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Previous issue date: 2017-07-28 / A vulnerabilidade externa da economia brasileira, tema principal deste trabalho, pode
ser analisada em v?rias perspectivas. Nesta pesquisa, observamos a vulnerabilidade
externa sob a ?tica de diversos indicadores, mas com ?nfase na Posi??o de Investimento
Internacional (PII) durante o per?odo 1995-2016, dando ?nfase principal a influ?ncia dos
pre?os dos ativos (taxa ak) sobre a PII. Os resultados encontrados apontam que a taxa
Ak influenciou de forma majorit?ria a varia??o da Posi??o de Investimento
Internacional, contribuindo para uma redu??o na vulnerabilidade externa da economia
brasileira quando positiva. Contudo, a vulnerabilidade externa n?o deve ser analisada
apenas pela ?tica da PII. Por isso, analisamos diversos ?ndices de vulnerabilidade
externa, no qual constatamos bons resultados em rela??o ao ?mbito de liquidez externa,
refletindo uma melhora na vulnerabilidade externa sobre a quest?o conjuntural.
Entretanto, observando os ?ndices de vulnerabilidade externa pelo ?mbito da solv?ncia
externa evidenciando resultados ruins, caracterizando uma piora na vulnerabilidade
estrutural na economia brasileira. Observamos ainda ?ndices de vulnerabilidade em dois
per?odos distintos (1995 ? 2002 e 2003 ? 2006), percebemos no per?odo 1995 ? 2002
que os ?ndices de vulnerabilidade apresentaram resultados ruins tanto na quest?o da
solv?ncia como no da liquidez externa. Em rela??o aos ?ndices no per?odo 2003 ? 2006
observamos resultados melhores em rela??o ? liquidez externa. / The external vulnerability of the Brazilian economy, the main theme of this work, can
be analyzed in several perspectives. In this research, we observed the external
vulnerability from the perspective of several indicators, but with an emphasis on the
International Investment Position (IIP) during the period 1995-2016, with emphasis on
the influence of asset prices (ak) on the IIP. The results show that the ak rate influenced
in a majority way the variation of the International Investment Position, contributing to
a reduction in the external vulnerability of the Brazilian economy when positive.
However, the external vulnerability should not be analyzed only from the perspective of
the IIP. Therefore, we analyzed several indices of external vulnerability, in which we
verified good results in relation to the external liquidity scope, reflecting an
improvement in the external vulnerability on the conjunctural issue. At the same time,
observing the external vulnerability indices by the scope of the external solvency
evidencing bad results, characterizing a worsening in the structural vulnerability in the
Brazilian economy. We also observed vulnerability indexes in two different periods
(1995-2002 and 2003-2006). In the period 1995-2002, vulnerability indexes presented
poor results on both solvency and external liquidity issues. In relation to the indices in
the 2003-2006 period, we observed better results in relation to external liquidity.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:repositorio.ufrn.br:123456789/24278 |
| Date | 28 July 2017 |
| Creators | Aguiar, Marckson Byan Medeiros |
| Contributors | 15842948842, Biancarelli, Andr? Martins, 27489435897, Leite, Fabricio Pitombo, 79339328515, Louren?o, Andr? Luis Cabral de |
| Publisher | PROGRAMA DE P?S-GRADUA??O EM ECONOMIA, UFRN, Brasil |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Source | reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRN, instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, instacron:UFRN |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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