Background: The present study was conceived to examine the trend and factors affecting fertility in Nigeria and Guinea. Fertility has declined by about nineteen percent in Nigeria between 1982 and 1999. In the same period it has declined by five percent in Guinea. The decline is observed in data from censuses and surveys. Studies have reported that fertility transition is in progress in most Sub-Sahara African countries (Bongaarts 2008; Guttmacher 2008), Nigeria (Feyisetan and Bankole 2002) and Guinea (measuredhs 2007). Studies and surveys done in some regions and among ethnic groups suggest that fertility is declining in Nigeria (Caldwell et al. 1992) and Guinea (measuredhs 2007). However, these studies and
surveys are devoid of national representativeness as they are localized in specific regions or selected ethnic groups. Thus, they cannot be used as a national reference. The trend of the total fertility rate (TFR) from the three consecutive Demographic and Health Surveys in Nigeria did not show any meaningful decrease over time. In the same vein, no evidence of fertility decline was observed in Guinea from the Demographic and Health Surveys. The claim that fertility is declining in these two countries which assures the funding organizations that Family Planning programs are successful is beyond the scope of the present study. Based
on Demographic and Health Surveys the claim that fertility is decreasing in Nigeria may be misleading, whereas in Guinea fertility has shown stability. This suggests that while the factors affecting fertility may be similar, their impacts differ from country to country.Method: Data from the Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in Nigeria and in Guinea were used in the study. Trends in TFR by background were extracted from the censuses and DHS final reports in Nigeria and Guinea. Data from DHS 1999 and DHS 2003 in Nigeria and DHS 1999 and DHS 2005 in Guinea were used for the actual analysis. The sample sizes of 8199 and 7620 of DHS 1999 and 2003 respectively for all women aged 15 - 49 were included in Nigeria. The sample sizes for Guinea were 6753 and 7954 for DHS 1999
and 2005 respectively. The trends in knowledge and current contraceptive use, unmet needs,desires for last child, current pregnancy, visiting of health facility, visitation by family planning workers and respondent approval of Family Planning (FP) were examined by age groups. Univariate and bivariate analyses were executed to explain the association and determinants of contraceptive use by socio-demographic characteristics. Stepwise multinomial regression was carried out to determine the variables affecting total number of children ever born (TCB).Result: Total fertility rate has increased in Nigeria between 1990 and 2003 by background
characteristics. It has increased by eleven and fourteen percent in rural and urban residence respectively in Nigeria within the same interval. Fertility increased by thirteen and seventeen percent among women with primary and higher education respectively in Nigeria. Unmet needs for child spacing decreased by three percent. Over seventy percent of women have never discussed FP with their partners and other people. Over sixty percent of Women neither visited a health facility (HF) nor were visited by a health worker in 2003. Forty-eight percent of the women approved of FP in 2003, which represents an increase of five percent of 1999.Over ninety percent wanted their last child and current pregnancy in 2003. However, there are incidences of mistimed and unwanted births and pregnancies. There was an association between contraceptive use and all the socio-demographic variables examined. The age of the respondent, current use of contraceptive, age at first sexual intercourse and partner’s education have positive effects on fertility. However, education of women, place of residence and age at marriage has a negative effect on fertility.Total fertility rate has remained stable in Guinea. It increased by eight percent in rural areass and decreased by fifteen percent in urban areass between 1992 and 2005. In Guinea, fertility decreased by over twenty percent for women with primary and secondary education between 1992 and 2005. Unmet needs for child spacing and limiting declined by three and one
percent. Over eighty percent of women have not discussed FP with their partners and other people. Women that did not visit a HF remained stable at sixty-six percent, while ninety-two percent were not visited in their homes by a FP worker. The women who approved of FP were forty-seven percent, showing a decline by eleven percent from 1999. Over eighty percent of the women wanted their last child and current pregnancies in 2005. There was an association between contraceptive use and all the socio-demographic variables examined.The significance of the regression coefficient shows that the age of the respondent and
current use of contraception has a positive effect on TCB. Education, place of residence, age at marriage and religion have negative effects on TCB.Conclusion: The general patterns observed do not give confidence that fertility is declining
or showing a tendency towards declining in Nigeria. In addition the use of modern
contraceptive has no bright future as a vehicle to regulate fertility in Nigeria. Fertility in Guinea shows some potential for reduction which may be transitory because some of the indicators that favour fertility reduction seem to be losing their grip. There are overall negative attitudes to contraceptive use and FP in Guinea. This is similar to the observed situation in Nigeria. Expectation that intensified campaigns on contraceptive use and FP will reduce fertility and ultimately reduce population growth in Nigeria and Guinea is not likely to
be met, because the desire for large families abound. / Magister Scientiae - MSc
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:uwc/oai:etd.uwc.ac.za:11394/3636 |
| Date | January 2011 |
| Creators | Osuafor, Nwabuisi Godswill |
| Contributors | Stiegler, Nancy |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
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