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Previous issue date: 2017-08-18 / Empregamos o método de controle sintético para realizar um estudo de caso visando avaliar se o encolhimento econômico do Brasil durante o governo da presidente Dilma Rousseff foi causado por fatores domésticos ou internacionais. O estudo comparou os resultados da economia brasileira ao longo de toda duração desse governo em comparação com o potencial crescimento para o país. Estimamos esse contrafactual através de dados de países não afetados pelas políticas locais. Os resultados empíricos sugerem que, caso a economia brasileira tivesse seguido as mesmas tendências dos demais países, provavelmente teria experimentado um crescimento sustentável, muito diferente do que realmente ocorreu. / We use the synthetic control method to perform a case study to understand if the economic shrinking of Brazil during the government of President Dilma Rousseff was caused by domestic or international factors. The study compared the outcomes of the Brazilian economy under the entire government as opposed to what would have been the potential outcomes defined through a counterfactual estimated through foreign countries, thus unaffected by the local policies. The empirical results suggest that was Brazil to follow the same trends that the rest of the countries experienced, it would probably have experienced a sustainable growth, much different from what has actually happened.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:bibliotecadigital.fgv.br:10438/18706 |
| Date | 18 August 2017 |
| Creators | Cytrynowicz, Eduardo |
| Contributors | Masini, Ricardo Pereira, Nishijima, Marislei, Escolas::EESP, Marçal, Emerson Fernandes |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Source | reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas, instacron:FGV |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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