津政府效率相關政策之文獻進行回顧，同時整理天津市所轄各區縣可能影響效率相關因素之發展現況，藉以取得適當變數，接著本研究將設計實證模型並進行假設，包含各項資料蒐集與整理，在利用資料包絡分析法(DEA)加以評估獲得天津市所轄各區縣之地方政府效率值後，並以TOBIT迴歸模型衡量相關因素對其效率之影響情況。 最後，本研究發現，對於天津市政府所轄各區縣之地方政府效率影響，其中以物價上漲程度、時間趨勢變數均屬負向變數。而財政分權程度、地方政府規模、經濟發展程度、開放程度則均為正向變數。而財政分權程度、地方政府規模均非屬單調性變數，表達該變數所影響效率狀態將非必然為單向相關，當程度或規模有所變化，其影響也可能將隨之化作反向影響。另外，就天津市所轄各區縣在2008至2010年政府效率之表現，以和平、河東、河西、南開、河北、北辰、濱海新區等7區有較高之政府效率，可期未來將更有突出發展。