本篇論文在panel data 的模型基礎下，將Hansen (1999)所提出的
panel threshold model與Arellano and Bond (1991)的panel dynamic model進行結合，成功推導出panel dynamic threshold model的模
型設定，本模型的特色在加入內生解釋變數落後項的動態解釋下，
進行門檻效果的檢定，以觀察實證資料是否存在顯著的門檻效果。
我們並進一步運用此panel dynamic threshold model 對於金融發
展與經濟成長間的互動關係進行實證分析，發現若不採用門檻變數
將實證資料進行區分，所獲得的實證結果將會受到金融發展程度較
高國家的資料所影響，而金融發展程度較低的國家資料卻因此喪失
其原本應具有的影響力。此外，若比較採用股市發展變數做為門檻
變數的實證結果和以銀行發展變數做為門檻變數的實證結果，則於
金融發展變數對於經濟成長影響的差異性上，以銀行發展變數做為
探討金融發展對於經濟成長影響性的門檻變數應是較為適合的選擇。 / The aim of this article is to investigate whether finance development has positive or negative relationship with the economic growth. We argue that the past studies do not reach consensus between finance development and the economic growth because the relationship may be indeed nonlinear. We plan to examine whether the effect of finance development on the growth depends on the threshold variable of bank development and stock market development. To examine this hypothesis, we develop a panel dynamic threshold model (PDTM) to test this hypothesis.
The PDTM is a direct extension of the recent two research strands when using panel data. One is the dynamic panel model of Arellano and Bond (1991), who consider the lagged dependent variable into the panel data. The other is the non-dynamic panel threshold model of Hansen (1999), who takes threshold effect into the panel data model. Past studies, however, did not take dynamic and threshold into account simultaneously.
Our PDTM thus incorporates the threshold into the dynamic panel data. Results demonstrate that the relationship between finance development and economic growth is nonlinear.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0922580161 |
| Creators | 林昌平, Lin, Chang-Ping |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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