自1970年代開始，美國國防部為了因應長期軍事規劃不足之處，而發展出一套名為「淨評估」(Net Assessment)的分析技術，最初是針對當時的蘇聯以及華沙公約組織，以進行軍事能力的評估分析，然而，隨著歷史的演變，軍事作為主要保障國家安全的要素固然不變，但有更多的領域逐漸受到人們的重視，所以淨評估觀念發展至今，已大為擴張，舉凡科技、政治、經濟、社會、意識形態，甚至疾病等足以影響到整個國家興衰的因素，都應是淨評估分析的目標。1990年之後國際能源短缺問題甚為嚴重，許多衝突雖未以爭奪能源為名，但究其根本，仍是為了各國日益短缺的生存命脈，因此能源的競逐似乎已成未來國與國間最為激烈的導火線，而就台灣來說，對外能源的依賴度達到98%以上，在亞太局勢愈趨險峻、台海衝突一觸及發的當下，如何擬定一套能源戰略，實為迫在眉睫，本文便以淨評估的角度，對台灣能源戰略環境進行全面性的診斷與機會探索，試圖回答以下的問題：(一)目前台灣在能源戰略環境中所面臨之態勢；(二)在如是能源戰略環境下的演變趨勢與預測。 / Since the 1970s, in order to cope with the defective plan of military for a long time, US DOD develops one set of analytical technology － Net Assessment. At first, it used to the Former Soviet Union and WTO assessment analysis of carrying on military ability. Doubtless, an essential factor of the military affairs is the guarantee national security. However, more fields are paid attention to by people gradually. The concept of the Net Assessment, therefore, is society, ideology, even the diseases are enough to influence the rise and fall of the nation, there are all targets that the Net Assessment should analyze.
The international energy shortage is a very serious problem after the 1990s. Although many conflicts between the countries are not fighting for the energy, to get bottom of an affair, for lifeblood in short day by day in each country. Therefore the energy competition seems to be the direct cause of the fight/ conflict between countries in future.
As to Taiwan, Dependence on imported energy is up to 98%. At the moment the relationship in the Asia Pacific is more and more tense. Besides, the conflict of the Taiwan Straits can be happened any time. How to draft a set of energy strategy is an extremely urgent mission.
The author used the Net Assessment point to write this article. Focus on comprehensive diagnosis and chance to explore to Taiwan energy's strategic environment; moreover, try to find out the following questions. First, the posture Taiwan faces in the energy strategy environment at present. Second, the trend of evolvement and prediction is under the energy strategy environment.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0922530231 |
| Creators | 徐子軒 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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