由於住宅價格變動毫無預警制度，人民往往憑著個人主觀的判斷而決定何時購屋或售屋，而此種主觀判斷住宅市場利多及利空的觀念，對住宅市場的供需會產生失衡現象，因此是否可從經濟面的訊息找到住宅價格變動的答案，使住宅價格在尚未變動前，政府即已掌握資訊，提前做好穩定住宅價格的因應對策，使民眾依其需要而購屋，則是本研究之主要目的。
本研究從文獻中整理出影響住宅價格變動的七個總體經濟變數，這些總體經濟變數包含工資、物價、所得、貨幣供給額、股價、匯率及利率等，並利用向量自我迴歸模式(VAR)進行實證，以便較客觀的獲得變數間的落後期數及暸解變數間雙向、單向及領先、同步、落後情形，且進一步探討住宅價格與每一個總體經濟變數間影響程度大小及影響情形，以釐清各變數之間的關係。
本研究利用VAR模型進行住宅價格與總體經濟變數關係的研究，經由實證，得到下列的結論：
一、實證結果方面
本研究之實證主要有因果關係檢定與分析、變異數分解之分析及衝擊反應之分析三方面，其實證結果如下所述。
（一）因果關係檢定與分析
由因果關係檢定與分析中，得到股價、物價、匯率、貨幣供給額及利率均能做為住宅價格變動的領先指標。
（二）變異數分解之分析
由住宅價格之變異數分解中，得知住宅價格自身的解釋程度僅占三分之一，另三分之二被其他的總體經濟變數所解釋，顯示住宅價格受總體經濟變數的影響相當大；而從其他總體經濟變數之變異數分解中，得知住宅價格變動會干擾到總體經濟變數，而使總體經濟變數受干擾而變動變動。
（三）衝擊反應之分析
從總體經濟變數對住宅價格的衝擊反應分析圖中可以明顯看出除工資外，其餘總體經濟變數變動對住宅價格造成的衝擊均相當明顯，但匯率及利率對住宅價格的衝擊是負向的。
住宅價格對所得、股價、匯率及利率的衝擊相當明顯，而其對匯率的衝擊是負向。
二、政策應用方面
政府的決策過程中常會有時間落後的現象，而本研究實證的目的則是要使政府能事先掌握住宅價格的變動，並提前做好穩定住宅價格的因應對策，減少政府決策過程的時間落後現象，而實證結果應用至政策方面的內容則由以下說明之。
（一）藉由因果關係檢定與分析的實證內容，可以縮短政府對住宅價格不合理變動問題認定落後的時間。
（二）從變異數分解之分析的實證內容中，可以使決策者在解決住宅價格問題時，將行動落後的時間減少。
（三）由衝擊反應之分析中，可以使政府在執行穩定住宅價格政策時，將衝擊落後的時間縮小。 / Since there is no alarm system in the change of housing prices, people often decide when to buy or when to sell based on personal and subjective judgement. Such concept to judge subjectively whether the housing market is bull or bear will cause unequilibrium in the supply and demend of the housing market. There it is possible to find out the answers to the change of housing prices from economic side so that the government can have enough information and can be prepared in the reaction to stabilizing the housing prices, and so that the public can buy house according to their needs is the main purpose of this project.
Seven variables in macroeconomics influencing the change of housing prices have been taken from reative literature, including wage, commodity price, income, money supply, stock price, exchange rate, and interest rate. VAR has been employed to verify so that the more objective lagging period among variable can be known, and the bi-directional, uni-directional, leading, contemporaneous, and lagging situation among variables can be understood. Furthermore, the degree and the status of influence of each macroeconomic variable to the housing price will be investigated to clarify the relations among the variables.
The present project investigate the relations between housing price and macroeconomic variables. We have the following findings:
I、In Empirical Study:
The empirical study in this project includes causal relation test and analysis, the analysis of variable decompositon, and the analysis of impact response. The results are shown in the following:
(I) Causality Test and Analysis
In the causality test and analysis, we find out that stock price, commodity price, exchange rate, money supply and interest rate all can be the leading indicators in the change of housing prices.
(II) The Analysis of Variable Decomposition
It is learned from the variable decomposition of housing prices that housing price can only explain one third of the cause in its change, the other two thirds are explained by other macroeconomic variables. It shows that housing prices are subject to the influence of macroeconomic variables greatly.
From the variable decomposition of other macroeconomic variables, we know that the change in housing prices will affect macroeconomic variables so that the macroeconomic variables will change.
(III) The Analysis of Impact Response
It can be obviously seen from the analysis figure of the impact response of the macroeconomics to housing prices, all macroeconomic variables will cause obvious impact to housing prices expect for wage. However, both exchange rate and interest rate have negative impact to housing prices.
Housing prices' impact to income, stock prices, exchange rate and interest rate is quite obvious, among which, the impact to exchange rate is negative.
II、Policy Application
It is a common phenomenon that there often will be lagging in time in government's decision making. The purise of the empirical study in this project is to let the government to know in advance the change of housing prices and to let the government to know in advance the change of housing prices and to let the government be prepared in the reaction of stabilizing the housing prices to minimize the lagging in the decision making process. The contents of application of the empirical study to policy are explained in the following:
(I) With the empirical results of the change of the causality test and analysis, the time for the government to recognize the unreasonable changes in housing prices can be shortened.
(II) With the empirical results of the analysis of variable decomposition, the decision makers' lagging in the action responding to housing pricescan be minimized.
(III) With the analysis in impact response, the lagging in impact will be minimized when the government executing her housing price stabilizing policy.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/B2002003678 |
| Creators | 黃佩玲, Hwang, Pay Ling |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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