本研究同時探討房貸違約與提前清償終止行為，並對提前清償動機『出售』與『轉貸』予兼容並蓄。蒐集自H銀行房貸資料，運用多項式邏吉斯廻歸模型分析法，以總體經濟因子之有無分兩階段，對應變數-房貸終止行為(Y1)及提前清償動機(Y2)，採取雙層次深入實證。
實證結果：從機率模型配適度與解釋力之實證分析中，獲得一致結論，對於含有總體經濟因子-經濟成長率與CPI 年增率之模型，其所計算Cox & Snell及Nagelkerke之假 值分別為0.534及0.611，均大於0.5以上，其相對性與獨立性上，均具備較高的模型解釋力，為一較優之房貸違約與提前清償終止行為模型，其相關顯著影響因子如下：
一、對違約具有顯著影響之因子，包括：借款年限、初貸利率、LTV、保證人、次級房貸、部分提前清償、購屋投資、 PTI、DBR＞22、軍警公教人員、設二胎、區域台北市、區域新北市及CPI年增率等14項。
二、對提前清償具有顯著影響之因子，包括：初貸利率、次級房貸、部分提前清償、購屋投資、購屋自住、年資、設二胎、CPI年增率及經濟成長率等9項。
三、對提前清償動機-『出售』之顯著因子：次級房貸、部分提前清償、購屋投資、設二胎等4項。
四、對提前清償動機-『轉貸』之顯著因子：初貸利率、次級房貸、購屋自住、年資、設二胎、CPI年增率及經濟成長率等7項。。
本實證結果所建構含有總體經濟因子之房貸終止行為機率模型，以其顯著影響因子再深入探討提前清償-『出售』與『轉貸』之動機，使提前清償行為模式更精確性地呈現，有助於提供金融機構，在計算違約機率與提前清償機率之模型架構上及授信審核評估上，具貢獻價值之參考資訊。 / This research explores the default and prepayment on the termination behaviors of residential mortgages, as well as the motives of prepayment in house selling or refinancing. Mortgage data are collected from the H bank in Taiwan, using the multi-nominal logistic regression analytic method to explore the factors affecting the default and prepayment behaviors.
Empirical results show that loan period, initial mortgage rate, loan-to-value ratio (LTV), the existence of the guarantor, subprime mortgages, curtailment, investment purpose, payment-to-income (PTI), debt burden ratio exceeded 22 (DBR＞22), government employees or teachers, second lien, location in Taipei city, the new Taipei city and CPI annual rate of increase are the significant factors of default behavior. As for the variables on prepayment, the initial mortgage rate, subprime mortgages, curtailment, investment purpose, residential use, DBR＞22, the age of professional career, second lien, CPI annual rate of increase and economical growth rate are significant. For more detailed curtailment behavior, the empirical results show that house sale subprime mortgages, curtailment, residential investment purpose, second lien are significant factors. As for the variables in inter-bank refinancing initial interest rate, subprime mortgages, residential investment purpose, the age of professional career, second lien, CPI annual rate of increase and economical growth rate are significant factors.
Results of this research may provide financial institutions precious references on the mortgage default and prepayment behaviors. The mortgage industry can take into account of the significant results on the capital planning in the future.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0096923020 |
| Creators | 賴景苑 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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