本文依據現代化理論之脈絡，探究總體經濟因素對於民主政治究竟存在何種影響，在方法論上則採取量化與質化的結合，以求各自擷長補短。
為探究經濟因素究竟是影響民主政體的「建立」、已建立民主政體的「存續」、亦或民主程度的「提昇」。本文首先將各國依其民主化時程及宗教文化的不同，區分為第二波民主化國家、第三波民主化國家及伊斯蘭國家，據此建立三個次模型及一個總體模型，並利用總體經濟資料進行量化分析。研究結果發現，經濟因素對於民主政體的「建立」與否並無影響，但良好的經濟表現則有助於已建立之民主政體的「存續」及民主程度的「提昇」；亦即現代化理論的外生說獲得支持。
為彌補量化研究之不足，本文並進一步以土耳其進行個案分析。個案分析的結果顯示，儘管影響土耳其民主政治發展的因素包含宗教勢力興起、經濟危機及軍方干政，但最根本的因素仍是經濟危機；在經濟危機之下，不論軍方或民間社會皆感受到壓力，民間轉向伊斯蘭教尋求安慰，軍方則藉安定社會與對抗宗教勢力等名義，發動政變而中止民主政治。 / Rested on the theories of modernization, this thesis inquired into how the macroeconomic performance influences the political development of democracy. The quantification and qualification approaches are adopted in the methodology for a complete perspective.
In order to explore whether the economic performance influences the establishment of democratic regime, the sustenance of established democratic regime, and the elevation of democratic level, this thesis classifies the countries as the democratic countries in the second wave of democratization, the democratic countries in the third wave of democratization and Islamic countries according to the agenda of democratization and religious culture difference. Based upon the three categories, the author builds up three secondary models and one general model and puts the macroeconomic materials in the quantitative analysis. The findings discover that the economic performance has nothing to do with the establishment of democratic regime. However, the well-performed economy does help consolidate the established democratic regime and elevate the democratic level as well. The conclusion implies that the exogenous theory of Modernization theory is substantiated.
In order to make up the insufficiency of the quantification research, the author takes Turkey for case study. The results reveal that the factors influencing the political development of democracy in Turkey include the rise of religious power, the economic crisis and the military intervention. Among the factors, the most crucial one is the economic crisis. Under the threat of economic crisis, the society turned to Islamism for consolation. Nevertheless, in the name of stable society and resistance to religious power, the military launched coup d'etat to interrupt the democracy.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0892520041 |
| Creators | 李欣儒 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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