This study aimed to combine avalanche statistics with climate change models in orderto assess how a change in precipitation patterns, snow depth and snow density canimpact the avalanche danger in Jämtland, Sweden. Existing climate model reportsfrom SMHI and the Swedish county administration offices were used, and avalanchestatistics were compiled using data from SEPA from 2017 to 2020.It was found that days with moderate avalanche danger are most common (56 %) andthat a lot of days the danger is considerable (33%). The most common avalancheproblem is wind-drifted snow. The results show that wind velocity of 8 m/s isconnected to considerable danger in over 80 % of cases and for 10 m/s even 90 %. Dailyprecipitation of 3 mm or more is also connected to considerable danger on 81% of days;independently of wind. Towards the end of the 21st century, precipitation in Jämtland in winter and spring isexpected to increase by up to 50 % whereas snow depth is likely to decrease so muchthat many places will not reach 100 cm anymore (under the conservative RCP8.5scenario). While the snow depth comes with shortened winter seasons, increasedprecipitation is shown to increase the danger level. It is therefore likely that theavalanche forecasting period will be shortened but intensified in terms of danger.In conclusion, this study confirms again that avalanches are difficult to predict, andthat climate change will not make this easier. This makes it essential to keep updatingthe avalanche information that is available not just in Sweden but across the globe.However, the results are inconclusive due to the shortage of data and due to thecomplex combinations of factors that can impact avalanche danger. Further researchis required. / <p>2021-07-02</p>
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:miun-43503 |
| Date | January 2021 |
| Creators | Kremp, Lea-Carlotta |
| Publisher | Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för ekoteknik- och hållbart byggande |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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