This thesis studies group threat theory and contact theory, by analysing whether a change in the exposure to refugees, following a demographic composition shift, results in increased or decreased political support for parties with either an anti- or a pro-immigration political program. It employs a continuous difference-in-difference method by analysing data from Swedish national elections in 2014 and 2018 across all municipalities, combined with the electoral performance of the Sweden Democrats and the Swedish Green Party. The findings reveal a positive correlation between increased refugee intake and the electoral support for the Sweden Democrats, while the Swedish Green Party experiences decreased support. This suggests a trend toward bolstered backing for anti-immigrant platforms in areas with greater refugee exposure, and thus also supports arguments presented within group threat theory. While intergroup contact with immigrants is a well-studied area, limited attention has been devoted to refugee immigration. Finally, this thesis underscores the need for further investigation of the political and social ramifications of increased refugee immigration on native populations. This holds strong political relevance, as we are likely to continue experiencing high levels of immigration. A suggested way to build off this thesis is by studying the relevant mechanisms, or by establishing the extent and type of experienced intergroup contact.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:uu-530117 |
| Date | January 2024 |
| Creators | Persson, Elin |
| Publisher | Uppsala universitet, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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